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August
26

Selling avocados requires understanding market conditions, pressures from imported avocado volume, current inventory levels and consumer demands. The market statistics provided here are collected from AMRIC, USDA databases, and cooperative data sharing between avocado suppliers.

Need more information? Send us an email and tell us what you would like to see, or request specific statistics.

CALIFORNIA AVOCADO SOCIETY WEEKLY NEWSLINE* AVOCADO PRICES

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August
26

New Data Finds Dramatic Changes in California's Mortgage Market Since 2020: Fewer Loans, but Larger Amounts

Berkeley, CA, July 27, 2023 — New data released today by the nonpartisan California Policy Lab (CPL) shows a sharp downward trend in the number of new mortgages originated in California since late 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2020, 929,500 Californians took on new mortgages, and CPL projects that number fell 90% by the first quarter of 2023, with only 95,000 Californians taking on new mortgages. The new data is from the CPL's California Credit Dashboard which uses credit bureau data to provide near-real-time measures of the financial health of Californians.

During that same time period (Q4 2020 to Q1 2023), the size of the average mortgage loan in California grew by more than $125,000 – from $468,000 to about $594,000. Due to lags in reporting of mortgages to credit bureaus, the most recent four quarters of originations are projected.

"Far fewer Californians are taking out new mortgages, a trend that started even before the Federal Reserve began increasing interest rates," explains co-author Evan White, the Executive Director of the California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley. "The loans that are being made are on average much larger, indicating that the remaining market skews wealthier."

This reshuffling of the mortgage market is evident throughout California, but there are large regional differences in average loan amounts. In the Bay Area, the average new mortgage in the first quarter of 2023 was $731,400, compared to $439,300 in the Greater Sacramento region, and $285,800 in the Northern California region.

CPL also published updated research on Californians' financial health to the California Consumer Credit Dashboard, including a new chart focused on monthly payments and new map features that allow users to filter the population and compare custom time ranges.

This new version of the Dashboard includes 10 longitudinal charts for 6 types of debt (auto, credit card, home equity, mortgage, student, and other) and collections. The figures can be sorted by 7 age groups, 9 economic regions, and 5 credit ratings. The Dashboard data generally spans from Q1 2004 through Q1 2023.

Additional Findings from Q1 2023

  • The state's overall delinquency rate in Q1 2023 (counting all loan types included in the Dashboard) is 5.0%. That's a small decrease from the 5.3% delinquency rate in Q4 2022, but much higher than the pandemic low of 2.7% in mid-2021.
  • Average monthly payments on all major loan types continued to rise in nominal dollars. The average mortgage payment is now $2,360, up $150 over the same time last year. The average auto payment is $538, up $40 year-over-year.
  • The average new auto loan amount fell to $32,900, down from $35,700 last quarter. That's the first decline since early 2021.

More about the California Credit Dashboard
The Dashboard uses credit-bureau data from the University of California Consumer Credit Panel. All figures in the Dashboard are based on a 2% random sample of individuals. Where applicable, the results are multiplied by 50 to obtain the full-population estimate. A technical appendix provides detailed information about the data and underlying research. Several dozen faculty and graduate students from the University of California currently use this dataset for research.

###
The California Policy Lab translates research insights into government impact. Through hands-on partnerships with government agencies, CPL performs rigorous research across issue silos and builds the data infrastructure necessary to improve programs and policies that millions of Californians rely on every day.

Article belongs to Calpoly.org

August
26

Hard. Really hard. Both compared to how difficult it is in other states, and how challenging it was for previous generations of Californians.

In the late 1960s, the average California home cost about three times the average household's income. Today, it costs more than seven times what the average household makes.

While it's always been more expensive to be a homeowner in California, the gap with the rest of the country has grown into a chasm. The median California home is priced nearly 2.5 times higher than the median national home, according to 2019 Census data.

The pandemic hasn't cooled the housing market, either. Demand has long exceeded supply of homes for sale in California, and that's especially true now. But while many families are suffering the economic impacts of COVID-19, wealthier households with money to spend and capitalizing on low interest rates have driven up prices even more. As of August 2021, California's median home price hit $827,940 — the fifth all-time record in six months.

Who owns their house?

Despite relatively low mortgage rates, however, exploding housing prices have caused California's overall homeownership rate to dip significantly. Just more than half of the state's households own their homes — the third lowest rate in the country and the lowest rate within the state since World War II. 

And those homeowners skew significantly white. White Californians are twice as likely as Black Californians to own their home, according to 2019 Census data. The racial gap in homeownership has widened over the years, which also means Black Californians are less likely to build wealth over time, said Carolina Reid, associate professor of city and regional planning at UC Berkeley.

The issue has gained more attention in the Legislature.

But racial disparities are true in all dimensions of housing.

"Blacks and Hispanics are more likely to be cost burdened, more likely to live in overcrowded conditions, more at risk of eviction, and displacement," she said.

Rents dipped with the pandemic, but are still soaring

Rents are among the highest in the country in California, home to seven of the ten most expensive cities for tenants. The pandemic has changed things up — driving down rents in some of the most expensive cities and hiking rents in some more affordable ones. But affordability overall has only worsened with COVID-19.

San Francisco remains the most expensive city to rent in the United States, with the average rent for a two-bedroom apartment at $3,500 a month, according to Zillow. That's even after a 23% drop from last year. Fresno, at one point considered on the more affordable end of California housing, has seen a 39% hike in average rent since 2017, including a 12% increase during the pandemic.

The drop in homeownership plays a role here. As it has become more difficult to buy a home, wealthier people have remained stuck in the rental market — and driven up rent prices.

Wages can't keep up with rental costs

Median earnings for Californians are higher than the national average, and are significantly higher in certain regions like the Bay Area. But on average, income over the past two decades has not kept pace with escalating rents.

Before the pandemic, about half of California renters were rent burdened, which means that more than 30% of their income went toward rent, according to the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies. Nearly a third of Californians were severely rent-burdened, which means that more than half of their income went toward rent. 

The numbers are worse for families of color. A California Housing Partnership analysis found that in 2019, Black renter households were about twice as likely as white renter households to be severely cost burdened.

The pandemic only worsened these numbers. As unemployment skyrocketed and families lost wages, roughly one of every six tenants fell behind on rent payments, according to a study by the Little Hoover Commission.

It's a statewide problem

The extremes of California's housing crisis are concentrated in the Bay Area and greater Los Angeles, but the challenge is statewide. While San Diego, San Francisco and L.A. top the list of toughest rental markets in the country, cities including Sacramento and Fresno recently have experienced the largest year-over-year rent increases.

In most Central Valley cities, the majority of very low-income families are spending more than 30% of their paycheck on rent.

Homelessness is on the rise

The number of people experiencing homelessness is notoriously hard to track, but estimates are getting more accurate — and show that the problem is big, and worsening.

Newly released state numbers show that throughout 2020, nearly a quarter of a million people accessed homeless services through local agencies. About 160,000 were single adults, and nearly 85,000 in families with kids. Los Angeles County has the highest number of people experiencing homelessness, with about 90,000 people who accessed services in 2020.

That data — submitted by 42 of the 44 local agencies that manage homeless dollars and services across the state — was not previously compiled or made public. That number is dynamic, because someone may have been homeless at the start of the year, but housed by the end — or vice versa. 

The data also fails to count some individuals who never interacted with homeless providers and survivors of domestic violence who are omitted for safety purposes, according to Ali Sutton, the state deputy secretary for homelessness.

According to the state, nearly 40% of those people, or 91,626 individuals, moved into permanent housing last year — which could mean anything from moving back in with a family member to getting their own place. This overlaps with an unprecedented amount of funding going to fix the issue — $13 billion over the last three years.

In the 2021 session, lawmakers and Newsom agreed to a $12 billion plan to create more than 44,000 new housing units and treatment beds for people experiencing homelessness. For the 2022 session, the governor is proposing $2 billion more.

Previous estimates of people experiencing homelessness were much lower. Every two years, the federal government mandates a tally of the number of people on the streets on a single night in January. Advocates and experts have long clamored that the count is not accurate

The point-in-time count was last taken in January 2020 — before COVID-19 ravaged the economy — and showed 161,548 people experienced homelessness in California. The January 2021 count was postponed due to COVID-19. The 2022 count was conducted in late February.

It's really hard to pass legislation to build more housing in California

Sen. Scott Wiener takes a photo of the vote tally as the eviction bill passes in the senate. Photo by Anne Wernikoff for CalMatters
Sen. Scott Wiener takes a photo of the vote tally as the eviction bill passes in the senate. Photo by Anne Wernikoff, CalMatters

But that doesn't stop lawmakers from trying, and trying again.

2020 was supposed to be a big year for housing legislation. Lawmakers proposed a slew of housing bills, including a measure that would have forced cities to allow more mid-rise apartment buildings, convert big-box retail property into housing, and limit the restraints of environmental law on housing projects.

None of those bills passed. Democratic squabbling and the global pandemic, among other factors, were to blame. 

Key legislators are back at it this year. The bills are mostly designed at easing zoning and environmental restrictions to allow for more dense housing, funneling more money into affordable housing production and trying to force local governments to comply with state goals. 

Here are a just a few of the bills we're watching this year:

AB 215, by Assemblymember David Chiu, would essentially give teeth to the Regional Housing Needs Allocation, a law designed to increase housing production but that has done little to mandate it. Cities would need to check in with the state halfway through their eight-year housing approval process. If they're behind on their goals, the state would force them to approve more pro-housing policies. Gov. Newsom signed the bill into law on Sept. 28.

SB 9, by Senate leader Toni Atkins of San Diego, bears some resemblance to last year's SB 50. The bill would allow homeowners to put a duplex on single-family lots or split them without requiring a hearing or approval from the local government. Affordable housing and rental properties would be exempt from the changes. The Legislature passed this bill and Newsom signed it on Sept. 16.

SB 10, by Sen. Scott Wiener, would allow cities to rezone transit centers and job hubs to allow as many as 10 units per parcel. Proximity to public transit would theoretically lead to fewer cars on the road, bringing the state closer to its goals to reduce climate change. Newsom also signed this bill on Sept. 16.

SB 478, also by Wiener, takes aim at local ordinances that limit the construction of housing based on lot size, which effectively erases any chance of building small apartment buildings on land that is already zoned for multi-family housing. Newsom signed this bill on Sept. 28.

California's most controversial homebuilding bill

Senate Bill 50, proposed last year by Sen. Scott Wiener, would have forced cities to allow more mid-rise apartment buildings around public transit and next to some single-family homes. Proponents believe this is the best and quickest way to come close to meeting the state's housing needs.

A host of political interests supported the bill — developers, landlords, environmental groups, big city mayors and even Facebook wanted to see it pass. But the bill failed to get enough votes in the Legislature to survive in 2020 before time ran out. Among the opponents were Los Angeles Democrats, spurred by low-income tenant advocacy groups.

That wasn't the first time the legislation failed.

Similar versions of the bill had been blocked twice before, with strong opposition from suburban homeowners, local governments and community groups who contended the proposal would destroy neighborhood character and gentrify lower-income communities.

"As disappointing as it was not to pass (Senate Bill 50), it left me quite optimistic about what we will be able to do in the future," Wiener told CalMatters. "The fact that a bill four or five years before (SB 50) would not have probably even gotten a hearing in a single committee, but then we were able to get it through two committees and almost off the Senate floor (means) there is actually very, very broad and deep support for a pro-housing agenda."

Many of the same ideas proposed in SB 50 were debated again this year. Combined, SB 9 and SB 10 offer a more modest version of the failed SB 50. 

While they are going to take a few years to lead to increased housing production, they are a significant start, said David Garcia, policy director for the Terner Center for Housing Innovation at UC Berkeley. "It signals that lawmakers are willing to take on the traditional sacred cows of housing and single-family zoning. From a political standpoint, that's a pretty significant shift in the housing landscape," he said.

The housing crisis has major repercussions for the economy

Big business is also feeling the pinch of California's housing crisis.

The McKinsey Global Institute found that housing shortages cost the economy between $143 billion and $233 billion annually, not taking into account second-order costs to health, education and the environment. Much of that is due to households spending too much of their incomes on the rent or mortgage and not enough on consumer goods.

Even the attractive salaries and lavish perks of Silicon Valley struggle to overcome the local housing market, as young tech talent flees to the relatively inexpensive climes of Austin or Portland. Nearly 60 percent of Los Angeles companies in a recent University of Southern California survey said the region's high cost of living was affecting employee retention.

August
23

FDA Releases Final Rule on Agricultural Water

  • May 06, 2024

On May 2, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration published the Final Rule for Standards for the Growing, Harvesting, Packing, and Holding of Produce for Human Consumption Relating to Agricultural Water.

The Western Growers Science Team examined the rule and notes the following changes that replace the pre-harvest agricultural water requirements in the 2015 produce safety rule. (A summary of those changes can be found in Table 3 of the Rule).

  • The following pre-harvest assessments for hazar...

Click Here to Read More...

August
23

Compare current mortgage rates for today

Aug. 23, 2024

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Mortgage rate news this week - Aug. 23, 2024

Mortgage rates up slightly this week to 6.62%

Mortgage rates remained under 7% this week, averaging 6.62% for a 30-year loan, according to Bankrate's lender survey.

Thirty-year mortgage rates haven't been this low since May 2023. Rates began falling in July on promising inflation news, then dropped to the 6s in August after a blip of market volatility. Some homeowners refinanced in the flurry, but many more remain locked into mortgages obtained during the pandemic, when rates were at 3%. For those borrowers, rates would need to come down significantly for refinancing to save money.

Prospective homebuyers are also waiting it out. In a June Bankrate survey, 47% of homeowners said they'd need rates under 5% to feel comfortable buying a home this year.

Despite lower mortgage rates, home sales activity came in 2.5% lower in July compared to last year. Still, with the Federal Reserve widely expected to issue multiple rate cuts starting in September, there's room for rates to fall further and sales to pick back up.

Experts: Rates to stay on downtrend


Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

"The yield on 10-year Treasurys has had a bumpy ride the last few weeks. However, the mortgage rate for long-term mortgages has continued to fall steadily as the margin between the yield on 10-year Treasurys and long-term mortgage rates continues to shrink slowly. This is a good trend for the long term and for right now, as well. Next week, expect to see long-term mortgage rates decline." - Aug. 20

Current mortgage and refinance interest rates

Product Interest Rate APR
30-Year Fixed Rate 6.49% 6.54%
20-Year Fixed Rate 6.24% 6.30%
15-Year Fixed Rate 5.84% 5.92%
10-Year Fixed Rate 5.84% 5.92%
5-1 ARM 6.09% 7.28%
10-1 ARM 6.68% 7.07%
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA 6.29% 6.34%
30-Year Fixed Rate VA 6.31% 6.36%
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo 6.66% 6.71%

Rates as of Friday, August 23, 2024 at 6:30 AM

 

Learn more: Interest rate vs. APR

  • Why trust Bankrate's mortgage rates

How to get the best mortgage rate

Getting the best possible rate on your mortgage can mean a difference of hundreds of extra dollars in or out of your budget each month — not to mention thousands saved in interest over the life of the loan. You won't know what rates you qualify for, though, unless you comparison-shop. And you also need to narrow down the best type of mortgage for your situation. Here's how to do it:

  1. Determine what type of mortgage is right for you. Consider your credit score and down payment, how long you plan to stay in the home, how much you can afford in monthly payments and whether you have the risk tolerance for a variable-rate loan versus a fixed-rate loan.
  2. Compare mortgage rates. There's only one way to be sure you're getting the best available rate, and that's to shop at least three lenders, including large banks, credit unions and online lenders. Bankrate's mortgage lender reviews can get you started. Bankrate offers a mortgage rates comparison tool to help you find the right rate from a variety of lenders. Keep in mind: Mortgage rates change daily, even hourly, based on market conditions, and vary by loan type and term.
  3. Choose the best mortgage offer for you. Bankrate's mortgage calculator can help you estimate your monthly mortgage payment, which can be useful as you consider your budget. Look at the APR, not just the interest rate. The APR is the total cost of the loan, including the interest rate and other fees. These fees are part of your closing costs.

Why compare mortgage rates?

It's been proven: Shopping with multiple lenders can save you up to $1,200 a year. Bankrate's mortgage amortization calculator shows how even a 0.1 percent difference on your rate can translate to thousands of dollars you could pay over the life of the loan.

Factors that determine your mortgage rate

Your mortgage rate depends on a number of factors, including your individual credit profile and what's happening in the broader economy. These variables include:

  • Your credit and finances: The better your credit score, the better interest rate you'll get. The same goes for the size of your down payment and the amount of debt you carry: Generally, if you have more money to put down, you'll get a lower rate. If you have additional debt, your rate might be higher.
  • Loan amount: The size of your loan can impact your rate.
  • Loan structure: Your rate varies whether you're obtaining a fixed-rate or adjustable-rate loan. It also depends on the length of the loan (for example, 30 years or 15 years).
  • Location of the property: Rates vary depending on where you're buying.
  • Whether you're a first-time homebuyer: Many first-time homebuyer loan programs include a lower-rate mortgage.
  • Economic factors: Broadly, mortgage rates are impacted by forces like the Federal Reserve, inflation and investor appetite.
  • The lender you work with: Lenders set rates based on many factors, including their own supply and demand.
  • Mortgage points. Mortgage points, also referred to as discount points, help homebuyers reduce their interest rate and monthly mortgage payments. Each point typically lowers an interest rate by 0.25 percentage points. For example, one point would lower a mortgage rate of 6 percent to 5.75 percent. The cost of a point is typically 1 percent of the total amount borrowed. For more details, see Bankrate's guide to mortgage points.
  • The size of your down payment. If you put down less than 20 percent of the purchase amount, you may pay a higher rate.

How to refinance your current mortgage

When interest rates fall, you might choose to refinance your mortgage to a new loan at a lower rate. The process isn't much different from your original mortgage application, and you'll likely pay less in closing costs this time around compared to when you first bought a home.

While most borrowers today have mortgages with already-low rates, there are still some instances when refinancing might make sense. If you're considering refinancing, think about your goals. Do you want to save money? Take cash out? Pay off your mortgage faster? Get a fixed rate? Borrowers refinance for these and many other reasons. Compare refinance rates and do the math with Bankrate's refinance calculator.

Next steps to getting a mortgage

Before you start applying for a mortgage, here are some mortgage resources to prepare you for the process:

Mortgage FAQ

  • What is a mortgage and how does it work?
  • Should you lock in your mortgage rate?
  • How much are closing costs on a mortgage?
  • Who are the best mortgage lenders?

Meet our Bankrate experts

Written by: Jeff Ostrowski, Principal Reporter, Mortgages

I cover mortgages and the housing market. Before joining Bankrate in 2020, I spent more than 20 years writing about real estate and the economy for the Palm Beach Post and the South Florida Business Journal. I've had a front-row seat for two housing booms and a housing bust. I've twice won gold awards from the National Association of Real Estate Editors, and since 2017 I've served on the nonprofit's board of directors.

Read more from Jeff Ostrowski

Edited by: Suzanne De Vita, Senior Editor, Home Lending

I've covered the housing market, mortgages and real estate for the past 12 years. At Bankrate, my areas of focus include first-time homebuyers and mortgage rate trends, and I'm especially interested in the housing needs of baby boomers. In the past, I've reported on market indicators like home sales and supply, as well as the real estate brokerage business. My work has been recognized by the National Association of Real Estate Editors.

Read more from Suzanne De Vita

Reviewed by: Greg McBride, CFA, Chief Financial Analyst, Bankrate

Greg McBride is a CFA charterholder with more than a quarter-century of experience in personal finance, including consumer lending prior to coming to Bankrate. Through Bankrate.com's Money Makeover series, he helped consumers plan for retirement, manage debt and develop appropriate investment allocations. He is an accomplished public speaker, has served as a Wall Street Journal Expert Panelist and served on boards in the credit counseling industry for more than a decade and the funding board of the Rose Foundation's Consumer Financial Education Fund.

Article belongs to bankrate.com

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