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English
February
22

February 22nd, 2024 by

For release:
February 16, 2024   

Tempering mortgage rates propel California home sales in January, C.A.R. reports

  • Existing, single-family home sales totaled 256,160 in January on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, up 14.4 percent from 224,000 in December and up 5.9 percent from 241,920 in January 2023.

  • January's statewide median home price was $788,940, down 3.8 percent from December and up 5.0 percent from $751,700 in January 2023.

  • Year-to-date statewide home sales were up 5.9 percent.

  • LOS ANGELES (Feb. 16) – California existing home sales rebounded in January to the highest level in six months as mortgage rates pulled back sharply at the end of 2023, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®(C.A.R.) said today.

    Infographic: https://www.car.org/Global/Infographics/2024-01-Sales-and-Price

    Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 256,160 in January, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2024 if sales maintained the January pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

    January's sales pace climbed 14.4 percent higher from the revised 224,000 homes sold in December and was up 5.9 percent from a year ago, when a revised 241,920 homes were sold on an annualized basis. While the increase in January was the first year-over-year sales gain in 31 months, the sales pace stayed below the 300,000-unit threshold for the 16th straight month and will likely stay below that level in the first quarter of 2024. With interest rates moderating sharply at the end of 2023 and leveling off nearly 100 basis points below the most recent peak, home sales should continue to grow year-over-year in February, but the improvement will be modest.

    "It's encouraging to see California's housing market kick off the year with positive sales growth in January," said C.A.R. President Melanie Barker, a Yosemite REALTOR®. "While we'll likely experience some ups and downs in home sales in the coming months as rates continue to fluctuate, the lending environment is expected to be more favorable in 2024, so the market should see more pent-up demand translate into sales."

    While California's statewide median home price decreased 3.8 percent from December's $819,740 to $788,940 in January, it registered a 5.0 year-over-year gain, the seventh straight month of annual price gains. The monthly price decline was due primarily to seasonal factors, and the January figure marked the first time in ten months that the median price dropped below the $800,000 benchmark. With mortgage rates softening since mid-October, home prices will likely maintain their upward momentum, and the market should continue to observe a mid- to single-digit, year-over-year growth rate in California's median price in at least the early part of 2024.

    "The increase in new active listings for the first time in 19 months was great news for the California housing market," said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. "With rates climbing back up to a two-month high earlier this week due to the latest inflation concerns, potential home sellers could hit the pause button on listing their house on the market and wait until rates begin to ease again. In general, rates are expected to decline later this year, and available inventory should slowly improve throughout 2024."    

    Other key points from C.A.R.'s January 2024 resale housing report include:

    At the regional level, sales in all major regions rose in January on a year-over-year basis, with the Central Valley region recording the largest increase of 12.5 percent from a year ago. The Far North (6.8 percent), San Francisco Bay Area (6.2 percent) and Central Coast (5.2 percent) were the other major regions posting modest sales growth of 5 percent or more from the prior year. Southern California (2.2 percent) also registered an increase from a year ago, but at a more moderate pace.

  • Fourteen of the 52 counties tracked by C.A.R. registered a sales decline from a year ago, with 7 counties dropping more than 10 percent year-over-year and four counties falling more than 20 percent from last January. Mono (-50.0 percent) registered the biggest sales dip, followed by Trinity (-33.3 percent) and Glenn (-25.0 percent). Thirty-six counties logged a sales increase from last year, with Siskiyou (72.7 percent) gaining the most year-over-year, followed by San Benito (66.7 percent) and Tuolumne (62.2 percent).
  • At the regional level, all but one major region recorded an annual increase in their median prices. The San Francisco Bay Area posted a 10.6 percent year-over-year jump. The median price in Southern California (7.0 percent), Central Valley (6.8 percent) and the Central Coast (3.5 percent) also jumped from a year ago in January, but the growth was more moderate. The Far North (-2.0 percent) was the only region of the state to record a price decline when compared to January 2023, with three of its seven counties posting price drops from a year ago.
     
  • Home prices continued to show year-over-year improvement in many counties, with 41 counties across the state registering a median price higher than what was recorded a year ago. Santa Barbara (43.8 percent) registered the biggest price increase in January, followed by Mendocino (27.0 percent) and Marin (26.9 percent). Nine counties logged median price decreases from last year, with Siskiyou dropping the most at -14.7 percent, followed by Lassen (-11.9 percent) and Glenn (-11.1 percent).
  • Unsold inventory statewide increased 28 percent on a month-over-month basis and declined from January 2023 by -8.6 percent. The Unsold Inventory Index (UII), which measures the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate declined from 2.5 months in December to 3.2 months in January. The index was 3.5 months in January 2023.
  • Active listings at the state level dipped again on a year-over year basis for the 10th straight month in January, but the decline was the smallest ― a sign that active listings might be heading in the right direction as the market approaches the spring homebuying season.That said, while the reprieve in mortgage rates might have provided some hope that more for-sale properties would be listed as we kick off the new year, the jump in mortgage rates in the past couple of weeks could cause potential sellers to reconsider listing their homes for sale.

  • Active listings declined from a year-ago in 35 counties in January, with 17 of them registering a double-digit decrease at the beginning of this year.Contra Costa had the biggest year-over-year dip at -36.0 percent, followed by Mono (-33.3 percent) and Santa Clara (-31.8 percent).Sixteen counties recorded a year-over-year gain, with El Dorado jumping the most with an increase of 32.0 percent from a year ago, followed by Santa Barbara (31.6 percent) and Nevada (28.9 percent).On a month-to-month basis, 34 counties recorded a drop in active listings last month while 18 counties recorded a monthly increase in for-sale properties in January with active listings in Shasta (143.6 percent) more than doubled.
     
  • New active listings at the state level increased from a year ago for the first time in 19 months, and the annual increase was the largest since May 2022. The jump in new active listings contributed to an improvement in overall active listings, and the sharp drop in rates at the end of 2023 was likely the motivating factor that convinced more homeowners to sell their homes.
  • The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 32 days in January and 39 days in January 2023.
  • C.A.R.'s statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio* was 98.9 percent in January 2023 and 96.5 percent in January 2023.
     
  • The statewide average price per square foot** for an existing single-family home was $386, up from $370 in January a year ago.
     
  • The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 6.64 percent in January, up from 6.27 percent in January 2023, according to C.A.R.'s calculations based on Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage survey data.

Note:  The County MLS median price and sales data in the tables are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS® throughout the state and represent statistics of existing single-family detached homes only. County sales data is not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as changes in the cost of a standard home. The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical than average prices, which are skewed by a relatively small share of transactions at either the lower end or the upper end. Median prices can be influenced by changes in cost, as well as changes in the characteristics and the size of homes sold. The change in median prices should not be construed as actual price changes in specific homes.

*Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its original list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

**Price per square foot is a measure commonly used by real estate agents and brokers to determine how much a square foot of space a buyer will pay for a property. It is calculated as the sale price of the home divided by the number of finished square feet. C.A.R. currently tracks price-per-square foot statistics for 51 counties.

Leading the way…® in California real estate for more than 117 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with more than 200,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

# # #

January 2023 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

 

January 2024

Median Sold Price of Existing Single-Family Homes

Sales

State/Region/County

Jan.

2024

Dec.

2023

 

Jan.

2023

 

Price MTM% Chg

Price YTY% Chg

Sales MTM% Chg

Sales YTY% Chg

Calif. Single-family homes

$788,940

$819,740

 

$751,700

r

-3.8%

5.0%

14.4%

5.9%

Calif. Condo/Townhomes

$630,000

$635,000

 

$580,000

 

-0.8%

8.6%

-7.8%

14.2%

Los Angeles Metro Area

$750,000

$760,000

 

$700,000

 

-1.3%

7.1%

-14.6%

2.8%

Central Coast

$926,000

$979,500

 

$894,500

 

-5.5%

3.5%

-11.3%

5.2%

Central Valley

$460,000

$462,000

 

$430,750

r

-0.4%

6.8%

-9.2%

12.5%

Far North

$361,500

$364,500

 

$369,000

r

-0.8%

-2.0%

-6.9%

6.8%

Inland Empire

$559,280

$570,000

 

$540,000

 

-1.9%

3.6%

-12.1%

5.3%

San Francisco Bay Area

$1,100,000

$1,182,000

 

$995,000

r

-6.9%

10.6%

-24.3%

6.2%

Southern California

$790,000

$790,000

 

$738,250

 

0.0%

7.0%

-12.2%

2.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

San Francisco Bay Area

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Alameda

$1,103,000

$1,175,000

 

$1,015,000

r

-6.1%

8.7%

-33.6%

-10.7%

Contra Costa

$770,000

$800,000

 

$725,000

r

-3.8%

6.2%

-17.0%

8.7%

Marin

$1,524,500

$1,555,000

 

$1,201,000

 

-2.0%

26.9%

-38.3%

56.8%

Napa

$989,500

$925,000

 

$790,000

 

7.0%

25.3%

-30.6%

3.0%

San Francisco

$1,530,000

$1,450,000

 

$1,385,000

 

5.5%

10.5%

-20.5%

-5.1%

San Mateo

$1,975,000

$1,800,000

 

$1,625,000

 

9.7%

21.5%

-45.7%

-7.0%

Santa Clara

$1,710,440

$1,725,000

 

$1,530,000

 

-0.8%

11.8%

-22.8%

19.7%

Solano

$575,000

$562,000

 

$580,000

 

2.3%

-0.9%

2.0%

11.5%

Sonoma

$829,900

$812,930

 

$781,930

 

2.1%

6.1%

-19.0%

15.1%

Southern California

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Los Angeles

$833,000

$853,340

 

$778,540

 

-2.4%

7.0%

-17.1%

0.8%

Orange

$1,320,000

$1,300,000

 

$1,194,500

 

1.5%

10.5%

-14.8%

-1.0%

Riverside

$610,000

$607,500

 

$585,000

 

0.4%

4.3%

-9.7%

-0.1%

San Bernardino

$477,500

$506,000

 

$446,900

 

-5.6%

6.8%

-15.9%

15.6%

San Diego

$925,000

$911,500

 

$824,900

r

1.5%

12.1%

-0.9%

0.0%

Ventura

$870,000

$882,500

 

$815,000

 

-1.4%

6.7%

-10.0%

15.8%

Central Coast

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monterey

$825,000

$929,000

 

$850,000

 

-11.2%

-2.9%

-9.7%

-4.1%

San Luis Obispo

$910,000

$956,000

 

$795,750

 

-4.8%

14.4%

-8.3%

28.7%

Santa Barbara

$1,280,000

$1,190,000

 

$890,000

 

7.6%

43.8%

-1.7%

1.8%

Santa Cruz

$1,190,000

$1,050,000

 

$1,170,000

 

13.3%

1.7%

-32.1%

-9.8%

Central Valley

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fresno

$406,000

$397,000

 

$375,000

 

2.3%

8.3%

-9.6%

15.5%

Glenn

$349,000

$349,500

 

$392,500

 

-0.1%

-11.1%

-47.1%

-25.0%

Kern

$375,000

$374,180

 

$357,500

 

0.2%

4.9%

6.4%

4.0%

Kings

$365,000

$380,000

 

$365,000

 

-3.9%

0.0%

-31.0%

-7.5%

Madera

$466,080

$410,500

 

$387,460

 

13.5%

20.3%

-41.9%

28.4%

Merced

$380,000

$385,000

 

$369,000

 

-1.3%

3.0%

15.1%

45.2%

Placer

$620,000

$633,020

 

$620,000

r

-2.1%

0.0%

-14.8%

13.8%

Sacramento

$515,000

$535,000

 

$499,000

r

-3.7%

3.2%

-10.8%

5.5%

San Benito

$760,000

$789,890

 

$719,000

 

-3.8%

5.7%

-9.1%

66.7%

San Joaquin

$530,000

$530,000

 

$509,900

r

0.0%

3.9%

-2.2%

21.9%

Stanislaus

$450,000

$462,500

 

$410,000

r

-2.7%

9.8%

3.8%

24.6%

Tulare

$349,000

$362,000

 

$332,720

 

-3.6%

4.9%

-11.0%

3.2%

Far North

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Butte

$390,000

$418,000

 

$410,000

 

-6.7%

-4.9%

-18.3%

-14.7%

Lassen

$229,000

$272,500

 

$260,000

 

-16.0%

-11.9%

-68.2%

-22.2%

Plumas

$363,620

$360,000

 

$350,000

 

1.0%

3.9%

0.0%

54.5%

Shasta

$395,000

$355,760

 

$373,750

 

11.0%

5.7%

11.6%

11.6%

Siskiyou

$329,000

$331,500

 

$385,860

 

-0.8%

-14.7%

-32.1%

72.7%

Tehama

$340,000

$305,000

 

$314,900

 

11.5%

8.0%

18.2%

4.0%

Trinity

$402,500

$287,000

 

$380,000

 

40.2%

5.9%

-66.7%

-33.3%

Other Calif. Counties

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Amador

$444,500

$415,000

 

$399,000

r

7.1%

11.4%

40.7%

22.6%

Calaveras

$434,500

$437,500

 

$455,000

 

-0.7%

-4.5%

29.4%

7.3%

Del Norte

$295,000

$487,000

 

$300,000

 

-39.4%

-1.7%

-25.0%

28.6%

El Dorado

$650,000

$660,000

 

$575,000

r

-1.5%

13.0%

-9.2%

25.3%

Humboldt

$410,000

$425,000

 

$395,000

 

-3.5%

3.8%

-42.6%

5.9%

Lake

$325,000

$315,000

 

$310,000

 

3.2%

4.8%

21.6%

4.7%

Mariposa

$431,500

$442,000

 

$372,500

 

-2.4%

15.8%

-25.0%

0.0%

Mendocino

$494,000

$599,000

 

$389,000

 

-17.5%

27.0%

68.0%

55.6%

Mono

$1,304,500

$1,052,500

 

$1,125,500

 

23.9%

15.9%

-66.7%

-50.0%

Nevada

$525,000

$537,000

 

$470,000

 

-2.2%

11.7%

-22.7%

31.6%

Sutter

$435,000

$429,500

 

$395,000

r

1.3%

10.1%

-14.3%

-16.3%

Tuolumne

$360,750

$444,000

 

$388,000

 

-18.8%

-7.0%

5.3%

62.2%

Yolo

$600,360

$630,000

 

$530,000

r

-4.7%

13.3%

13.4%

40.7%

Yuba

$455,000

$440,000

 

$425,000

 

3.4%

7.1%

7.0%

9.5%

r = revised

  

January 2023 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

January 2024

Unsold Inventory Index

Median Time on Market

State/Region/County

Jan.

2024

Dec.

2023

 

Jan.

2023

 

Jan.

2024

Dec.

2023

 

Jan.

2023

 

Calif. Single-family homes

3.2

2.5

 

3.5

r

32.0

26.0

 

39.0

r

Calif. Condo/Townhomes

3.2

2.5

 

3.5

 

31.0

27.0

 

36.0

r

Los Angeles Metro Area

3.4

2.7

 

3.8

 

32.0

27.0

 

41.0

r

Central Coast

3.6

3.0

 

3.5

 

29.0

19.0

 

33.0

r

Central Valley

3.1

2.6

 

3.5

r

30.0

25.0

 

39.0

r

Far North

4.6

3.2

 

4.9

r

43.0

37.0

 

50.0

r

Inland Empire

4.0

3.3

 

4.4

 

40.0

34.0

 

46.0

r

San Francisco Bay Area

2.3

1.5

 

2.6

r

31.0

23.0

 

33.0

r

Southern California

3.2

2.6

 

3.6

 

30.0

26.0

 

39.0

r

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

San Francisco Bay Area

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Alameda

1.9

0.9

 

2.0

r

19.0

15.0

 

27.0

r

Contra Costa

1.7

1.2

 

2.4

r

28.5

18.0

 

31.0

r

Marin

2.5

1.5

 

4.5

 

57.5

66.0

 

72.0

 

Napa

6.0

4.1

 

5.9

 

104.0

85.0

 

84.0

 

San Francisco

2.8

1.5

 

2.9

 

85.0

48.0

 

49.5

r

San Mateo

2.7

1.1

 

2.4

 

17.5

17.0

 

22.0

 

Santa Clara

1.8

1.1

 

2.5

 

11.0

12.0

 

22.5

 

Solano

2.7

2.9

 

2.9

 

49.0

45.0

 

58.0

 

Sonoma

3.1

2.5

 

3.3

 

65.0

61.5

 

43.5

 

Southern California

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Los Angeles

3.2

2.6

 

3.7

 

28.0

23.0

 

37.0

r

Orange

2.7

2.0

 

3.1

 

28.0

24.0

 

41.0

r

Riverside

4.0

3.3

 

4.3

 

40.0

32.0

 

45.0

r

San Bernardino

3.9

3.3

 

4.7

 

40.0

38.0

 

47.0

r

San Diego

2.6

2.2

 

2.7

 

21.5

18.0

 

32.0

r

Ventura

2.9

2.4

 

3.4

 

37.0

37.0

 

41.0

r

Central Coast

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monterey

3.9

3.2

 

3.9

 

29.0

14.0

 

33.0

 

San Luis Obispo

3.6

3.1

 

4.3

 

31.0

27.0

 

41.0

r

Santa Barbara

3.5

3.2

 

2.6

 

21.5

14.5

 

18.5

 

Santa Cruz

3.6

2.2

 

3.3

 

40.0

24.0

 

35.0

 

Central Valley

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fresno

3.5

3.1

 

4.2

 

31.0

21.0

 

36.0

r

Glenn

4.3

1.9

 

2.9

 

10.0

54.0

 

36.5

r

Kern

2.8

2.8

 

3.1

 

24.0

19.0

 

32.5

 

Kings

3.6

2.2

 

3.5

 

22.0

42.0

 

53.0

 

Madera

6.5

3.5

 

7.2

 

52.5

30.0

 

38.0

r

Merced

3.2

3.2

 

4.4

 

47.0

36.0

 

47.5

r

Placer

3.0

2.4

 

3.8

r

35.0

33.0

 

43.0

r

Sacramento

2.4

2.0

 

2.7

r

26.0

27.0

 

39.5

r

San Benito

3.7

3.0

 

5.6

 

55.5

39.0

 

27.5

 

San Joaquin

2.6

2.4

 

2.9

r

31.5

22.0

 

46.0

r

Stanislaus

2.7

2.7

 

3.3

r

31.0

19.0

 

36.0

r

Tulare

3.7

3.0

 

3.8

 

28.0

26.0

 

34.5

 

Far North

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Butte

3.8

3.1

 

3.9

 

29.0

27.0

 

50.0

r

Lassen

13.1

4.2

 

10.9

 

41.0

47.0

 

128.0

 

Plumas

4.2

4.9

 

6.9

 

89.0

102.0

 

85.0

r

Shasta

3.6

1.6

 

4.2

 

37.0

33.5

 

41.5

 

Siskiyou

8.4

6.1

 

13.2

 

27.0

37.5

 

134.0

r

Tehama

4.0

5.0

 

5.8

 

69.0

83.5

 

66.0

 

Trinity

43.0

14.2

 

NA

 

258.0

139.5

 

33.0

 

Other Calif. Counties

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Amador

4.3

6.6

 

4.6

r

64.0

34.0

 

58.0

r

Calaveras

4.0

5.2

 

4.4

 

54.5

69.5

 

81.0

 

Del Norte

9.2

7.3

 

10.1

 

38.0

69.0

 

63.0

r

El Dorado

4.7

3.2

 

4.4

 

58.5

50.0

 

51.0

r

Humboldt

7.7

4.1

 

6.8

 

30.5

37.5

 

24.0

 

Lake

7.3

8.8

 

6.4

 

93.0

55.0

 

59.0

r

Mariposa

6.2

4.8

 

5.4

 

71.5

31.0

 

65.5

r

Mendocino

6.4

11.7

 

8.4

 

96.0

109.0

 

131.0

 

Mono

9.5

2.8

 

6.3

 

21.5

71.5

 

160.5

 

Nevada

3.6

2.7

 

3.9

 

50.0

53.0

 

50.0

r

Sutter

2.6

2.4

 

2.8

 

16.0

28.0

 

40.0

r

Tuolumne

3.2

3.9

 

5.2

 

55.5

48.0

 

66.0

r

Yolo

2.6

2.7

 

3.0

r

40.5

34.0

 

44.5

r

Yuba

4.2

4.7

 

4.9

r

57.0

36.0

 

45.5

r

r = revised

 

Categories: Uncategorized
Tags: avocados, california, Fallbrook, groves, realtor, sunshine properties real estate, land for sale, agent, for sale, house, homes, home, mortgage , buying, selling, house for sale, estate, manufactured home
February
13

February 13th, 2024 by

California Housing Market Report

Real Estate
By Gord Collins
January 19, 2024

Housing Market California

Both Realtors, investors, home buyers and renters across California continue to wait in limbo for the 2024 California housing market to unfold.  Is this spring the "inflection point" the media have touted for markets?

Realtor Sentiment in December.

California Realtor Sentiment in December. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.org.

Is this the year, frustrated buyers will finally have the opportunity to buy, or will rising home prices leave them all behind? While mortgage rates and payments declined in December, home and condo prices climbed slightly. And as the charts below reveal, active listings are weakening. Despite growing optimism in consumers, the properties simply aren't there nor affordable.

Improving Sentiment is Noteworthy

Surveys show consumer sentiment is rising and Realtor's outlook is positive as well. Most of it might be ignoring the lagging effects of the rapid FED rate hikes, and focusing solely on cheaper mortgages coming. But sellers will still face steep challenges in selling their homes.

And stats show that homeowners aren't listing their homes. And new reports have it that baby boomers aren't willing to let go of their homes. There doesn't seem to be a solution for the housing crisis, and as the US and California economy return perhaps later this year, it's easy to see home prices in California picking up pace.

California Association of Realtors' latest report reveals single-family home sales across the state stayed flat for December 2023, while being down 7.1% from Dec 2022.

The statewide median price for houses fell .3% from November, yet is still up 4.3% from 12 months ago.

Home prices follow normal seasonal pattern.

Home prices follow normal seasonal pattern. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.org.

Home Prices Still in Upward Trend

Are new record prices predicted for 2024? Despite the seasonal trend, as you can see in the CAR chart below, home prices fell last year with a decided reversal in 2023.

Home Price Growth Chart California.

Home Price Growth Chart California. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.

Home Sales in December

Sales fell again in December. However, year over year we saw a shocking decline of 24.8% in sales. 2023 was a year many would like to forget. And now the question is, will 2024 bring improvement? As you'll see below in the charts, the trend is toward fewer listings and higher prices. That's not necessarily good news for buyers or rental property investors, as sellers feel they can get a better price later.

Homes sales as bad as the Great Recession.

Homes sales as bad as the Great Recession. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.org.

Supply Issues

Sales vs List Price, California.

Sales vs List Price, California. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.org.

 

Demand Never Seems to Fade in California

While the state has suffered a major loss of businesses and residents, there is a continuous supply of new residents arriving and businesses being formed. The attraction of the Golden State never seems to falter.

The FED continues to struggle with its battle with inflation while sending signals both ways regarding expected rate cuts this year. There's lots to consider in weighing the California real estate market outlook besides mortgage rates. Consumer spending, which has supported the economy may have to continue doing so, until more housing can be built and small business gets full traction again.

Sales of existing resale homes rose very slightly at a seasonal rate of 224,000.

The good news is that mortgage rates have stayed below last October's levels and will likely fall further as the year progresses. Without knowing how the FED will react to a slowing economy, it's difficult for buyers and sellers to know what to do.

Mortgage rates and payments decline.

Mortgage rates and payments decline. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.org

Current 2024 C.A.R. President Melanie Barker said, "The housing market had a tough year in 2023 as a shortage of homes for sale and high costs of borrowing continues its negative impact on housing inventory and demand. With mortgage rates expected to come down in the next 12 months, home sales will bounce back as buyers and sellers return to a more favorable housing market. Home prices should see a moderate increase in 2024 as well."

Sales in all major California housing regions dipped in December with the Central Valley and San Francisco regions seeing the largest declines (14.8% year over year) and (-11.8% year over year) respectively. 37 of 52 counties saw a reduction in sales year over year.

Home prices on the other hand rose in all regions with the Central Coast and the San Francisco Bay Area rising 12.6% in median price.
Unsold inventory fell 16.7% month over month across the state and supply was reduced from 3 to 2.5 days.

Active Listings

Active Listings declined year over and from November.

Active Resale Home Listings Drop.

Active Resale Home Listings Drop. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.org.

New Listings

California New Home Listings Still Negative.

New Home Listings Still Negative. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.org.

Housing Supply Chart

Housing supply continued its relentless slide as more than half 52 counties reported drops.

California Housing Supply Falls.

California Housing Supply Falls. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.org.

Home Prices County By County

The biggest home prices changes month to month occurred in Santa Barbara with a 32.2% rise to $1,190,000, San Bernardino up 6.5% to a new median price of $506,000.

The largest drop in prices came in San Francisco, down 5.5% to $1,450,000, San Diego down 4.3% to $911,500, Contra Costa down 7% to $800,000 and Alameda down 4.5% to $1,175,000.  Napa saw a price growth in December of  12% or $100,000 to $925,000.

Napa County after a 15.4% in price during October, saw a big downshift of 19.7% last month, which was up from 15.6% monthly price drop in September. Santa Barbara prices too fell again last month by 34.3%, after a 33% rise in October, and a 20.5% drop in September.

The Bay Area suffered huge drops in sales (-14.6%) and that was down 22.4% from 12 months ago. San Mateo home prices dropped .3% to $1,800,000, while in Monterey prices dropped fell 1.6% to $929,000. San Francisco home prices fell 5.5% whiles sales slumped 39%. Santa Clara too suffered a 17.3% drop.

San Bernardino bucked the trend with a 16.9% growth in sales.

In Southern California which has the biggest impact on the California average prices fell 4.2%. Orange County had sales drop 8.1% while prices jumped 14.9%. Los Angeles County saw prices drop 5% while sales declined 3%.

Condominium/Townhouse Market

As the stats reveal, condo prices fell $25,000 on average in December while sales slid 3.7%. Year over year, condo prices are still up 8.2%.

Condo Prices and Sales Year over Year.

Condo Prices and Sales Year over Year. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.org.

Condo Price California.

Condo Price California. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.org.

2024 Market Forecast

CAR felt optimistic in its 2024 housing market forecast with falling mortgage rates, rising prices, economic expansion, and with demand for homes strong.

Home prices are predicted to rise 6.2% to a record median price of $680,300 next year. Housing affordability will remain flat. Out of all of it, and despite an outmigration of Californians to low-tax states, the state remains viable and people want to buy homes here.

RedFin Report California

Redfin's house sales price numbers are just slightly below those of CAR.

Home price growth in California.

Home price growth in California. Screenshot courtesy of Redfin.

Cities with Highest Rent Price Growth

California Metros with strongest Price growth in December. Screenshot courtesy of Redfin.com

Zillow Report for California in December

 

Home Prices California, last 10 years.

Home Prices California, last 10 years. Screenshot courtesy of Zillow.com

 

Also, see the sales/price trends in other markets including the Atlanta Housing market, New Jersey Housing market, Nashville housing market, Denver Housing market, and Las Vegas housing market.

*  Many thanks to CAR, Redfin and Zillow for the market info and graphics.

Rental Property Management Excellence.

Rental Property Management Excellence. Share on Your Website or Social Channels!

Will California Home Prices Fall in 2024?

Although the buyer market is deteriorating, there are plenty of buyers with funds who can jump into the market for homes or rentals when mortgage rates ease.   Although rent prices are falling in California, and likely will further in 2024, there is always a possibility of higher California rent prices. as the economy rises from a short downturn. However, economists are divided on the economic outlook. With energy prices low and reshoring of manufacturing to the U.S, it's hard to get gloomy about 2024 and beyond.

When mortgage rates fall further, it could set off a wave of homes on the market. This could present financial issues for landlords as renters leave rentals to occupy their own homes.

Rent prices are down $45 per month according to Zillow's rental report for December 2023, and this down $230 from one year ago. There are 74,558 units for rent in its system.

The biggest factors for the housing market forecast:

  • timing of FED drops in high-interest rates and mortgage rates
  • inflation is easing, especially energy prices (for now)
  • unemployment is expected to increase
  • some return-to-head-office mandates are drawing Californians back to the big metros
  • home prices strongly bolstered by economy
  • supply is growing only slightly but not enough to fill buyer demand
  • tech sector doing well yet looming rate driven recession will impact Silicon valleys fortunes
  • repatriation of manufacturing will bolster US GDP and employment
  • continued exodus of residents and businesses to lower tax states

Forecasted for This Year

Unexpectedly for most Realtors, homeowners and home sellers, the debt ceiling crisis may result in upward pressure on interest rates.  If rates persist, it could deflate many of the optimistic projections for sales.  And prices would likely still rise given the severe housing shortages.

C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine predicted that "High inflationary pressures will keep mortgage rates elevated, which will reduce homebuyers' purchasing power and depress housing affordability in the upcoming year. With borrowing costs remaining high in the next 12 months, a pull-back in sales and a downward adjustment in home prices are expected in 2023."

Levine added, "Home prices will also moderate further over the next several months as interest rates remain elevated in the near term and seasonal factors come into play."

The baseline scenario of C.A.R.'s "2024 California Housing Market Forecast" sees an increase in existing single-family home sales of 22.9 percent next year to reach 327,100 units, up from the projected 2023 sales figure of 266,200. The 2023 figure is 22.2 percent lower compared with the pace of 342,000 homes sold in 2022."

The revised California median home price forecast is for a rise 0f 6.2% to $860,300 in 2024, a -1.5% drop this year to $810,000 from $822,300 in 2022. A persistent housing shortage and a competitive housing market will continue to put upward pressure on home prices next year.

California housing market forecast CAR Chart by Year.

California housing market forecast CAR Chart by Year. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.

The rental market however appears to be a different story from the home resales market. Rental property investors have a completely different opportunity to recover their costs (with well selected properties).

Californians Looking Elsewhere

California has the highest percentage of people looking to buy elsewhere.  California, New York, District of Columbia, Massachusetts, and Illinois were the top 5 states homebuyers searched to move from. The top 5 states homebuyers searched to move to were Florida, Texas, Arizona, Maryland, and South Carolina.

The combination of housing market downturn risk, rising interest rates, and inflation may anke Californian homeowners consider selling their property this fall. Yet, letting go of low, locked in rates is perhaps the key reason why many will not sell.  That selling intention is lessened by desires to get a comfortable price, having to make extreme relocation choices, and entering into a new, more expensive mortgage.

As layoffs in the corporate sector grow against fast-rising mortgage rates, August and September's housing market decline may worsen the October and December outlook.

The forecast for landlords and the rental sector is a little better. Those rental managers who use a next-generation property management software are most likely to generate the best profitability in 2023. See more on the rental market forecast. Find the best rental properties in California.

Looking for the best cities to buy a rental property and need to learn more about property management services? Get more insight and tips on the rental market on the ManageCasa Blog.

California Rent Prices

11 California cities ranked as most expensive for renters out of top 70 in the US according to a new report from Zumper. See recent California rent price stats provided by Zumper.com.

1 Bedroom 2 Bedrooms
Rank City Price M/M% Y/Y% Price M/M% Y/Y%
2 San Francisco, CA $3,000 3.4% 7.5% $3,950 -1.3% 7.0%
3 San Jose, CA $2,570 3.6% 19.0% $3,130 2.0% 15.9%
6 Los Angeles, CA $2,360 0.0% 18.0% $3,200 0.6% 16.4%
7 San Diego, CA $2,320 -6.1% 20.8% $2,910 -6.1% 14.6%
9 Santa Ana, CA $2,110 3.4% 24.1% $2,770 -3.5% 23.7%
10 Oakland, CA $2,100 2.4% 5.0% $2,800 1.1% 10.7%
14 Anaheim, CA $1,860 -2.6% 12.0% $2,470 -6.1% 22.3%
18 Long Beach, CA $1,710 -1.7% 6.2% $2,280 -5.0% 7.5%
24 Sacramento, CA $1,600 0.0% 8.8% $1,980 1.0% 7.6%
31 Fresno, CA $1,520 6.3% 25.6% $1,680 5.0% 15.1%
69 Bakersfield, CA $1,060 -1.9% 9.3% $1,380 0.7% 15.0%

 

Read more on the San Francisco Market, San Diego market, and Los Angeles market.

Please note that CAR designates the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area as a 5- region that includes Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside , San Bernardino , and Ventura.  The Bay Area includes: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma.  And the Inland Empire includes Riverside and San Bernardino counties.

Is it a Good Time to Buy a Home in California?

According to C.A.R.'s monthly Consumer Housing Sentiment Index, in April 2023, 59% of consumers said it was a good time to sell, up from 55% the previous. Only about 25% feel it is a good time to buy a home, unchanged from last year. With rent prices falling, is hanging on for a few more years wise?  Will you be searching for a new rental home? See national rent prices city by city and cost of living city by city.

Will California's Home Prices Continue to Rise in the next 12 months?

A lot of buyers are asking whether home prices will rise or fall?  Renters are wondering if rent prices will fall? High demand, low mortgage rates, and low inventory will likely skew homes and condo prices higher.  The trend is here and the return of buyers is here.  A number of factors are contributing to California's positive sales stats:

  • desire to live away from the city in suburbs and rural regions and willingness top pay top dollar or homes
  • record-low mortgage rates
  • moving to regions (pandemic destination) that offer more room perhaps with an office or garden>
  • wealthy buyers have the funds ready

"Low rates and tight housing inventory are contributing factors to the statewide median price setting a new record high three months in a row from June to August. A change in the mix of sales is another variable that keeps pushing median prices higher, as sales growth of higher-priced properties continued to outpace their more affordable counterparts," said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young.

California Realtor's Survey

The latest survey of Realtors shows fewer are withdrawing offer, more are listing new properties, and are not optimistic about sales or prices.

California Housing Market Forecast

C.A.R. Predicted More Home Sales and Higher Prices for 2021: Leslie Appleton-Young delivered her updated California housing market forecast for 2021.  She expected sales to continue to improve through 2021.

The prediction is based on growing buyer demand that's pushed California's median price above $700,000 and low inventories that will cause price increases. As know now, sales have declined.

California's weekly showings index rose to 182.3% higher than it was in September of 2019.  Mortgage rates have dropped back down and purchase applications rose 24.2% on an annual basis last week.

Share the news and market insight on your blog!

This updated report covers important stats including home prices, sales, and recent home sales trends from CAR, NAR, DOT, St Louis Fed, NAHB, Statista, Zillow and more. For national home price trends see the US real estate housing market.

The key story with Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, Santa Clara, San Diego, Orange County, Riverside, San Bernardino, etc. is the lack of listings.

See more on the US housing market, UK housing market, New Jersey market, Nashville market, and Hawaii real estate market.

 

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    This guidance is directed to financial institutions, lenders, and mortgage servicers in California whose customers may be experiencing financial hardship as a result of recent severe winter storms, flooding, and landslides. The Department of Financial Protection and Innovation recognizes the serious impact to borrowers in communities affected by these natural disasters and encourages lenders and servicers to work with these customers to meet their financial needs.

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