The high interest rates of the summer have translated to inflated borrowing costs for those applying for a mortgage. (GETTY IMAGES)
Mortgage rates rose for the second week in a row, according to Freddie Mac, with rates on a 30-year mortgage averaging 5.66%. That's nearly double the 2.87% interest rate seen during the same week last year. Rates also rose for 15-year fixed and 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages – both of which have substantially higher borrowing costs compared with just a year ago. Here are the current mortgage interest rates, as of Sept. 1:
30-year fixed: 5.66% with 0.8 point (up from 5.55% a week ago, up from 2.87% a year ago).
15-year fixed: 4.98% with 0.8 point (up from 4.85% a week ago, up from 2.18% a year ago).
5/1-year adjustable: 4.51% with 0.4 point (up from 4.36% a week ago, up from 2.43% a year ago).
"The market's renewed perception of a more aggressive monetary policy stance has driven mortgage rates up to almost double what they were a year ago. The increase in mortgage rates is coming at a particularly vulnerable time for the housing market as sellers are recalibrating their pricing due to lower purchase demand, likely resulting in continued price growth deceleration."
– Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, in a Sept. 1 statement
This summer's higher interest rates translate to inflated borrowing costs for mortgage applicants. Last year, when 30-year fixed mortgage rates averaged 2.87%, a homebuyer purchasing a $350,000 property with 20% down could expect a monthly principal and interest payment of $1,160. But with today's average rate of 5.66%, those monthly payments for the same loan would be considerably higher at $1,618.
WEEK OF SEPT. 2, 2021
WEEK OF SEPT. 1, 2022
Average Mortgage Rate
2.87%
5.66%
Monthly Principal & Interest Payment
$1,160
$1,618
Total Interest Paid
$138,142
$302,509
Total Mortgage Cost
$418,142
$582,509
*Borrowing costs for a $350,000 property on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 20% down payment.
As a consequence of much higher mortgage rates, homebuyers have had to adjust their expectations when it comes to maximum loan amount. To keep monthly payments about the same as before ($1,155 per month), a borrower with 20% down today would need to look at a home price of $250,000.
The strength in demand for lower-priced homes has led sellers to "recalibrate" their pricing strategy, as Khater says above. There simply aren't as many buyers who can afford the monthly payments on a $350,000 home compared with this time last year. And as you'll see below, this has led to a noteworthy slowdown in home price growth.
We now (finally) have concrete data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency that home price growth has meaningfully slowed. The index still hasn't yet posted a loss – home prices rose 0.1% between May and June – but it's a significant decline from the about 1.5% monthly growth seen in 2022 so far.
The slowdown in home price growth has led FHFA officials to declare home price deceleration, a welcome reprieve from the past two years of unsustainable levels of appreciation.
ERIKA GIOVANETTI
"Housing prices grew quickly through most of the second quarter of 2022, but a deceleration has appeared in the June monthly data," FHFA supervisory economist William Doerner says in a news release. "The pace of growth has subsided recently, which is consistent with other recent housing data."
There's a real possibility that home price growth will slow even more during the rest of the third quarter of the year, from July through September. It's even plausible that home prices will decline during this time, but there's no indication yet that future depreciation will erase the five- and six-figure equity gains many homeowners made over the past several years of rapid appreciation.
While this data may send signals of a housing recession for the nation's homebuilders – an indicator mentioned in last week's column – it may be good news for the many prospective buyers who had previously been priced out of the market due to the one-two punch of rising home prices and higher mortgage rates.
As home price growth moderates, homebuyers who had been waiting on the sidelines may be able to jump into a more balanced market. But the unfortunate reality is that these buyers may never get a chance to lock in a sub-3% rate for a 30-year mortgage, which will keep their monthly payments elevated despite cooling home prices. Mortgage rates are likely to stay higher until inflation reaches a more sustainable level, and that could take several years.
The good news: Homebuyers can potentially take advantage of a refinance a few years down the line, giving them an opportunity to reduce future borrowing costs while starting to build wealth through homeownership today.
CALIFORNIA AVOCADO EXPORT PROMOTIONS IN SOUTH KOREA EXCEED BENCHMARKED GOALS
Sep 06, 2022
With avocado handlers continuing to export California avocados to South Korea, the California Avocado Commission utilized Market Access Program grant funds to develop digital and in-store promotional activities in this market. Since avocados are relatively new to consumers in South Korea, these programs were designed to generate California avocado brand awareness as well as awareness of the nutritional value and versatility of the fruit. Throughout April and May of 2022, the Commission hosted verbal demos with California avocado signage, virtual and in-person cooking classes, partnered with celebrity chefs and ran online marketing to generate demand, increase sales and build loyalty for the Golden State fruit. All of the promotional acti...
California housing affordability slides to lowest level in nearly 15 years in second-quarter 2022 as home prices set record highs and interest rates surge, C.A.R. reports
Sixteen percent of California households could afford to purchase the $883,370 median-priced home in the second quarter of 2022, down from 24 percent in first-quarter 2022 and down from 23 percent in second-quarter 2021.
A minimum annual income of $199,200 was needed to make monthly payments of $4,980, including principal, interest and taxes on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at a 5.39 percent interest rate.
One-fourth of California home buyers were able to purchase the $677,000 median-priced condo or townhome. A minimum annual income of $152,800 was required to make a monthly payment of $3,820.
LOS ANGELES (Aug. 11) – Housing affordability in California fell below 20 percent and slid to the lowest level in nearly 15 years as home prices soared to record highs in April and May and interest rates jumped to levels not seen in more than 13 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.
The percentage of home buyers who could afford to purchase a median-priced, existing single-family home in California in second-quarter 2022 slid to 16 percent from 24 percent in the first quarter of 2022 and was down from 23 percent in the second quarter of 2021, according to C.A.R.'s Traditional Housing Affordability Index (HAI). California hit a peak high affordability index of 56 percent in the first quarter of 2012.
C.A.R.'s HAI measures the percentage of all households that can afford to purchase a median-priced, single-family home in California. C.A.R. also reports affordability indices for regions and select counties within the state. The index is considered the most fundamental measure of housing well-being for home buyers in the state.
A minimum annual income of $199,200 was needed to qualify for the purchase of a $883,370 statewide median-priced, existing single-family home in the second quarter of 2022. The monthly payment, including taxes and insurance on a 30-year, fixed-rate loan, would be $4,980, assuming a 20 percent down payment and an effective composite interest rate of 5.39 percent. The effective composite interest rate was 3.97 percent in first-quarter 2022 and 3.20 percent in second-quarter 2021. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit the highest level in more than 13 years in June as the Federal Reserve continued to raise rates aggressively in the second quarter.
With the median price of condominiums and townhomes reaching another record high in second-quarter 2022, affordability for condos and townhomes fell from the previous quarter. Twenty-five percent of California households earned the minimum income to qualify for the purchase of a $677,000 median-priced condo/townhome in the second quarter of 2022, which required an annual income of $152,800 to make monthly payments of $3,820. The second quarter 2022 figure was down from 37 percent a year ago.
Nationwide housing affordability also plunged in second-quarter 2022. Compared with California, nearly four in ten (38 percent) of the nation's households could afford to purchase a $413,500 median-priced home, which required a minimum annual income of $93,200 to make monthly payments of $2,330. Nationwide affordability was a revised 49 percent a year ago.
Key points from the second-quarter 2022 Housing Affordability report include:
Compared to the previous quarter, housing affordability in the second quarter of 2022 declined in all but two of 51 counties. Affordability remained level in Glenn and Santa Cruz counties.
In the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area, affordability declined from the previous quarter in all counties. Alameda County and Napa tied for the least affordable Bay Area counties, at just 15 percent of households able to purchase the $1,500,000 and $1,005,000 median-priced home, respectively. Twenty-eight percent of Solano County households could afford the $625,000 median-priced home, making it the most affordable Bay Area county.
In the Southern California region, housing affordability deteriorated in all counties. Orange County was the least affordable at 12 percent, while San Bernardino County was the most affordable at 30 percent of households able to purchase the $493,000 median-priced home.
In the Central Valley region, Kings County was the most affordable at 39 percent, and San Benito was the least affordable at 17 percent.
In the Central Coast region, Santa Barbara County was the least affordable at 10 percent, and Monterey and Santa Cruz tied for the most affordable at 13 percent.
For the state as a whole, Lassen (54 percent) remained the most affordable county in California in the second quarter of 2022, followed by Kings (39 percent), Glenn (36 percent) and Shasta (36 percent). Lassen County also required the lowest minimum qualifying income ($58,800) of all counties in California to purchase a median-priced home and was the only county in the state with a minimum required income less than $60,000.
Mono (6 percent), Santa Barbara (10 percent), San Luis Obispo (12 percent) and Orange (12 percent) were the least affordable counties in California, with each requiring at least a minimum income of $202,800 to purchase a median-priced home in the county. San Mateo required the highest minimum qualifying income to buy a median-priced home, surpassing the $500,000 benchmark for the first time to reach a record high of $512,000. Three other counties in California requiring a minimum qualifying income of over $400,000 in second-quarter 2022 were San Francisco ($450,800), Marin ($434,800) and Santa Clara ($428,400).
Housing affordability declined the most on a year-over-year basis in Kings, dropping 17.1 points from the previous year. Mariposa (14.8 points) and Siskiyou (14.4 points) had the second and the third largest year-over-year dips in the latest quarter. Like the rest of the state, interest rate and home price surges from a year ago were the primary factors that led to the sharp drop in affordability in these counties.
Leading the way…® in California real estate for more than 110 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with more than 217,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.
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CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Traditional Housing Affordability Index Second quarter 2022
Aralyn Tucker outside of her condo in Natomas on June 11, 2022. Photo by Julie Hotz for CalMatters
IN SUMMARY
Legislators propose a $1-billion-a-year down payment program for first-time buyers, given the high cost of housing and rising mortgage interest rates, in exchange for a partial stake.
First-time buyers often rely on family gifts to afford the down payments on their homes. Now California Legislators want the government to fill the role of generous relative.
Lawmakers are proposing creating a billion-dollar fund in this year's state budget that would provide California's first-time buyers either all of the money they need for a down payment, or very close to it, in exchange for partial ownership stakes in those residences.
The proposal, put forward by state Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins, comes as skyrocketing property prices broaden the divide between those who own their homes and those who rent in California. In the past year, Golden State homeowners gained $141,000 in home equity, on average, the housing research firm CoreLogic reported last week, more than in any other state.
California's rate of home ownership, at 56%, is second lowest in the country behind New York, according to the American Community Survey data from the census.
Atkins said the California Dream for All program is aimed at creating opportunities for lower- and middle-income buyers in a rapidly rising market, including those who have faced racial and economic barriers to homeownership.
"The California Dream for All program will give more people the chance to break free from the cycle of renting," Atkins said last month. "This has the ability to change people's lives."
The proposal is the subject of negotiations between the Legislature's Democratic supermajority and Gov. Gavin Newsom, also a Democrat, on how to spend a projected budget surplus of $97.5 billion. The legislature passed a budget on Monday that includes the proposal, though negotiations with Newsom continue on a final overall spending plan.
A spokesman for the governor declined to comment on the proposal, citing the ongoing negotiations. It was not included in the governor's original budget nor in his May revised budget.
A multi-billion dollar fund
The housing proposal – which would call for issuing revenue bonds of $1 billion a year for 10 years to create the fund — is the largest in a slew of proposals intended to promote homeownership this year. The proposal also includes $50 million in the budget this year, and $150 million per year after that to pay for the administrative costs of the program and the interest costs of the revenue bonds.
The program envisions helping some 7,700 borrowers a year, according to estimates made by the program's designers based on home price projections. A start date for the proposed program has not been indicated.
If approved, the program would begin issuing interest-free second mortgage loans covering up to 30% of a home's purchase price, though lawmakers expect many of the loans would cover 17%, asking borrowers to include 3% of their own money or pair the loan with other first-time buyer programs.
The interest-free loans would be paid back into a state fund whenever the home was sold, or if a bigger mortgage was acquired in a cash-out refinancing. For instance, if the fund provided 20% toward the purchase price of the home, the fund would get back its initial investment, as well as a 20% share of any increase in the home's value.
The program would reinvest those proceeds, giving the fund the ability to make new loans for eligible participants, even if prices have risen significantly.
As long as home prices rise, the plan would create equity for people who otherwise would have remained renters. The program also would generate enough returns for the state to help future homebuyers.
If prices fall, homeowners might still gain some equity and the fund would absorb the losses, program planners said.
Building generational wealth
The program is intended to build as much flexibility as possible. Buyers who have lived in historically low-income neighborhoods can receive priority for some of the funds and can use shared appreciation loans to buy in their current neighborhoods or buy homes elsewhere.
"We need to make sure that the state's homeownership assistance program serves people in all parts of the state, including in its high cost areas," said Micah Weinberg, chief executive of the nonprofit group California Forward, which oversaw drafting the proposal.
"We cannot wait until more housing is built for these communities to begin to build the generational wealth that they were locked out of and deeply deserve," he said during a recent legislative hearing.
The program would be open to buyers making less than 150% of the median income in their area, and it would target first-generation homebuyers as well as those with high student debt loads.
If approved, the program would significantly improve home affordability in California for the people awarded one of the loans, proponents say. If it had existed in 2021, for instance, it would have reduced the annual income needed to buy a median priced home of $786,000 by more than $30,000 to about $90,000, according to Kate Owens, a principal at HR&A Advisors, Inc., one of the economic consulting firms hired to devise the program.
The program is distinct from other down payment assistance programs in that most offer much smaller payments, often around 3% to 5% of the purchase price, in the form of grants or loans.
The proposed state fund allows homeowners to not put down a down payment, eliminating the need to save for that initial investment, which Atkins said is the biggest hurdle for many buyers in today's market.
These equity sharing arrangements often are referred to as shared appreciation mortgages. The California plan would be the largest attempted experiment with such home loans ever created in the U.S., designers of the program said.
Fewer can afford homes
Over a 40-year period the program could assist some 157,000 families with interest-free loans, said Gene Slater, chairman of CSG Advisors, another consultancy hired to design the program.
Lawmakers said they are trying to do more to support homeownership, especially now that the pandemic has spurred demand for single-family properties as remote workers seek more space, and as communities throughout the state are falling woefully short of homebuilding goals.
"Until California truly prioritizes affordable homeownership, a generation of Californians will be effectively barred from one of the most reliable forms of wealth generation available — owning a home," said Assemblymember Tim Grayson, a Democrat from Concord, in April.
Learn more about legislators mentioned in this story
D
TIM GRAYSON
State Assembly, District 14 (Concord)
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D
TONI ATKINS
State Senate, District 39 (San Diego)
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California's home price increases mean affordability has plummeted, even more so for Black and Latino families. Only 26% of California households overall earned the minimum annual income needed to buy a median-priced, single-family home last year. Just 17% of Black and Latino households could afford such a property, according to a report by the California Association of Realtors, which supports the creation of the down payment fund.
"Homeownership provides working families with the unparalleled ability to accrue generational wealth and experience financial stability through a fixed mortgage versus rising rents," said the California Homeownership Coalition, a group that includes the Realtors, the California Building Industry Association and Habitat for Humanity.
"These funding solutions are especially important for communities of color still facing disproportionately low homeownership rates because of decades-long discriminatory housing practices."
Potential complications
Richard Green, director of the University of Southern California's Lusk Center for Real Estate, put forward a competing research proposal that was not selected by the state. He supports the goals of the one under consideration but is concerned about how complicated it is.
"There are lots of things in life where the policy idea is great (but) executing it is hard," he said, adding that while the program would only be a fraction of the state's massive housing market, it could contribute to rising prices if it got bigger. "If this program scales it would almost certainly have at least some impact."
Andrew Caplin, a professor at New York University who wrote a book on shared equity programs, said he is eager to see the concept take off, but he has largely promoted the idea for private investors, not governments.
Caplin did not study the California plan, but he said he would be concerned that politicians might feel pressured to not demand repayment and "in the end, it will all be agreed that we can't really collect the money — like student loans."
Someone else's mortgage
Had it been in existence, the program could have helped a homebuyer such as Aralyn Tucker, 29, who moved to Sacramento in 2017 because she was priced out of the housing market of her hometown of San Jose.
Tucker, who has a master's degree in public policy andadministration from Sacramento State University, works in human resources at a private school. She was only able to afford a two-bedroom condominium in Sacramento after her parents contributed most of the down payment as a gift.
Buying a home was important, she said, because her family had moved at least four times before she turned 18, at times into unstable housing situations.
"Creating that generational wealth and creating that security has been really important to my parents," she said.
Down payment help was critical, because her mortgage payment is only $200 more than rent, she said, but she couldn't save for the down payment on her own.
"Folks in my generation, we have so many extra expenses that we're not able to set that cash aside as a down payment," she said.
"Here I am making enough money to afford $2,200 in rent each month that I paid on time every month, and yet, I wouldn't qualify for a mortgage because I don't have the down payment," she said. "We're constantly behind and we're paying into a system that doesn't give anything back to us regarding equity. I'm paying someone else's mortgage."
This article is part of the California Divide project, a collaboration among newsrooms examining income inequality and economic survival in California.
A California Association of Realtors study found fewer than one in five Black and Latino households were able to buy a median-priced, single-family home, underscoring California's income inequality and high housing costs.
Alejandro joined CalMatters from The Wall Street Journal, where he covered the West Coast for eight years. He previously wrote about housing and real estate for the Los Angeles Times and The Washington... More by Alejandro Lazo
CAC FIELD DAY TO DISCUSS GEM HIGH DENSITY, AVOCADO ROOTSTOCKS AND ORONDIS USE
Jul 18, 2022
The California Avocado Commission will host a Pine Tree Ranch Field Day on Tuesday, July 26 from 8:00 – 10:00 a.m. that will feature three informational sessions.
One session will be led by Dr. Ben Faber, UC Farm Advisor, who will showcase the GEM high density trial that is now 1-year-old. Ben will discuss how the trees have performed in the first year and compare and contrast the GEM variety and Hass.
Dr. Mary Lu Arpaia will share updated data concerning the rootstock trial taking place at Pine Tree Ranch, which includes 300 trees on 30 different rootstocks from the UC breeding program, Westfalia and Israel.
In addition, Dakota Camino with Syngenta Crop Protection will discuss the use of Orondis for control of...
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