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October
18

October 18th, 2022 by

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October
18

October 18th, 2022 by

October 12, 2022

C.A.R. releases its 2023 California Housing Market Forecast

Market shift under way as mild recession and higher interest rates cut into housing demand.

  • Existing, single-family home sales are forecast to total 333,450 units in 2023, a decline of 7.2 percent from 2022's projected pace of 359,220.

  • California's median home price is forecast to decline 8.8 percent to $758,600 in 2023, following a projected 5.7 percent increase to $831,460 in 2022.

  • Housing affordability* is expected to drop to 18 percent next year from a projected 19 percent in 2022.

LOS ANGELES (Oct. 12) – A modest recession caused by an ongoing battle against inflation will keep interest rates elevated to suppress buyer demand and contribute to a weaker housing market in 2023, according to a housing and economic forecast released today by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.). 

The baseline scenario of C.A.R.'s "2023 California Housing Market Forecast" sees a decline in existing single-family home sales of 7.2 percent next year to reach 333,450 units, down from the projected 2022 sales figure of 359,220. The 2022 figure is 19.2 percent lower compared with the pace of 444,520 homes sold in 2021.

The California median home price is forecast to retreat 8.8 percent to $758,600 in 2023, following a projected 5.7 percent increase to $831,460 in 2022 from $786,700 in 2021. A less competitive housing market for homebuyers and a normalization in the mix of home sales will curb median price growth next year.

"With the market shifting as home sales and prices are predicted to temper next year, buyers and sellers are adapting to the new realities of the market," said C.A.R. President Otto Catrina, a Bay Area real estate broker and REALTOR®. "As sellers adjust their expectations, well-priced homes are still selling quickly. And for buyers: more homes for sale, less competition, and fewer homes selling above asking price, all point to a more favorable market environment for those who were outbid or sat out during the past two years when the market was fiercely competitive."

C.A.R.'s 2023 forecast projects a dip in the U.S. gross domestic product of 0.5 percent in 2023, after a projected uptick of 0.9 percent in 2022. With California's 2023 nonfarm job growth rate at 1.0 percent, up from a projected increase of 4.9 percent in 2022, the state's unemployment rate will edge up to 4.7 percent in 2023 from 2022's projected rate of 4.4 percent.

Stubbornly high inflation and growing economic concerns will keep the average for 30-year, fixed mortgage interest rates elevated at 6.6 percent in 2023, up from 5.2 percent in 2022 and from 3.0 percent in 2021 but will remain relatively low by historical standards.

"As the housing market continues to cool, the U.S. economy will moderate further and is expected to slip into a mild recession in the first half of next year," said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. "High inflationary pressures will keep mortgage rates elevated, which will reduce buying power and depress housing affordability for prospective buyers in the upcoming year. As such, housing demand and home prices will soften throughout 2023," Levine continued.

2023 CALIFORNIA HOUSING FORECAST

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022p

2023f

SFH Resales

(000s)

417.7

424.9

402.6

398

411.9

444.5

359.2

333.4

% Change

2.0%

1.7%

-5.2%

-1.2%

3.5%

7.9%

-19.2%

-7.2%

Median Price

($000s)

$502.3

$537.9

$569.5

$592.4

$659.4

$786.7

$831.5

$758.6

% Change

5.4%

7.1%

5.9%

4.0%

11.3%

19.3%

5.7%

-8.8%

Housing

Affordability

Index*

31%

29%

28%

31%

32%

26%

19%

18%

30-Yr FRM

3.6%

4.0%

4.5%

3.9%

3.1%

3.0%

5.2%

6.6%

p = projected
f = forecast

* = % of households who can afford median-priced home


Leading the way ...® in real estate news and information for more than 110 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States, with more than 217,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

                                                                # # #

ARTICLE BELONS TO CAR.ORG

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October
18

October 18th, 2022 by

October 18, 2022   


Rising interest rates depress September home sales and prices, C.A.R. reports

  • Existing, single-family home sales totaled 305,680 in September on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 2.5 percent from August and down 30.2 percent from September 2021.

  • September's statewide median home price was, $821,680 down 2.1 percent from August and up 1.6 percent from September 2021.

  • Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 16.5 percent in September.

LOS ANGELES (Oct. 18) – Following a brief sales bounce back in August, rapidly rising mortgage rates slowed California home sales in September and resumed the month-to-month declining trend that began in the spring, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

Infographic: https://www.car.org/Global/Infographics/2022-09-Sales-and-Price

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 305,680 in September, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2022 if sales maintained the September pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales. September's sales pace was down 2.5 percent on a monthly basis from 313,540 in August and down 30.2 percent from a year ago, when 438,190 homes were sold on an annualized basis.

Home sales have dipped for 15 straight months on a year-over-year basis, and it was the second time in the last three months that sales dropped more than 30 percent from the year-ago level. The monthly 2.5 percent sales decrease was worse than the long-run average of 0 percent change recorded between an August and a September in the past 43 years. Sales in all price segments continued to drop by 25 percent or more year-over-year, with the sub-$300k price range falling the most at 36.7 percent. Sales of million-dollar homes fell by double-digits again for the fourth consecutive month, with the high-end market segment dipping 25.6 percent from the same month last year. 

"With interest rates rising rapidly since the beginning of the year, buyers and sellers are having difficulties adapting to the market's new 'normal,'" said C.A.R. President Otto Catrina, a Bay Area real estate broker and REALTOR®. "As the market continues to evolve in the next 12-18 months, REALTORS® will be playing an ever-more important role as trusted advisors to guide their clients through the complicated buying and selling process and help them overcome their obstacles during these challenging times."

The statewide median home price continued to increase on a year-over-year basis in September, but the growth rate remained very mild compared to those observed earlier this year. At an increase of 1.6 percent year-over-year, September marked the fourth consecutive month with a single-digit annual increase. The less-than-2-percent growth rate in the statewide median price was much lower than the 6-month average growth rate of 6.7 percent recorded between March 2022 and August 2022. The -2.1 percent month-to-month decline in September was slightly lower than the long-run average of -1.8 percent recorded between an August and a September in the past 43 years. With mortgage rates rising and the average 30-year FRM approaching 7 percent in the past week, home prices will drop further in the coming months as affordability remains a challenge.   

"September's sales and price declines reaffirm our forecast for next year," said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. "High inflationary pressures will keep mortgage rates elevated, which will reduce homebuyers' purchasing power and depress housing affordability in the upcoming year. With borrowing costs remaining high in the next 12 months, a pull-back in sales and a downward adjustment in home prices are expected in 2023." 

Other key points from C.A.R.'s September 2022 resale housing report include:

  • At the regional level, sales continued to fall sharply from last year, with four of the five major regions falling more than 25 percent from last year. Southern California had the biggest annual drop in sales at 32.6 percent, as every county within the region experienced a sales decline of more than 30 percent in September. The San Francisco Bay Area (-26.6 percent), the Central Valley (-25.9 percent) and the Central Coast (-25.7 percent) also dipped more than 25 percent from last year, as the declines remained consistently high for all three regions. The Far North (-17.7 percent) continued to post the smallest declines of the five major regions, but it also has been dropping by double-digits for four straight months.

     

  • All but three counties tracked by C.A.R. posted sales drops from a year ago. Of the counties that recorded sales drops from last September, 45 of them fell more than 10 percent, and 36 counties plunged more than 20 percent from the same month last year. Mono had the biggest drop in sales at -42.9 percent, followed by Yuba (-41.1 percent), and Sonoma (-38.1 percent). Counties that experienced a sales decline had an average decrease of -25.5 percent in September. Only three counties posted sales increases from last September, with Glenn gaining the most year-over-year at 63.6 percent, followed by Lassen (43.8 percent) and Nevada (6.3 percent). On a year-to-date basis, San Benito had the sharpest decline in sales at -30.9 percent, while Lassen (5.8 percent) had the best sales performance of all counties when compared to last year.

     

  • Nearly two-thirds of all California counties experienced an increase in their median-prices. Prices were up from last year by double-digits in five counties in September, as compared to seven counties in the prior month. Lassen (31.2 percent) recorded the biggest price increase of all counties, followed by Mono (30.8 percent) and Plumas (19.6 percent). The median price in 17 counties dipped from the same month of last year, with Mariposa dropping the most at -25.4 percent. It was also the only county with a double-digit price dip from a year ago. Santa Barbara (-9.5 percent) posted the second largest median price decline, followed by Lake (-8.8 percent) and Amador (-7.5 percent).

     

  • Housing supply in California improved from a year ago and was unchanged in September from the prior month despite a decline in housing demand. The statewide Unsold Inventory Index (UII) was 2.9 months in September 2022 from 1.9 months a year ago. With closed sales dropping more than 25 percent and pending sales falling over 40 percent, active listings have been staying on the market significantly longer, which contributed to a surge in for-sale properties by 51.5 percent in September.

  • All but three counties tracked by C.A.R. recorded an increase in active listings from last September. Only Yuba County recorded a triple-digit year-over-year gain in for-sale properties, registering an increase of 116.7 percent from 12 months ago. San Benito came in second with an 89.8 percent boost in active listings in September, followed by Humboldt with a gain of 87.6 percent from last year. Despite an overall improvement in housing supply conditions, three counties experienced a dip in active listings from the same month of last year. Del Norte dipped the most again in September with a drop of -44.9 percent year-over-year, followed by Plumas (-11.2 percent), and Mono (-10.6 percent).

 

  • The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 22 days in September and 10 days in September 2021.
  • C.A.R.'s statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio* was 97.7 percent in September 2022 and 101.9 percent in September 2021.

  • The statewide average price per square foot** for an existing single-family home was $404, up from $393 in September a year ago.

  • The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 6.11 percent in September, up from 2.90 percent in September 2021, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate averaged 4.87 percent, compared to 2.45 percent in September 2021.

Note:  The County MLS median price and sales data in the tables are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS® throughout the state and represent statistics of existing single-family detached homes only. County sales data is not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as changes in the cost of a standard home. The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical than average prices, which are skewed by a relatively small share of transactions at either the lower end or the upper end. Median prices can be influenced by changes in cost, as well as changes in the characteristics and the size of homes sold. The change in median prices should not be construed as actual price changes in specific homes.

*Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

**Price per square foot is a measure commonly used by real estate agents and brokers to determine how much a square foot of space a buyer will pay for a property. It is calculated as the sale price of the home divided by the number of finished square feet. C.A.R. currently tracks price-per-square foot statistics for 50 counties.

Leading the way…® in California real estate for more than 110 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®(www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with more than 217,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

 

September 2022 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

September 2022

Median Sold Price of Existing Single-Family Homes

Sales

State/Region/County

Sept.

2022

Aug.

2022

 

Sept.

2021

 

Price MTM% Chg

Price YTY% Chg

Sales MTM% Chg

Sales YTY% Chg

Calif. Single-family home

$821,680

$839,460

 

$808,890

 

-2.1%

1.6%

-2.5%

-30.2%

Calif. Condo/Townhome

$620,000

$625,000

 

$600,000

 

-0.8%

3.3%

-12.5%

-34.8%

Los Angeles Metro Area

$750,000

$765,000

 

$730,000

 

-2.0%

2.7%

-2.4%

-32.4%

Central Coast

$920,000

$950,000

 

$886,900

 

-3.2%

3.7%

-2.8%

-25.7%

Central Valley

$456,000

$460,000

 

$450,000

 

-0.9%

1.3%

-6.9%

-25.9%

Far North

$380,000

$380,000

 

$370,000

 

0.0%

2.7%

-8.6%

-17.7%

Inland Empire

$562,240

$565,500

 

$520,000

 

-0.6%

8.1%

-2.3%

-33.4%

San Francisco Bay Area

$1,256,500

$1,250,000

 

$1,290,000

 

0.5%

-2.6%

-3.4%

-26.6%

Southern California

$783,380

$795,000

 

$755,000

 

-1.5%

3.8%

-3.8%

-32.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

San Francisco Bay Area

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Alameda

$1,240,000

$1,230,000

 

$1,300,000

 

0.8%

-4.6%

-2.8%

-26.5%

Contra Costa

$882,000

$870,000

 

$897,000

 

1.4%

-1.7%

-5.0%

-26.2%

Marin

$1,735,000

$1,626,000

 

$1,710,000

 

6.7%

1.5%

-12.0%

-3.3%

Napa

$987,000

$1,162,500

 

$950,000

 

-15.1%

3.9%

-15.6%

-21.6%

San Francisco

$1,650,000

$1,635,000

 

$1,750,000

 

0.9%

-5.7%

-5.4%

-25.8%

San Mateo

$1,860,500

$1,950,000

 

$1,975,000

 

-4.6%

-5.8%

8.3%

-27.3%

Santa Clara

$1,700,000

$1,650,000

 

$1,630,000

 

3.0%

4.3%

-0.4%

-26.4%

Solano

$587,000

$610,000

 

$570,000

 

-3.8%

3.0%

-2.6%

-23.3%

Sonoma

$810,000

$840,000

 

$754,000

 

-3.6%

7.4%

-10.3%

-38.1%

Southern California

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Los Angeles

$891,770

$854,960

 

$886,050

 

4.3%

0.6%

2.4%

-31.7%

Orange

$1,200,000

$1,200,000

 

$1,100,000

 

0.0%

9.1%

-5.8%

-30.9%

Riverside

$600,000

$620,000

 

$570,000

 

-3.2%

5.3%

-2.4%

-31.0%

San Bernardino

$480,000

$472,750

 

$437,000

 

1.5%

9.8%

-2.0%

-37.2%

San Diego

$899,000

$885,000

 

$850,000

 

1.6%

5.8%

-9.5%

-33.2%

Ventura

$850,000

$884,000

 

$815,000

 

-3.8%

4.3%

-20.5%

-36.0%

Central Coast

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monterey

$822,500

$842,500

 

$826,250

 

-2.4%

-0.5%

8.0%

-18.1%

San Luis Obispo

$875,000

$868,500

 

$755,000

 

0.7%

15.9%

-5.5%

-27.1%

Santa Barbara

$905,000

$1,112,500

 

$1,000,000

 

-18.7%

-9.5%

-4.9%

-27.9%

Santa Cruz

$1,217,500

$1,300,000

 

$1,190,000

 

-6.3%

2.3%

-8.5%

-29.7%

Central Valley

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fresno

$415,000

$405,000

 

$380,000

 

2.5%

9.2%

1.3%

-15.3%

Glenn

$327,000

$327,500

 

$327,500

 

-0.2%

-0.2%

38.5%

63.6%

Kern

$365,000

$373,250

 

$341,500

 

-2.2%

6.9%

-17.9%

-19.1%

Kings

$342,500

$321,750

 

$320,000

 

6.4%

7.0%

-8.9%

-10.9%

Madera

$410,000

$400,000

 

$375,000

 

2.5%

9.3%

-14.6%

-29.5%

Merced

$377,000

$385,000

 

$370,000

 

-2.1%

1.9%

1.1%

-31.1%

Placer

$645,000

$650,000

 

$650,000

 

-0.8%

-0.8%

-6.6%

-24.2%

Sacramento

$520,000

$535,000

 

$507,000

 

-2.8%

2.6%

-4.7%

-30.1%

San Benito

$750,000

$755,000

 

$792,500

 

-0.7%

-5.4%

104.8%

-28.3%

San Joaquin

$515,000

$530,000

 

$515,000

 

-2.8%

0.0%

-9.1%

-34.1%

Stanislaus

$445,000

$460,000

 

$440,000

 

-3.3%

1.1%

-11.1%

-35.9%

Tulare

$335,000

$350,000

 

$320,000

 

-4.3%

4.7%

-12.9%

-15.5%

Far North

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Butte

$429,780

$441,000

 

$440,880

 

-2.5%

-2.5%

1.7%

-11.8%

Lassen

$269,000

$199,000

 

$205,000

 

35.2%

31.2%

-14.8%

43.8%

Plumas

$475,000

$380,000

 

$397,000

 

25.0%

19.6%

-18.6%

-23.9%

Shasta

$375,000

$370,000

 

$365,000

 

1.4%

2.7%

-12.0%

-21.8%

Siskiyou

$352,450

$360,000

 

$315,000

 

-2.1%

11.9%

-10.6%

-17.6%

Tehama

$302,000

$301,000

 

$315,000

 

0.3%

-4.1%

3.3%

-26.2%

Other Calif. Counties

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Amador

$400,000

$447,450

 

$432,500

 

-10.6%

-7.5%

-8.9%

-32.9%

Calaveras

$450,000

$464,950

 

$468,500

 

-3.2%

-3.9%

-14.1%

-29.5%

Del Norte

$418,750

$378,960

 

$437,500

 

10.5%

-4.3%

-33.3%

-27.3%

El Dorado

$647,450

$631,000

 

$650,000

 

2.6%

-0.4%

-5.1%

-4.3%

Humboldt

$460,000

$465,000

 

$430,000

 

-1.1%

7.0%

-23.3%

-29.2%

Lake

$339,500

$330,000

 

$372,120

 

2.9%

-8.8%

-8.2%

-20.0%

Mariposa

$342,200

$450,000

 

$459,000

 

-24.0%

-25.4%

-21.1%

-11.8%

Mendocino

$535,000

$502,500

 

$500,000

 

6.5%

7.0%

-9.6%

-9.6%

Mono

$1,105,000

$797,500

 

$844,500

 

38.6%

30.8%

-14.3%

-42.9%

Nevada

$562,500

$580,000

 

$549,500

 

-3.0%

2.4%

-3.5%

6.3%

Sutter

$437,850

$459,000

 

$410,000

 

-4.6%

6.8%

-26.0%

-28.9%

Tuolumne

$399,500

$407,500

 

$382,500

 

-2.0%

4.4%

20.5%

-20.3%

Yolo

$635,000

$639,000

 

$612,500

 

-0.6%

3.7%

-22.9%

-29.9%

Yuba

$435,000

$422,500

 

$409,900

 

3.0%

6.1%

-14.9%

-41.1%

 

September 2022 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

September 2022

Unsold Inventory Index

Median Time on Market

State/Region/County

Sept.

2022

Aug.

2022

 

Sept.

2021

 

Sept.

2022

Aug.

2022

 

Sept.

2021

 

Calif. Single-family home

2.9

2.9

 

1.9

 

22.0

19.0

 

10.0

 

Calif. Condo/Townhome

2.6

2.4

 

1.7

 

21.0

17.0

 

10.0

 

Los Angeles Metro Area

3.1

3.1

 

1.9

 

23.0

19.0

 

10.0

 

Central Coast

2.5

2.7

 

1.9

 

19.0

16.0

 

10.0

 

Central Valley

2.9

2.8

 

1.9

 

20.0

16.0

 

8.0

 

Far North

4.1

3.8

 

2.9

 

38.0

30.0

 

18.0

 

Inland Empire

3.4

3.4

 

2.1

 

25.0

21.0

 

11.0

 

San Francisco Bay Area

2.3

2.2

 

1.6

 

21.0

20.0

 

11.0

 

Southern California

3.0

3.0

 

1.9

 

22.0

18.0

 

10.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

San Francisco Bay Area

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Alameda

2.0

2.1

 

1.4

 

17.0

16.0

 

10.0

 

Contra Costa

2.3

2.3

 

1.5

 

21.0

18.0

 

9.0

 

Marin

2.6

1.8

 

1.9

 

22.0

26.0

 

12.5

 

Napa

4.0

3.4

 

3.4

 

30.0

36.0

 

37.0

 

San Francisco

3.2

2.2

 

2.3

 

17.0

18.0

 

13.0

 

San Mateo

2.1

2.3

 

1.5

 

17.5

14.0

 

9.0

 

Santa Clara

1.8

2.0

 

1.4

 

16.0

16.0

 

9.0

 

Solano

2.5

2.8

 

1.6

 

36.0

34.0

 

27.0

 

Sonoma

2.9

2.6

 

2.1

 

36.0

31.0

 

34.0

 

Southern California

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Los Angeles

3.2

3.1

 

2.0

 

21.0

16.0

 

10.0

 

Orange

2.5

2.5

 

1.5

 

21.0

17.5

 

8.0

 

Riverside

3.3

3.2

 

2.0

 

26.0

22.0

 

11.0

 

San Bernardino

3.6

3.7

 

2.3

 

24.0

19.0

 

11.0

 

San Diego

2.7

2.5

 

1.6

 

19.0

15.0

 

9.0

 

Ventura

2.7

2.3

 

1.9

 

31.0

28.0

 

24.0

 

Central Coast

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monterey

2.8

3.1

 

2.2

 

17.0

20.0

 

10.0

 

San Luis Obispo

2.4

2.5

 

1.8

 

21.0

12.5

 

9.0

 

Santa Barbara

2.4

2.6

 

1.7

 

20.5

14.0

 

9.0

 

Santa Cruz

2.5

2.5

 

1.8

 

19.0

18.0

 

11.0

 

Central Valley

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fresno

2.8

2.9

 

1.9

 

17.0

13.0

 

7.0

 

Glenn

2.9

4.2

 

3.7

 

37.5

52.0

 

22.0

 

Kern

2.8

2.4

 

2.1

 

23.0

18.0

 

8.0

 

Kings

2.6

2.3

 

2.0

 

19.5

12.5

 

6.0

 

Madera

4.6

3.7

 

2.9

 

21.0

17.0

 

14.0

 

Merced

3.5

3.5

 

2.0

 

24.0

16.5

 

7.0

 

Placer

3.1

3.0

 

1.8

 

23.0

21.0

 

8.0

 

Sacramento

2.6

2.6

 

1.7

 

18.0

16.0

 

8.0

 

San Benito

3.4

7.7

 

2.2

 

34.0

30.0

 

11.0

 

San Joaquin

2.9

2.9

 

1.8

 

23.0

19.0

 

10.0

 

Stanislaus

3.1

2.9

 

1.8

 

21.0

16.0

 

9.0

 

Tulare

2.9

2.7

 

2.1

 

14.0

12.0

 

6.0

 

Far North

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Butte

3.3

3.4

 

2.4

 

20.5

19.0

 

9.0

 

Lassen

5.3

4.6

 

7.3

 

90.0

70.0

 

109.0

 

Plumas

4.8

4.1

 

4.1

 

97.0

64.0

 

87.0

 

Shasta

3.7

3.3

 

2.6

 

31.0

21.5

 

13.0

 

Siskiyou

4.9

4.5

 

3.8

 

55.0

51.0

 

20.0

 

Tehama

6.3

6.4

 

3.2

 

52.0

53.5

 

46.0

 

Other Calif. Counties

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Amador

4.4

4.8

 

2.3

 

42.0

28.5

 

14.0

 

Calaveras

3.7

3.3

 

2.7

 

69.0

57.5

 

56.0

 

Del Norte

5.1

3.2

 

4.5

 

81.5

58.0

 

89.5

 

El Dorado

3.1

3.3

 

2.7

 

43.5

32.0

 

13.0

 

Humboldt

4.7

3.6

 

2.4

 

18.5

18.5

 

10.0

 

Lake

7.3

6.7

 

5.2

 

32.0

39.0

 

17.0

 

Mariposa

5.3

3.8

 

4.3

 

23.0

13.0

 

7.0

 

Mendocino

6.9

6.4

 

4.3

 

65.0

74.5

 

45.5

 

Mono

4.1

4.6

 

2.6

 

80.0

55.0

 

82.0

 

Nevada

3.2

3.4

 

3.1

 

46.0

35.0

 

12.0

 

Sutter

3.3

2.6

 

2.1

 

27.5

23.0

 

11.0

 

Tuolumne

3.3

4.3

 

2.5

 

63.0

69.5

 

12.0

 

Yolo

2.6

2.3

 

1.6

 

24.0

16.0

 

8.0

 

Yuba

4.6

4.1

 

1.8

 

31.0

26.0

 

7.0

 

r = revised

ARTICLE BELONGS TO CAR.ORG

Categories: Uncategorized
Tags: california, Fallbrook, realtor, sunshine properties real estate, agent, for sale, house, homes, home, selling, house for sale, estate, manufactured home
October
11

October 11th, 2022 by

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October
11

October 11th, 2022 by

California Housing Market Report

Real Estate
By Gord Collins
October 01, 2022

Housing Market California

With a brief respite from rising mortgage rates homebuyers in California jumped at the window of opportunity. That demand drove up sales and average home prices across the state.

While home prices rose statewide during August, they actually showed a monthly decline across most regions including the Bay Area where prices dropped (-3.7%) and Los Angeles (-1.9%). Sales in the SF Bay area rose a substantial 9% during August.

It was a brief time for homeowners to get their price before a potential market slide this winter.

What's driving the housing market in California is the same as all other states — higher interest rates and insufficient supply. Supply will never suffice in beautiful California, but interest rates are a big question mark, in the eyes of some. Housing experts aren't sure what the FED will do this fall, but most expect further rate hikes which would hurt the real estate market.

CAR's monthly survey is shows the market in a downtrend. Buyers look to be disinterested and gloomy, making homes sales a tough business to be in. The rental market however is a different story.

The August Housing Market Sentiment Index actually showed 6 point improvement in August to 54. 3% of buyers said it is a good time to buy, but it's only 19% who believe that. 47% believe it will be easier to buy a home in the next 12 months, but only 8% plan to buy. 75% believe interest rates will fall, yet new inflation reports from the Cleveland Fed suggest inflation will be difficult to lower (8.1% August).  And 36% believe home prices will rise over the next 12 months, perhaps reflecting their true predictions of the 2023 housing market.

August Home Sales and Prices in California

The main chart from CAR reflects the new trend of rising sales and falling prices. Days on market doubled to 19 days, unsold inventory increased by 50%, and active inventory is up sharply in the last few months. Some sellers are eager to sell, which is a promising situation for buyers.

California Homes Sales and Price Changes.

California Homes Sales and Price Changes. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.

Active Inventory Rising

Active listings remain on a strong upward path even though some stock was sold in August.   47 of 51 CA counties saw an increase in active listings (YoY) in August (July had 46 that increased).

California active home listings last 3 years.

California active home listings last 3 years. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.

Home Prices

The large increase in monthly sales did little to prevent the slid of the avergage home price as that rose slightly in August to $339,460. And that is where California Association of Realtors forecasted it would be (around $334,000). However, 3 months remain in the year.

Home prices reclined strongest in Monterey (-8.8%), Santa Clara (-5.2), Lassen (23.5), Plumas (-17.8), Mariposa (-25.1), and Mendocino(-18.9).

California home prices in August 2022. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.

Despite market conditions, sellers are increasingly demanding a higher price, while closing prices fall.

California list prices vs sales prices history chart. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.

Hottest Cities in California

Those cities with the highest price growth reported by Redfin:

California Cities with highest price growth.

Cities with highest price growth. Screenshot courtesy of Redfin.

California has the highest percentage of people looking to buy elsewhere.  California, New York, District of Columbia, Massachusetts, and Illinois were the top 5 states homebuyers searched to move from. The top 5 states homebuyers searched to move to were Florida, Texas, Arizona, Maryland, and South Carolina.

CAR latest data. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.

The combination of housing market downturn risk, rising interest rates, and inflation are making more Californian homeowners consider selling their property this fall. That selling intention is lessened by desires to get a comfortable price, having to make extreme relocation choices, and entering into a new, more expensive mortgage.

It's perhaps the most difficult time for sellers to be able to sell their home.

Buyers in many states are still walking away from deals at a faster pace too given they can now walk away if they can't get the right financing, don't like inspection reports, and other reasons.  The desperate bidding war environment where they waived inspections, etc. has ended. According to Redfin, nationwide, buyers walked away from 15% of deals in August.

As layoffs in the corporate sector grow against fast rising mortgage rates, August and September's housing market decline may worsen the October and December outlook.

California Home Sales Rise

Home sales rose 6% to 313,540 in August on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, still down from June's volume (344,970) and down from last July 2021 (428,980 homes sold).

Thie chart below from CAR shows the sales decline is surprisingly similar to 2007 and 2020. Price discounts however took a short break, but could be back in the September, October and December reports.

 

"California's housing market stabilized briefly as a temporary reprieve on mortgage rates in July and early August brought buyers into the market. Active listings have passed their annual peak, and while homes are taking slightly longer to sell, the share of homes seeing price reductions has also stabilized to near pre-pandemic levels"  said C.A.R. President Otto Catrina.

 

California home sales chart last 17 years.

California home sales chart last 17 years. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.

Sales of single detached homes across all regions rose 6% last month, yet are down 24.4% from last August 2021. The biggest drops year over year were in the Central Coast region (-30.6%), Los Angeles Metro area (-29.1%), SF Bay Area (-29.1%) and the Inland Empire (-29.4%).

Sales picked up almost 16% on the Central Coast, while NAPA saw a 32.6% rise, while sales in Santa Barbara rose 39.2% last month. Home sales in Mariposa County surged 46% while prices dropped 25%.

Sales rose a little at all price points overall, yet the most affordable range under $300k saw an increase of 6%. Sales of million dollar homes ( between $1M to $2M) tailed off last month by 4%, with those above $2 million plummeting 18% vs May. Sales of million dollar homes leveled off.

 California Condo/Townhouse Prices Fall

Condo prices however did decline $20,000 (-3.1 %) from last month although sales ros e9.6% during August year are still down 28.6% year over year.

San Francisco, Monterrey, Santa Barbara, Fresno, Sutter and San Bernardino suffered big prices drops in August.

California condo sales across regions, August 2022.

California condo sales across regions, August 2022. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.

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Mortgage Rates

Mortgages did experience a reduction in growth rate, however with more Fed rate hikes expected, it should dampen enthusiasm and qualification for home loans for more buyers.

Mortgage rates last 6 years.

Mortgage rates last 6 years. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.

Housing Stats for Major Metros

The Los Angeles Metro Area saw a slight drop in price of 1.9% or $15,000 on average on the sale of a single family houses to $765,000.  Sales in Metro LA rose 5.75% from July and are down 29.1% from 12 months ago.

Los Angeles County single family homes rose 1.1% year over year growth to $854,960 in August. Unsold inventory dropped 6.1% month to month.

 

The Central Coast region saw its average price flat for the month, while sales grew 15.9% vs last month.

The San Francisco Bay Area saw prices actually fall 7% likely due to the downturn in the tech sector. Prices in the Bay Area fell 1.8% while sales 4.4% vs last month, and sales down 27.1% year over year.

In San Francisco itself, home prices fell $50,000 or 3.1% just in the last 30 days, while sales grew 9.1%.

Orange County saw prices fall 3.1% (-$31,000) to a new median of $1,200,000. San Bernardino County saw house prices fall $17,250. Riverside home prices fell only by $5000 again while sales grew 8.8%.

In San Diego County, homes prices fell by $45,000 to $560,000, a 4.5% drop vs July.

In Sacramento County, existing home prices fell 2.7% or ($15,000) while sales grew 6.6% in August.

California Exodus Pushing Prices up Elsewhere?

California is being blamed for fast rising housing prices in other states such as Utah and Idaho. An exodus of people and businesses might sound threatening but it may be that this state's housing market is invincible. People want to live or rent in California. There's always buyers for California properties in any of its cities. If high taxes, regulations, fires, floods, inflation and high prices can't scare buyers away, what could?

Looking for the best cities to buy a rental property and need to learn more about property management services? Get more insight and tips on the rental market on the ManageCasa Blog.

Inventory and Listings: California August

Inventory of California single family homes rose and active listings are up.

It took one more day to sell a home, from average of 11 days from 10 last month.

Active listings are staying on a strong unprecedented growth trend. This is mostly because buyers cannot afford to buy them.

 

California Housing Forecast

C.A.R.'s "2022 California Housing Market Forecast" predicted a 5.2% decline in existing single-family home sales to 416,800 units, down from the projected 2021 sales estimate of 439,800 units.  Their forecast for California median home prices was for a rise of 5.2% to $834,400 in 2022.

Now in October, 2022, we know the market has turned downward quickly. With the price at $839460 in October, we still have 3 more months of decline ahead.

Calls for an economic recession and flat 2023 sales year would have most experts seeing reduced sales and prices in California which is seeing businesses and residents flee to more tax and cost friendly states such as Texas and Florida.

Inflation came in at 8.5% in July yet food, rent and other prices rose.  If energy prices rise this fall, it's easy to predict strong Fed rate hikes to slow inflation further so they can meet their 2% inflation rate goals. Some are hoping the Fed will capitulate and pivot to avoid further hikes.

California Rent Prices

11 California cities ranked as most expensive for renters out of top 70 in the US according to a new report from Zumper. Here are the mid July California rent price stats provided by Zumper.com.

1 Bedroom 2 Bedrooms
Rank City Price M/M% Y/Y% Price M/M% Y/Y%
2 San Francisco, CA $3,000 3.4% 7.5% $3,950 -1.3% 7.0%
3 San Jose, CA $2,570 3.6% 19.0% $3,130 2.0% 15.9%
6 Los Angeles, CA $2,360 0.0% 18.0% $3,200 0.6% 16.4%
7 San Diego, CA $2,320 -6.1% 20.8% $2,910 -6.1% 14.6%
9 Santa Ana, CA $2,110 3.4% 24.1% $2,770 -3.5% 23.7%
10 Oakland, CA $2,100 2.4% 5.0% $2,800 1.1% 10.7%
14 Anaheim, CA $1,860 -2.6% 12.0% $2,470 -6.1% 22.3%
18 Long Beach, CA $1,710 -1.7% 6.2% $2,280 -5.0% 7.5%
24 Sacramento, CA $1,600 0.0% 8.8% $1,980 1.0% 7.6%
31 Fresno, CA $1,520 6.3% 25.6% $1,680 5.0% 15.1%
69 Bakersfield, CA $1,060 -1.9% 9.3% $1,380 0.7% 15.0%

 

CAR stats show lower income Californians were hurt by the pandemic and aren't participating in the recovery as yet. See more on the 2022 rental market forecast and the US rental market report.

 

Sales growth normally recedes in the fall months, but this fall season, the decline could be much steeper. Pending sales have been dropping even in the luxury home market. Pending sales of condos and townhomes have continued to drop.

California real estate is always a hot topic.  Find out more about rental property investment is wise and how  property management software is providing the foundation for profitable rental portfolios.

Read more on the San Francisco Market, San Diego market, and Los Angeles market.

Please note that CAR designates the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area as a 5- region that includes Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside , San Bernardino , and Ventura.  The Bay Area includes: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma.  And the Inland Empire includes Riverside and San Bernardino counties.

Is it a Good Time to Buy a Home in California?

According to C.A.R.'s monthly Consumer Housing Sentiment Index, in April, 59% of consumers said it was a good time to sell, up from 55% the previous. Only about 25% feel it is a good time to buy a home, unchanged from last year.

Certainly, the vaccinations will free up many older California residents perhaps to sell their homes at record prices.  However, homeowners may be very cautious about relinquishing their valuable property when moving is difficult and costly, and homes are very hard to find.  Without certain places to go, listings don't grow as expected.

It's absolutely the biggest seller's market ever across California. And perhaps more so for the pandemic destination cities within the state.

The top challenge to the housing market in CA now as the coming end of pandemic stimulus payments to homeowners, renters, and small businesses.  The end of the eviction moratorium could throw a large number of homes onto the market as owners can't meet their mortgage obligations.  The state's unemployment rate improved to 7.9% in May but remains one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation.

Relocating to New Cities for Safety, Room and Improved Lifestyle

CAR's forecast report shows the reasons people are relocating and buying, See some of that info below.

Sales and especially prices for condos in NAPA have rocketed (condo prices, see below, shot up almost 30% and sales rose 33% over February number). Condo prices in Shasta were up 81% over February and in Monterrey, were up 48%.

Although apartment rent prices are heading downward in the Bay Area as vacancy rates climb, other housing markets in the state are thriving. The demand is for single-family houses.  It may be that when the pandemic is over, both the big cities and the rural regions will have evolved considerably.

Home listings continue to plummet which means price pressures could be intense as stimulus money arrives and the recovery begins.  New funds would certainly help save landlords and the rental market, and support suburban housing markets around San Diego, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. See more on the Bay Area rental market.

Will California's Home Prices Continue to Rise into 2022?

A lot of buyers are asking whether home prices will rise or fall?  Renters are wondering if rent prices will fall? High demand, low mortgage rates, and low inventory will likely skew homes and condo prices higher.  The trend is here and the return of buyers is here.  A number of factors are contributing to California's positive sales stats:

  • desire to live away from the city in suburbs and rural regions and willingness top pay top dollar for homes
  • record-low mortgage rates
  • moving to regions (pandemic destination) that offer more room perhaps with an office or garden
  • wealthy buyers have the funds ready

"Low rates and tight housing inventory are contributing factors to the statewide median price setting a new record high three months in a row from June to August. A change in the mix of sales is another variable that keeps pushing median prices higher, as sales growth of higher-priced properties continued to outpace their more affordable counterparts," said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young.

California Realtor's Survey

The latest survey of Realtors shows fewer are withdrawing offer, more are listing new properties, and are not optimistic about sales or prices.

California Housing Market Forecast

C.A.R. Predicted More Home Sales and Higher Prices for 2021: Leslie Appleton-Young delivered her updated California housing market forecast for 2021.  She expected sales to continue to improve through 2021. The prediction is based on growing buyer demand that's pushed California's median price above $700,000 and low inventories that will cause price increases. As know now, sales have declined.

California's weekly showings index rose to 182.3% higher than it was in September of 2019.  Mortgage rates have dropped back down and purchase applications rose 24.2% on an annual basis last week.

Screenshot courtesy of CAR.org and their 2021 Market Forecast.

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California Economic Forecast

Car predicts a J-shaped economic recovery extending over the next 12 months. Of course this trend will affect home prices in the coming 6 months.

Infographic courtesy of CAR.org.

Small Towns and Cities Seeing More Interest

With workers trying work at home arrangements,we may see more workers able to move away from high rent neighborhoods, perhaps even out of California. Employers are more accepting of the need to work at home, and one major real estate service CEO (Redfin) reported that demand in smaller cities is higher than in major cities.

The expected strong pickup in interest in homes for sale lately within San Diego, Oakland, San Francisco, and Los Angeles is a little shaky, however the trend is visible.  

Booming Online Software Solutions

Realtors and property management pros are already testing out online maintenance scheduling and rent payment solutions.  ManageCasa's state of the art property management software integrates the global payment leader's platform is the industry model.  This might be the right time to make a platform switch. Check out online payments now.

 

Share the news and market insight on your blog!

This updated report covers important sats including home prices, sales, and recent home sales trends from CAR, NAR, DOT, St Louis Fed, NAHB, Statista, Zillow and more. For national home price tends see the US housing market.

The key story with Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, Santa Clara, San Diego, Orange County, Riverside, San Bernardino, etc. is the lack of listings.

See more on the US housing market, UK housing market, and Hawaii real estate market.  Find the best property management company near you.

NARPM Conference | Texas Housing Market | NARPM | Upcoming Trade Shows and Conferences | Property Management California | Switch Property Management Software | REALTOR Conference 2022 | Property Management Accounting Software | Cloud Property Management

 

Categories: Uncategorized
Tags: california, Fallbrook, realtor, sunshine properties real estate, land for sale, house, homes, home, mortgage , buying, selling, house for sale, estate, manufactured home
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