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October
4

CALIFORNIA AVOCADOS

Avocados are grown on approximately 60,000 acres, primarily in southern and central California, typically in regions tempered by coastal climates. Most of the avocado acreage lies between San Luis Obispo and San Diego.  Avocados are produced in 15 counties but five coastal counties account for essentially all of the state's production. Based on 2002 USDA census data, San Diego, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties are the top producing counties, accounting for approximately 80% of the total avocado acreage in California (USDA, 2002).  San Diego County is the leading county, producing nearly 47% of California market value for avocados (USDA, 1999a), accounting for 39% of the state's avocado producing acreage (USDA, 2002). Other counties with significant production are Riverside (14%) and Orange (3%) counties.  California produces 95% of the avocados grown in the United States and 10% of the world's production.  From 1990 to 1998, California's average production was 323 million pounds, with typical fluctuations of 5% (USDA, 1999a)  This crop requires relatively few chemicals to control insect pests. Beneficial insects are used as part of an Integrated Pest Management (IPM) approach in which harsh chemicals are avoided to maintain this balance.

Several varieties of avocados are harvested in California including, Haas, Lamb Haas, Bacon, Zutano, Fuerte, Pinkerton and Gwen.  The Haas variety is the predominant tree accounting for roughly 90% of the total production.  Due to California's unique coastal micro-climate, avocados are harvested year round with a typical tree yielding 60 lbs of fruit per year.  The official avocado crop year runs from November 1 through October 31. Avocado fruit can be held successfully after harvest in cold storage for approximately 2 to 4 weeks.  The size and oil levels of the harvested fruit, in part, determine the grade of the harvest.

 

Avocados are typically grown in well-drained, fine or course sandy loam soils. Micro sprinkler and drip irrigation systems typically are used to deliver water to the grove floor. Avocado roots are relatively shallow, so deep watering is unnecessary.  There are over two-dozen avocado bearing soils in San Diego, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties alone (USDA, 2006).  Approximately 63% of avocado bearing soils in these counties are in drainage groups C and D.  Of these, the Cieneba series is the most common avocado bearing soil with moderate expected yields under irrigation (Table 5).  The Cieneba series accounts for approximately 37% of avocado bearing soil acreage (USDA, 2006).  Cieneba soils are thermic, shallow Typic Xerorthents located on uplands with slopes of 9 to 85 percent (USDA, 1999b).  Location and metfile selections are often the most important developments affecting scenario vulnerability and protectiveness.  Because this scenario is intended to represent avocado production along the southern coastal area of California, the metfile closest to the center of the primary avocado producing county (San Diego) was chosen.  The Cieneba soil series was selected for this scenario because it is both representative of avocado bearing soils (Oster, 2006), is predominant in San Diego County as well as central and southern California, represents the majority (44%) of avocado soils in drainage, the fourth most erosive soil type, and is among the steeper sloped avocado bearing soils (Table 5).

 

Cieneba is a Hydrologic Group C soil, which represents the majority (44%) of these soils in drainage.  Cieneba soils have a USLE K factor of ranging from 0.24-0.32; approximately 82% of avocado bearing soils have a USLE K factor between 0.24 and 0.32 (Table 5). Approximately 10% of avocado bearing soils have a pH lower than Cieneba soils (5.8 - 6.5), although soil pH is not currently a PRZM input parameter and is not expected to often affect chemical fate in the acidic range.  Based on the official soil series description, Ceineba soils have an A horizon from 0 to 10 inches (0-25 cm) deep and a C horizon from 10 to over 30 inches (25-76 cm) deep, however the C horizon is primarily weathered granitic material with remnant rock structure.  (USDA, 2006).  Cieneba coarse sandy loam was used to parameterize this scenario (USDA 2005). 

 

The Met station chosen was the San Diego station (23188.dvf) located at 32º 44' N, 117º 10' W and at an elevation of approximately 4 meters above sea level.  This station receives an average of approximately 25.2 cm of rainfall annually.  The station is the closest available station to this scenario with data necessary for PRZM.

 

 

 

Table 1.  PRZM 3.12 Climate and Time Parameters for San Diego, California – Avocado.

Parameter

Value

Source/Comments

Starting Date

Jan. 1, 1961

Meteorological File from San Diego  County, (W 23188)

Ending Date

Dec. 31, 1990

Meteorological File from San Diego  County, (W 23188)

Pan Evaporation Factor (PFAC)

0.70

PRZM Manual Figure 5.1.  Value represents San Diego region.

Snowmelt Factor (SFAC)

0

In areas where climatology prevents snow fall, SFAC should be set to 0.0 - PRZM Manual (EPA 1998) 

Minimum Depth of

Evaporation  (ANETD)

32.5 cm

PRZM Manual (EPA 1998)  Average of 30-35 cm

 

Table 2.  PRZM 3.12 Erosion and Landscape Parameters for San Diego, California – Avocado.

Parameter

Value

Source/Comments

Method to Calculate Erosion (ERFLAG)

4 (MUSS)

PRZM Manual (EPA, 1998)

USLE K Factor (USLEK)

0.24

USDA NRCS Soil Data Mart (http://soildatamart.nrcs.usda.gov/)

 

USLE LS Factor (USLELS)

3.63

PRZM Manual (EPA, 1998)

LS value for 12% slope and 400' slope length; LS equation (Haan and Barfield, 1978)

USLE P Factor (USLEP)

1.0

Set to 1 for orchards (EPA, 2004)

Field Area (AFIELD)

172 ha

Area of Shipman Reservoir watershed  (EPA, 1999)

NRCS Hyetograph (IREG)

1

PRZM Manual Figure 5.12 (EPA, 1998)

Type I, IREG=1

Slope (SLP)

12 %

Slopes for Cieneba coarse sandy loam exceed 12%.  Set to 12% as per PRZM scenario guidance (EPA, 2004).  Some data indicate slopes as high as 16% (Oster and Arpaia 2006)

Hydraulic Length (HL)

600 m

Shipman Reservoir (EPA, 1999)

Irrigation Flag (IRFLAG)

1

Year round irrigation.  EPA, 2005

Irrigation Type (IRTYP)

4   (drip)

Irrigation Guidance for developing PRZM Scenarios, Table 3; (EPA 2005).

Leaching Factor (FLEACH)

0.0

Set to 0 as per Irrigation Guidance for developing PRZM Scenarios, Table 3; (June 15, 2005). 

Fraction of Water Capacity when Irrigation is Applied (PCDEPL)

0.5

Set to default as per Irrigation Guidance for developing PRZM Scenarios, Table 3; (EPA 2005).

Maximum Rate at which Irrigation is Applied (RATEAP)

0.056 cm hr-1

Irrigation Guidance for developing PRZM Scenarios, Table 1; (June 15, 2005).  For CN = 79 and f = 0

 

 

 

Table 3.   PRZM 3.12 Crop Parameters for San Diego, California – Avocado.

Parameter

Value

Source/Comments

Initial Crop (INICRP)

1

Set to one for all crops (EPA, 2004).

Initial Surface Condition

(ISCOND)

3

Orchard residues are left behind between rows, under trees are cleared to reduce disease. Consistent with the FL avocado scenario and other orchard type scenarios.

Number of Different Crops (NDC)

1

Set to number of crops in simulation.

Number of Cropping Periods (NCPDS)

30

Set to weather data in meteorological file: San Diego, CA (W23188).

Maximum rainfall interception storage of crop (CINTCP)

0.25

Recommended value for orchards (EPA, 2004).

Maximum Active Root Depth (AMXDR)

25 cm

Set to horizon depth.  Most of the roots for Haas avocados grown in  an orchard with Cieneba soil type were located above 15 cm (Oster and Arpaia 2006)

Maximum Canopy Coverage (COVMAX)

70

Taken from FL avocados scenario

Soil Surface Condition After Harvest (ICNAH)

3

Plant residues are left behind. Consistent with the FL avocado scenario and other orchard type scenarios.

Date of Crop Emergence

(EMD, EMM, IYREM)

01/01

Values are set to keep E/T and canopy coverage terms working correctly for this evergreen scenario.

Date of Crop Maturity

(MAD, MAM, IYRMAT)

02/01

Values are set to keep E/T and canopy coverage terms working correctly for this evergreen scenario.

Date of Crop Harvest (HAD, HAM, IYRHAR)

31/12

Values are set to keep E/T and canopy coverage terms working correctly for this evergreen scenario.

Maximum Dry Weight (WFMAX)

0.0

Not used in scenario

Maximum CropHeight (HTMAX)

914

Avocado trees typically grow to 20-40 feet California Avocado Commission

SCS Curve Number (CN)

84, 79, 82

Gleams Manual Table H-4; meadows; hydrological group C (USDA, 1990)

Manning's N Value (MNGN)

0.023

RUSLE Project;  C25CFCFN  for California citrus with full cover (USDA, 2000). 

USLE C Factor (USLEC)

0.040 - 0.062

RUSLE Project; C25CFCFN for California citrus with full cover (USDA, 2000). 

 

 

 

Table 4.  PRZM 3.12 Cieneba Soil Parameters for San Diego, California – Avocado.

Parameter

Value

Source/Comments

Total Soil Depth (CORED)

25 cm

NRCS Soil Data Mart (SDM) (http://soildatamart.nrcs.usda.gov)

Number of Horizons (NHORIZ)

2

NRCS Soil Data Mart (SDM) (http://soildatamart.nrcs.usda.gov).  The third horizon from SDM was excluded because it is bedrock.

Horizon Thickness (THKNS)

10 cm (HORIZN = 1)

15 cm (HORIZN = 2)

 

NRCS Soil Data Mart (SDM) (http://soildatamart.nrcs.usda.gov).

Bulk Density (BD)

1.55 g/cm3 (HORIZN = 1)

1.55 g/cm3 (HORIZN = 2)

 

NRCS Soil Data Mart (SDM) (http://soildatamart.nrcs.usda.gov). Midpoint of the reported range. PRZM Scenario Guidance (EPA, 2004).

Initial Water Content (THETO)

0.168 cm3/cm3 (HORIZN =1)

0.168 cm3/cm3 (HORIZN =2)

 

NRCS Soil Data Mart (SDM); values are mean 1/3-bar water contents of Cieneba coarse sandy loam soils. 

Compartment Thickness (DPN)

0.1 cm (HORIZN = 1)

5 cm (HORIZN = 2)

 

NRCS Soil Data Mart (SDM) (http://soildatamart.nrcs.usda.gov). PRZM Scenario Guidance (EPA, 2004).

Field Capacity (THEFC)

0.168 cm3/cm3 (HORIZN =1)

0.168 cm3/cm3 (HORIZN =2)

NRCS Soil Data Mart (SDM); values are mean 1/3-bar water contents of Cieneba coarse sandy loam soils. 

Wilting Point (THEWP)

0.08 cm3/cm3 (HORIZN =1)

0.08 cm3/cm3 (HORIZN =2)

NRCS Soil Data Mart (SDM); values are mean 15-bar water contents of Cieneba coarse sandy loam soils. 

Organic Carbon Content (OC)

0.44% (HORIZN = 1)

0.44% (HORIZN = 2)

 

 

NRCS SDM; values for horizons 1 to 3 = mean %OM / 1.724.  PRZM Scenario Guidance (EPA, 2004). 

 

 

Figure 1.  2002 harvested acres for avocados based on USDA Census of Agriculture for California and conterminous United States (inset)  Estimates do not include data for individual farms which NASS has excluded to protect the identify of individual farms. 

Table 5.  Avocado Bearing Soils of San Diego, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties (California) Ranked by Area.

Soil

Total Acreage

% Area

Drainage

Avocados-IrrYield (boxes)

Erodibility

Slopes (%)

pH

OM (%)

% Sand

% Silt

% Clay

Avocados-NIrrYield (boxes)

CIENEBA

332,986

37.12%

C

250-400

0.24-0.32

9-75

5.8-6.5

0.75

67.9-68.5

19-19.6

12.5

-

VISTA

74,863

8.35%

B

500-615

0.28-0.32

15-65

6.7

0.75

65.4-66.8

22.2-23.6

11

-

GAVIOTA

62,334

6.95%

D

250

0.28-0.55

5-75

6.3-7.6

0.75

66.1-66.8

19.2-19.9

14

-

TERRACE ESCARPMENTS

57,147

6.37%

--

375

-

9-75

-

0

-

-

-

-

MAYMEN

49,991

5.57%

D

200

0.28

15-75

5.3-5.8

0.75-1.5

43-68.8

16.2-39.5

15-17.5

-

ARNOLD

38,078

4.25%

A

325-825

0.17-0.28

5-75

5.6-6.7

0.75

78.5-96

1.5-16.5

2.5-5

-

MOCHO

34,528

3.85%

B

1000

0.17-0.28

0-9

8.2

3

18.1-68.8

16.2-50.9

15-31

-

FRIANT

34,451

3.84%

D

150

0.2

30-70

6.3

1.5

66.1

19.9

14

-

LINNE

26,767

2.98%

C

250

0.2-0.32

30-75

8.2

2-3.5

18.1-35.4

33.6-50.9

31

-

SAN BENITO

25,075

2.80%

B

300

0.17-0.2

9-50

7.2-7.6

2.5

35.4

33.6

31

-

CORRALITOS

21,924

2.44%

A

300-330

0.15-0.28

0-15

5.8-6.7

0.75

80.5-96

1.5-17

2.5

-

LOS OSOS

21,084

2.35%

C

250

0.17-0.28

30-50

6.1-6.1

2.5-3

35.4

33.6

31

-

BOTELLA

18,581

2.07%

B

400

0.2-0.28

0-15

6.5

3-4

34.2-41.6

33.6-37.4

21-31

-

NACIMIENTO

11,550

1.29%

C

325-1000

0.28-0.32

9-50

8.2

2-3

18.1

50.9

31

-

SAN ANDREAS

10,936

1.22%

B

325-350

0.24-0.28

9-45

5.8-6.5

2.5

70.5

16.5

13

-

MARINA

10,843

1.21%

B

450-470

0.24

0-9

5.8

0.75

96

1.5

2.5

-

PICO

9,622

1.07%

B

400

0.2

0-9

8.2

2.5

65.1

18.9

16

-

BALLARD

9,036

1.01%

B

800-900

0.28

0-15

5.6-6.1

2

68.8

16.2

15

-

ANACAPA

8,355

0.93%

B

900

0.28

0-9

7.2

2

67.9

19.6

12.5

-

AYAR

6,803

0.76%

D

200

0.2

30-75

7.7-8.2

2

26.1

28.9

45

-

TODOS

6,670

0.74%

D

250-900

0.24

9-50

6.3

3

35.4

33.6

31

-

GOLETA

5,652

0.63%

B

1000

0.24-0.28

0-9

7.2-7.5

3

45.4-70.5

16.5-41.6

13

-

ROUGH BROKEN LAND

4,520

0.50%

--

375

-

15-50

-

0

-

-

-

-

MILPITAS

3,626

0.40%

D

300

0.37

15-50

6.1-6.7

1.5

68.8

16.2

15

-

CAMARILLO

2,658

0.30%

C

250

0.24-0.43

0-2

8.2

2.5

18.1-66.8

19.2-50.9

14-31

-

DIABLO

2,458

0.27%

D

200

0.2-0.24

30-50

7.3-7.5

2.5

22.1-23.3

27.9-29.2

47.5-50

-

BALLARD VARIANT

1,254

0.14%

B

325

0.28

2-9

6.1

1.5

68.8

16.2

15

-

CORTINA

1,177

0.13%

B

325

0.28

9-15

6.7

0.75

67.2

15.3

17.5

-

ORTHENTS

1,039

0.12%

B

375

-

50-75

-

-

-

-

-

-

CAMARILLO VARIANT

903

0.10%

C

500

0.32

0-2

8.2

2.5

68.1

14.4

17.5

-

BOTELLA VARIANT

808

0.09%

B

1000

0.15-0.17

2-15

5.8

2.5

18.1-35.4

33.6-50.9

31

-

ESCARPMENT

629

0.07%

--

375

-

75-99

-

-

-

-

-

-

POSITAS

616

0.07%

D

300

0.37

30-50

5.8

1.5

67.5

21

11.5

-

 

Works Cited

 

EPA.  1998.  Carsel, R.F., J.C. Imhoff, P.R. Hummel, J.M. Cheplick, and A.S. Donigian, Jr.  PRZM-3, A Model for Predicting Pesticide and Nitrogen Fate in the Crop Root and Unsaturated Soil Zones: Users Manual for Release 3.0.  National Exposure Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Athens, GA.

EPA.  1999.  Jones, R.D., J. Breithaupt, J. Carleton, L. Libelo, J. Lin, R. Matzner, and R. Parker.  Guidance for Use of the Index Reservoir in Drinking Water Exposure Assessments. Environmental Fate and Effects Division, Office of Pesticide Programs, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.

EPA.  2004.  Abel, S.A.  Procedure for Conducting Quality Assurance and Quality Control of Existing and New PRZM Field and Orchard Crop Standard Scenarios.  Environmental Fate and Effects Division, Office of Pesticide Programs, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.

EPA. 2005. Irrigation Guidance for developing PRZM Scenarios. June 15, 2005.

Oster JD, Arpaia ML.  2006. Effects of salinity and applied water on yields of 'Hass' avocado on Mexican seedling rootstock. Seminario: Manejo del riego y suelo en el cultivo del palto. 27-28 de Septiembre de 2006. 14 pages.

USDA.  1990.  Davis, F.M., R.A. Leonard, W.G. Knisel.  GLEAMS User Manual, Version 1.8.55.  U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service (ARS), Southeast Watershed Research Laboratory, Tifton, GA.  SEWRL-030190FMD.

USDA.  1999a.  Crop Profile for Avocados in California.  U.S. Department of Agriculture, Pest Management Centers.  July 1999.  Online at: http://www.ipmcenters.org/cropprofiles/caavocados.html

USDA.  1999b.  Official Series Description – CIENEBA Series.  U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS).  May 1999.  Online at: http://ortho.ftw.nrcs.usda.gov/osd/dat/C/CIENEBA.html.

USDA.  2000.  Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) EPA Pesticide Project.  U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and Agricultural Research Service (ARS).

USDA.  2002.  2002 Census of Agriculture.  U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).  Online at: http://www.nass.usda.gov/census/census02/preliminary/2002censusdates.htm.

USDA.  2006.  Soil Survey Areas of San Diego, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties.  U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), Soil Data Mart.  March 1, 2006.  Online at: http://soildatamart.nrcs.usda.gov.

September
28

September
28

California Mortgage and Refinance Rates

On Thursday, September 28, 2023, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage APR is 7.84%. The national average 30-year fixed refinance APR is 8.00%, according to Bankrate's latest survey of the nation's largest mortgage lenders.

At Bankrate we strive to help you make smarter financial decisions. While we adhere to strict editorial integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners. Here's an explanation for how we make money.

Showing results for: Single-family home, 30 year fixed and 5 year ARM mortgages with all points options.

Lender Rate
APR
Mo. payment
as of September 28, 2023
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5.0

6.624%

6.854%

$2,305

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4.9

6.605%

6.846%

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6.625%

7.561%

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6.875%

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6.875%

7.096%

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Visit Homefinity site

NMLS #2289 | State Lic: 41DBO-78367

4.9

7.375%

7.373%

$2,486

Market Survey Rates

The rates below are intended for educational purposes. The lenders listed are not active participants in Bankrate's mortgage marketplace.

San Diego County Credit Union

7.125%

7.137%

$2,425

Current mortgage interest rates in California

As of Thursday, September 28, 2023, current interest rates in California are 7.90% for a 30-year fixed mortgage and 6.83% for a 15-year fixed mortgage. After hitting record lows in 2021, mortgage rates rose sharply in 2022. So far, in 2023, they've plateaued somewhat in the 6 percent range. Still, the seemingly here-to-stay higher rate environment means housing affordability, already a challenge in California's high-priced real estate market, presents an even higher hurdle.

One silver lining: Rates on jumbo mortgages have been below rates for conforming mortgages, so Californians who need to borrow more than $1 million can do so at favorable rates.

While interest rates no longer are at historic lows, you might be able to do a cash-out refinance to pay for renovations. You can use Bankrate's mortgage refinance calculator to run the numbers.

 

Shopping around for quotes from multiple lenders is one of Bankrate's most crucial pieces of advice for every mortgage applicant. When you compare, it's important to look at not just the interest rate you're being quoted, but also all the other terms of the loan. Be sure to compare APRs, which include many additional costs of the mortgage not shown in the interest rate. Keep in mind that some institutions may have lower closing costs than others, or your current bank may extend you a special "existing clients" offer. There's always some variability between lenders on both rates and terms, so make sure you understand the full picture of each offer, and think about what will suit your situation best.

 

  • Why trust Bankrate's mortgage rates?

How to find the best mortgage rate in California for you

Comparison-shopping for a mortgage is crucial. By comparing at least three offers, borrowers can save thousands of dollars over the life of a loan. Bankrate can help you find the best mortgage deal in today's volatile rate environment. Here are the basic steps to making the best decision:

  • Determine which type of mortgage is right for you. Consider your credit score and down payment, how long you plan to stay in the home, how much you can afford in monthly payments and whether you have the risk tolerance for a variable-rate loan versus a fixed-rate loan. If you're a veteran or servicemember, VA loans offer compelling benefits. If you're a first-time buyer, an FHA loan might make the most sense.
  • Figure out whether you'll be above or below the jumbo loan limit. In California's largest counties, conventional loan limits go up to $1,089,300. If you borrow more than that, you need a jumbo loan. See California loan limits by county.
  • Compare mortgage rates. Once you decide which mortgage type fits your needs, you can begin comparing current options. There's only one way to be sure you're getting the best available rate, and that's to look at least three lenders, including large banks, credit unions and online lenders, or by using a mortgage broker. Bankrate offers a mortgage rates comparison tool to help you find the right rate from a variety of lenders.
  • Choose the loan that best fits your needs. Bankrate's mortgage calculator can help you estimate your monthly mortgage payment, which can be useful as you consider your budget. Look at the APR, not just the interest rate. The APR is the total cost of the loan, including the interest rate and other fees, so it's usually a larger figure, but often a more accurate one — in terms of what you'll effectively be paying.

Mortgage options in California

The Golden State is aptly named: Home to three of the 10 largest cities in the country, but also blessed with beautiful countryside and coastal areas. Luckily, when it comes to mortgages in California, you have plenty of options. Here are some common loan types:

  • California conventional mortgages: Rates and requirements will vary depending on the area you want to live in and your financial situation. You can compare mortgage rates to find the option that's right for you.
  • CalHFA: The California Housing Finance Agency (CalHFA) offers state residents access to mortgages, as well as smaller loans designed to help with a down payment or closing costs. To get started, borrowers can contact a CalHFA-approved lender or preferred loan officer.
  • California FHA loans: Home loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) are offered throughout the U.S. While the FHA doesn't offer loans directly, you can find one through an FHA-approved lender in California. They are offered to first-time homebuyers, defined as those that have not purchased a home in the past two years, as well as repeat buyers. FHA loans are generally designed for low- to moderate-income borrowers with lower credit scores.
  • California VA loans: Backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs, VA loans are offered to eligible veterans and active-duty service members. While the VA doesn't offer loans directly, you can find one through a VA-approved lender in California. They require no down payment and typically have lower interest rates than conventional mortgages.

First-time homebuyer programs in California

Buying a house in California is a pricey proposition, but first-time homebuyers in California have access to assistance in the form of grants and programs. Learn more about California first-time homebuyer programs.

  • CalHFA down payment assistance programs: Low- to moderate-income borrowers can apply for small down payment and closing costs assistance loans through CalHFA. One option is the MyHome Assistance program, which allows you to borrow a deferred loan worth up to 3.5 percent of the purchase price or appraised value to help you cover closing costs and the down payment.
  • CalHFA and CalPLUS Conventional Loan Programs: With the CalHFA Conventional Loan Program, you can get a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage on the conventional market. This means you'll have access to competitively low interest rates, but you'll also need to meet qualification requirements. The CalPLUS Conventional Loan Program is similar, but with a slightly higher interest rate that can be combined with the CalHFA Zero Interest Program to help pay closing costs.

Additional California mortgage resources

article belongs to bankrate.com

September
28

C.A.R. releases its 2024 California Housing Market Forecast

California housing market will rebound in 2024 as mortgage rates ebb.

  • Existing, single-family home sales are forecast to total 327,100 units in 2024, an increase of 22.9 percent from 2023's projected pace of 266,200.

  • California's median home price is forecast to climb 6.2 percent to $860,300 in 2024, following a projected 1.5 percent decrease to $810,000 in 2023 from 2022's $822,300.

  • Housing affordability* is expected to remain flat at 17 percent next year from a projected 17 percent in 2023.

LOS ANGELES (Sept. 20) – Slower economic growth and cooling inflation will bring down mortgage interest rates in 2024 and create a more favorable market environment to spur California home sales next year, according to a housing and economic forecast released today by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.)

The baseline scenario of C.A.R.'s "2024 California Housing Market Forecast" sees an increase in existing single-family home sales of 22.9 percent next year to reach 327,100 units, up from the projected 2023 sales figure of 266,200. The 2023 figure is 22.2 percent lower compared with the pace of 342,000 homes sold in 2022.

The California median home price is forecast to rise 6.2 percent to $860,300 in 2024, following a projected 1.5 percent dip to $810,000 in 2023 from $822,300 in 2022. A persistent housing shortage and a competitive housing market will continue to put upward pressure on home prices next year.

"2024 will be a better year for the California housing market for both buyers and sellers as mortgage interest rates are expected to decline next year," said C.A.R. President Jennifer Branchini, a Bay Area REALTOR®. "A more favorable market environment with lower borrowing costs, coupled with an increase in available homes for sale, will motivate buyers and sellers to reenter the market next year. First-time buyers who were squeezed out by the highly competitive market in the last couple of years will try to attain their American dream next year. Repeat buyers who have overcome the "lock-in effect" will also return to the market as mortgage rates begin to trend down."

C.A.R.'s 2024 forecast predicts the U.S. gross domestic product to edge up 0.7 percent in 2024, after a projected uptick of 1.7 percent in 2023. With California's 2024 nonfarm job growth rate at 0.5 percent, up from a projected increase of 1.4 percent in 2023, the state's unemployment rate will increase to 5.0 percent in 2024 from 2023's projected rate of 4.6 percent.

Inflation will continue its gradual decline over the next 18 months, with the CPI registering 2.6% in 2024, down from 3.9% in 2023. As such, the average 30-year, fixed mortgage interest rate will decline from 6.7 percent in 2023 but remain elevated at 6.0 percent in 2024. While next year's projected average for the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate will still be higher than the levels observed in the few years prior to the pandemic, it will be lower than the long-run average of nearly 8% in the past 50 years.

Housing supply in 2024 will remain below the norm despite a projected increase in active listings of between 10 percent to 20 percent, as market conditions and the lending environment continue to improve.

"With the economy expected to soften in 2024, the Federal Reserve Bank will begin loosening its monetary policy next year. Mortgage rates will trend down throughout 2024, and the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage could reach the mid-5% range by the end of next year," said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. "Buyers will have more financial flexibility to purchase homes at higher prices, which could generate increased housing demand and result in more upward pressure on home prices.

2024 CALIFORNIA HOUSING FORECAST

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023p

2024f

SFH Resales (000s)

424.9

402.6

398

411.9

444.5

342

266.2

327.1

% Change

1.7%

-5.2%

-1.2%

3.5%

7.9%

-23.1%

-22.2%

22.9%

Median Price ($000s)

$537.9

$569.5

$592.4

$659.4

$786.8

$822.3

$810.0

$860.3

% Change

7.1%

5.9%

4.0%

11.3%

19.3%

4.5%

-1.5%

6.2%

Housing Affordability Index*

29%

28%

31%

32%

26%

19%

17%

17%

30-Yr FRM

4.0%

4.5%

3.9%

3.1%

3.0%

5.3%

6.7%

6.0%

p = projected
f = forecast

* = % of households who can afford median-priced home


Leading the way ...® in real estate news and information for more than 110 years, the 
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States, with more than 200,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

Article belongs to CAR.org

September
18

 

How to Handle Your Home Before Moving Into Assisted Living

 

If you are considering making the move to assisted living, there are many details that must be ironed out before you do so. You need to decide what will be done with your home, how you will finance your stay, and what kind of facility is the right choice. The following considerations from Sunshine Properties will help you prepare for the transition.

 

1. Choose How Your Home Is Handled

 

One of the biggest decisions you'll need to make before your move is how your current home should be handled. There are several options to choose from. You can rent it out as a source of income, pass it on to a family member, or list it for sale. Renting can offer financial stabilit...

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