Posts with tag 'realtor'

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November 17, 2023   

California home sales remain muted in October as elevated interest rates keep homebuyers and sellers on the sideline, C.A.R. reports

• Existing, single-family home sales totaled 241,770 in October on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, up 0.3 percent from September and down 11.9 percent from October 2022.
  
  
• October's statewide median home price was $840,360, down 0.4 percent from September and up 5.3 percent from October 2022.
  
  
• Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 27.2 percent in October.
  
  

LOS ANGELES (Nov. 17) – California home sales were essentially flat in October, as the cost of borrowing remained elevated and housing inventory continued to be tight, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS^® (C.A.R.) said today.

Infographic: https://www.car.org/Global/Infographics/2023-10-Sales-and-Price

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 241,770 in October, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR^® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2023 if sales maintained the October pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

October's sales pace was up 0.3 percent on a monthly basis from 240,940 in September and down 11.9 percent from a year ago, when a revised 274,410 homes were sold on an annualized basis. Sales of existing single-family homes in California remained below the 250,000-unit pace for the second consecutive month. The annual decline was the 28th straight drop, but the decline was the smallest in the last four months.

"A sizable jump in interest rates kept home sales constrained in October and will likely hamper home sales for the remainder of the year," said C.A.R. President Jennifer Branchini, a Bay Area REALTOR^®. "Despite rates remaining elevated, many other factors have swung in favor of buyers recently including more properties staying on the market longer before selling and fewer homes selling over list price, which could motivate more sellers to offer concessions."

Home prices rose again from the year-ago level for the fourth straight month, as the statewide median price recorded its largest year-over-year gain in 17 months. California's statewide median price dipped 0.4 percent from September's $843,340 to $840,360 in October and rose 5.3 percent from a revised $798,140 recorded a year ago. While October's median price took a step back from the month prior, the month-to-month decline was smaller than the long-run September-to-October price adjustment of -1.5 percent observed in the last 44 years. Prices are expected to level off in the next couple of months, following the traditional seasonal pattern. Positive year-over-year price growth should remain throughout the rest of the year as housing supply is projected to be tight in the coming months.

"With the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes at the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting and recent economic news pointing to a slowing economy, mortgage rates have been coming down in recent weeks," said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. "If inflation continues to cool, we could see more improvement in mortgage rates than the Fed is currently projecting for next year, which would alleviate some pressure on both the buy and sell sides of the housing market in 2024."

Other key points from C.A.R.'s October 2023 resale housing report include:

• At the regional level, all major regions except one dipped in October on a year-over-year basis, with one dropping more than 10 percent from a year ago. The Central Valley region experienced the biggest sales dip of -11.3 percent from last year, followed by Southern California (-7.4 percent), the San Francisco Bay Area (-3.9 percent) and the Far North (-2.3 percent). The Central Coast (1.9 percent) was the only region that posted a sales increase from last October.

   

• Thirty-six of the 52 counties tracked by C.A.R. registered a sales decline from a year ago in October, with 16 counties dropping more than 10 percent and four counties falling more than 20 percent from last October. Del Norte (-47.4 percent) had the biggest dip in sales, followed by Stanislaus (-28.0 percent), and Tehama (-25.0 percent).Fifteen counties increased in sales from last year, with Trinity (600 percent) gaining the most year-over-year, followed by Napa (49.1 percent) and Lassen (46.7 percent).

• At the regional level, home prices increased from a year ago in all except one major region in October. The Central Coast recorded the largest year-over-year gain in its median price (12 percent) and was the only region with a double-digit price increase from a year ago.Three out of four counties within the Central Coast region posted an annual price gain, with Monterey (29.8 percent) and Santa Barbara (22.9 percent) both registering price gains of over 20 percent from the prior year. The Southern California region (6.5 percent), the San Francisco Bay Area (5.7 percent) and the Central Valley (4.0 percent) also experienced modest median price increases from a year ago. The Far North region (-4.3 percent) was the only region that registered a price decline from October 2022.

   

• Home prices improved in many counties across the state, but 13 counties continued to register a year-over-year decline in their median prices in October. Del Norte posted the biggest price decline with a drop of -21.1 percent from last October, followed by Mendocino (-17.7 percent) and Lassen (-14.8 percent). On the other hand, 39 counties recorded an annual median price increase, with Tehama (35.8 percent) recording the biggest jump, followed by Monterey (29.8 percent) and Santa Barbara (22.9 percent).

   

• At least half of the homes sold above their asking price in five California counties. Four of those five counties were in the Bay Area region. Alameda (72 percent) recorded the biggest share in the entire state, followed by San Francisco (67 percent), Santa Clara (65 percent) and San Mateo (58 percent). Glenn County (50 percent) in the Central Valley region was the remaining county with half of its homes selling above the asking price.

   

• Housing supply in California continued to shrink from a year ago in October as mortgage rates remained elevated. The statewide unsold inventory index (UII), which measures the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate, was 2.7 months in October 2023 and 3.1 months last October.
  
  
• Housing inventory in California slid back in October from the prior month as the market continued to grapple with high mortgage rates. The statewide unsold inventory index (UII) decreased -3.6 percent on a month-over-month basis and fell below last October by -12.9 percent. Active listings at the state level continued to dip on a year-over year basis for seven straight months, and a further decline in each of the last six months all registered more than 20 percent year-over-year. That said, mortgage rates have been coming down in recent weeks as the Fed paused rate hikes at the latest meeting and recent economic news pointed to a slowing economy. Further decline in mortgage rates should alleviate pressures on both the supply side and the demand side of the housing market in the coming months.
  
  
• Nearly two-thirds of all counties (31) registered declines in active listings from last year, with 27 of them dropping more than 10 percent on a year-over-year basis. Mono (-40.6 percent) posted the biggest year-over-year drop in October, followed by Contra Costa (-40.2 percent) and Merced (-35.1 percent). Nineteen counties recorded a year-over-year gain, with Mariposa registering the largest yearly gain of 38.1 percent, followed by Del Norte (31.8 percent) and Amador (29.1 percent). On a month-to-month basis, over half of the counties (28) experienced a drop in active listings, while 22 counties recorded a monthly increase as the market moved into the off home-buying season.
  
  
• New active listings at the state level dropped from a year ago for the 16^th consecutive month, but the rate of decline continued to decelerate. In fact, newly added for-sale properties dipped less than 10 percent for the first time in 12 months. The smaller year-over-year rate of decline was partly due to low-base effects though, as new active listings in October 2022 also recorded a sizeable drop from the prior year. Thirty-one of the 52 counties tracked by C.A.R. posted a decline in new active listings from October 2022, with Calaveras dropping the most at -35.9 percent, while new active listings in Merced (-35.5 percent) and Kings (-31.0 percent) both plunged more than 30 percent year-over-year.Twenty counties recorded a gain in new active listings from a year ago, with Mono (300 percent) adding the most, followed by Del Norte (64.3 percent) and Plumas (47.4 percent).
  
  
• The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 20 days in October and 28 days in October 2022.
  

• C.A.R.'s statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio* was 100 percent in October 2023 and 97.3 percent in October 2022.
  
  
• The statewide average price per square foot** for an existing single-family home was $421, up from $396 in October a year ago.
  
  
• The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 7.62 percent in October, up from 6.90 percent in October 2022, according to C.A.R.'s calculations based on Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage survey data.

Note:  The County MLS median price and sales data in the tables are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS^® throughout the state and represent statistics of existing single-family detached homes only. County sales data is not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as changes in the cost of a standard home. The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical than average prices, which are skewed by a relatively small share of transactions at either the lower end or the upper end. Median prices can be influenced by changes in cost, as well as changes in the characteristics and the size of homes sold. The change in median prices should not be construed as actual price changes in specific homes.

*Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its original list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

**Price per square foot is a measure commonly used by real estate agents and brokers to determine how much a square foot of space a buyer will pay for a property. It is calculated as the sale price of the home divided by the number of finished square feet. C.A.R. currently tracks price-per-square foot statistics for 51 counties.

Leading the way…® in California real estate for more than 117 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS^® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with more than 200,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

# # #

October 2023 County Sales and Price Activity

(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

r = revised

October 2023 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

r = revised

Article belongs to CAR.org

Mortgage interest rates were mostly lower compared to a week ago, according to data compiled by Bankrate. Average rates for 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed and jumbo loans decreased, while rates for adjustable rate mortgages rose.

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate loan at times exceeded 8 percent in recent weeks, following a jump in 10-year Treasury yields. After a period of record lows, mortgage rates climbed in 2022 as inflation spiked and the Federal Reserve took action. The Fed last hiked its key interest rate in July, which brought up borrowing costs on a variety of financial products, including mortgages.

The central bank held firm on another rate hike this month, indicating it expects rates to stay on the higher side for the foreseeable future.

"To have the full effect of keeping interest rates higher for longer, the Fed will maintain a posture that rates could go higher and that any rate cuts are quite a ways off," says Greg McBride, CFA, Bankrate chief financial analyst.

The rise in mortgage rates comes alongside appreciating home prices, both of which have kept homebuyers on the sidelines. More than half of home purchase mortgages originated in July had a monthly payment greater than $2,000, according to Black Knight. Twenty-three percent of originations in July had a payment over $3,000. The affordability squeeze is stretching budgets, and keeping many first-time homebuyers out of the market altogether.

Rates accurate as of November 16, 2023.

The rates listed here are marketplace averages based on the assumptions shown here. Actual rates available within the site may vary. This story has been reviewed by Suzanne De Vita. All rate data accurate as of Thursday, November 16th, 2023 at 7:30 a.m.

30-year fixed-rate mortgage drops, -0.08%

The average rate you'll pay for a 30-year fixed mortgage today is 7.75 percent, down 8 basis points over the last seven days. This time a month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was higher, at 8.03 percent.

At the current average rate, you'll pay principal and interest of $716.41 for every $100,000 you borrow. That's lower by $5.54 than it would have been last week.

Use our mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly payments and see how much you'll save by adding extra payments. The tool will also help you calculate how much interest you'll fork up over the life of your loan.

15-year fixed mortgage rate trends down, -0.03%

The average rate for the benchmark 15-year fixed mortgage is 7.09 percent, down 3 basis points from a week ago.

Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed mortgage at that rate will cost $904 per $100,000 borrowed. The bigger payment may be a little harder to find room for in your monthly budget than a 30-year mortgage payment, but it comes with some big advantages: You'll come out several thousand dollars ahead over the life of the loan in total interest paid and build equity much more quickly.

5/1 ARM moves up, +0.01%

The average rate on a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage is 6.98 percent, up 1 basis point over the last week.

Adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, are mortgage loans that come with a floating interest rate. In other words, the interest rate will change at regular intervals, unlike fixed-rate mortgages. These loan types are best for those who expect to refinance or sell before the first or second adjustment. Rates could be much higher when the loan first adjusts, and thereafter.

While borrowers shunned ARMs during the pandemic days of super-low rates, this type of loan has made a comeback as mortgage rates have risen.

Monthly payments on a 5/1 ARM at 6.98 percent would cost about $664 for each $100,000 borrowed over the initial five years, but could climb hundreds of dollars higher afterward, depending on the loan's terms.

Current jumbo mortgage rate retreats, -0.06%

The average jumbo mortgage rate is 7.77 percent, down 6 basis points over the last week. Last month on the 16th, the average rate on a jumbo mortgage was greater than 7.77, at 8.05 percent.

At today's average jumbo rate, you'll pay a combined $717.79 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That's down $4.16 from what it would have been last week.

Refinance rates

30-year mortgage refinance eases, -0.01%

The average 30-year fixed-refinance rate is 7.95 percent, down 1 basis point compared with a week ago. A month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed refinance was higher, at 8.14 percent.

At the current average rate, you'll pay $730.28 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That's lower by $0.70 than it would have been last week.

Where are mortgage rates heading?

Most rate watchers polled by Bankrate believe mortgage rates will rise this upcoming week. Looking to the remainder of the year, some forecasters still expect to see rates decrease, but the state of the U.S. economy and rising 10-year Treasury yields will be key factor.

The rates on 30-year home loans mostly follow the 10-year Treasury yield, which shifts continuously as economic conditions dictate, while the cost of variable-rate home loans mirror the Fed's moves.

"Economic data that is not too hot and not too cold would be helpful to mortgage rates and could get rates back down below 7 percent," says Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate, adding, "but that has to be true for inflation, job growth, wages and consumer spending."

What current rates mean for your mortgage

While mortgage rates fluctuate considerably,, there is some consensus that we won't see rates return to 3 percent for some time. If you're shopping for a mortgage now, it might be wise to lock your rate when you find an affordable loan. If your house-hunt is taking longer than anticipated, revisit your budget so you'll know exactly how much house you can afford at prevailing market rates.

You could save serious money on interest by getting at least three loan offers, according to Freddie Mac research. You don't have to stick with your bank or credit union, either. There are many types of mortgage lenders, including online-only and local, smaller shops.

"All too often, some [homebuyers] take the path of least resistance when seeking a mortgage, in part because the process of buying a home can be stressful, complicated and time-consuming," says Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for Bankrate. "But when we're talking about the potential of saving a lot of money, seeking the best deal on a mortgage has an excellent return on investment. Why leave that money on the table when all it takes is a bit more effort to shop around for the best rate, or lowest cost, on a mortgage?"

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