For release:
September 22, 2025
California home sales rebound in August as lower rates lift demand, C.A.R. says
SACRAMENTO (Sept. 22) – A modest improvement in mortgage rates and stabilizing home prices boosted California home sales in August, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.
Infographic: https://www.car.org/Global/Infographics/2025-08-Sales-and-Price
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 264,240 in August, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2025 if sales maintained the August pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
August home sales activity edged up 0.9 percent from the 261,820 homes sold in July and slipped 0.2 percent from a year ago, when 264,640 homes were sold on an annualized basis. August's sales level remained slightly below last year's revised level and marked the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year sales declines. It was also the 35th straight month in which the seasonally adjusted sales rate remained below the 300,000 benchmark.
Statewide pending sales in August rose 8.3 percent from July as mortgage rates fell to a 10-month low. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales edged higher by 0.2 percent for the first time in nine months. Rates have continued to ease in recent weeks, reaching their lowest level in a year amid mounting signs of economic weakness.
"Despite a softer-than-expected home buying season this year, a bounce back in pending sales last month is an encouraging sign that sales could improve the rest of the year," said C.A.R. President Heather Ozur, a Palm Springs REALTOR®. "Many prospective homebuyers have been holding out in hopes of lower mortgage rates, and the declining trend in rates observed in the last few weeks could be the nudge that draw them back to the market."
The statewide median home price rose to $899,140 in August, rebounding after three straight months of year-over-year declines. The price increased 1.7 percent from July — recovering much of the previous month's drop — and was 1.2 percent higher than the same time last year. This monthly gain also surpassed the long-term July-to-August average of 1.2 percent. With prices showing stability in August and mortgage rates falling to their lowest level in a year, the housing market may see improved support in the months ahead.
"Soft sales demand led to a steady decline in California's median home price for three consecutive months through early summer," said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. "However, with a slight uptick in the median price in August and a stabilization in the number of reduced-price listings last month, the market appears to have found a short-term balance between supply and demand. "If mortgage rates maintain their current levels or decline further before year-end, positive year-over-year home price growth may continue in the next few months."
Other key points from C.A.R.'s August 2025 resale housing report include:
Note: The County MLS median price and sales data in the tables are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS® throughout the state and represent statistics of existing single-family detached homes only. County sales data is not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as changes in the cost of a standard home. The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical than average prices, which are skewed by a relatively small share of transactions at either the lower end or the upper end. Median prices can be influenced by changes in cost, as well as changes in the characteristics and the size of homes sold. The change in median prices should not be construed as actual price changes in specific homes.
*Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its original list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.
**Price per square foot is a measure commonly used by real estate agents and brokers to determine how much a square foot of space a buyer will pay for a property. It is calculated as the sale price of the home divided by the number of finished square feet. C.A.R. currently tracks price-per-square foot statistics for 53 counties.
Leading the way…® in California real estate for 120 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with 185,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Sacramento.
# # #
August 2025 County Sales and Price Activity
(and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
|
August 2025 |
Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes |
Sales |
|||||||||
|
State/Region/County |
August 2025 |
July 2025 |
|
August 2024 |
|
Price MTM% Chg |
Price YTY% Chg |
Sales MTM% Chg |
Sales YTY% Chg |
||
|
Calif. Single-family home |
$899,140 |
$884,050 |
|
$888,740 |
|
1.7% |
1.2% |
0.9% |
-0.2% |
||
|
Calif. Condo/Townhome |
$649,950 |
$647,000 |
|
$665,000 |
|
0.5% |
-2.3% |
-0.3% |
-5.7% |
||
|
Los Angeles Metro Area |
$837,040 |
$845,500 |
|
$827,000 |
|
-1.0% |
1.2% |
-9.2% |
-4.7% |
||
|
Central Coast |
$1,100,000 |
$1,115,680 |
|
$1,035,000 |
|
-1.4% |
6.3% |
-1.8% |
1.6% |
||
|
Central Valley |
$495,000 |
$500,000 |
|
$500,000 |
|
-1.0% |
-1.0% |
-6.9% |
-3.5% |
||
|
Far North |
$385,000 |
$397,000 |
|
$397,250 |
|
-3.0% |
-3.1% |
-6.1% |
2.9% |
||
|
Inland Empire |
$600,130 |
$589,020 |
|
$585,260 |
|
1.9% |
2.5% |
-4.6% |
-2.8% |
||
|
San Francisco Bay Area |
$1,275,000 |
$1,300,000 |
|
$1,240,000 |
|
-1.9% |
2.8% |
-8.3% |
-4.1% |
||
|
Southern California |
$873,480 |
$875,030 |
|
$863,500 |
|
-0.2% |
1.2% |
-7.3% |
-3.7% |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
San Francisco Bay Area |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Alameda |
$1,269,000 |
$1,250,000 |
|
$1,272,500 |
|
1.5% |
-0.3% |
-10.3% |
-5.0% |
||
|
Contra Costa |
$850,000 |
$862,500 |
|
$841,950 |
|
-1.4% |
1.0% |
-4.3% |
-7.5% |
||
|
Marin |
$1,522,500 |
$1,625,000 |
|
$1,450,000 |
|
-6.3% |
5.0% |
-21.9% |
-3.3% |
||
|
Napa |
$975,000 |
$925,000 |
|
$976,500 |
|
5.4% |
-0.2% |
-15.2% |
1.5% |
||
|
San Francisco |
$1,500,000 |
$1,637,380 |
|
$1,528,500 |
|
-8.4% |
-1.9% |
-19.6% |
-1.3% |
||
|
San Mateo |
$1,988,000 |
$2,100,000 |
|
$1,900,000 |
|
-5.3% |
4.6% |
-12.8% |
-1.8% |
||
|
Santa Clara |
$1,900,000 |
$1,900,000 |
|
$1,851,830 |
|
0.0% |
2.6% |
-1.2% |
-3.0% |
||
|
Solano |
$620,000 |
$593,680 |
|
$600,000 |
|
4.4% |
3.3% |
-11.1% |
-13.4% |
||
|
Sonoma |
$832,500 |
$845,450 |
|
$809,160 |
|
-1.5% |
2.9% |
-6.0% |
5.9% |
||
|
Southern California |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Imperial |
$405,000 |
$415,000 |
|
$410,640 |
|
-2.4% |
-1.4% |
-31.3% |
12.2% |
||
|
Los Angeles |
$930,720 |
$911,360 |
|
$919,890 |
|
2.1% |
1.2% |
-16.0% |
-12.3% |
||
|
Orange |
$1,385,000 |
$1,400,000 |
|
$1,400,000 |
|
-1.1% |
-1.1% |
-4.3% |
1.4% |
||
|
Riverside |
$625,000 |
$630,000 |
|
$618,940 |
r |
-0.8% |
1.0% |
-6.2% |
-7.0% |
||
|
San Bernardino |
$503,030 |
$486,290 |
|
$499,000 |
r |
3.4% |
0.8% |
-1.1% |
3.6% |
||
|
San Diego |
$1,025,000 |
$1,040,000 |
|
$1,010,000 |
|
-1.4% |
1.5% |
1.3% |
-0.6% |
||
|
Ventura |
$937,500 |
$949,500 |
|
$965,000 |
|
-1.3% |
-2.8% |
-7.3% |
16.7% |
||
|
Central Coast |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Monterey |
$1,087,150 |
$1,022,500 |
|
$900,000 |
|
6.3% |
20.8% |
0.7% |
4.3% |
||
|
San Luis Obispo |
$935,400 |
$940,000 |
|
$942,500 |
|
-0.5% |
-0.8% |
3.4% |
5.0% |
||
|
Santa Barbara |
$1,408,650 |
$1,095,500 |
|
$1,062,450 |
|
28.6% |
32.6% |
-2.3% |
0.0% |
||
|
Santa Cruz |
$1,397,000 |
$1,395,500 |
|
$1,300,000 |
|
0.1% |
7.5% |
-11.3% |
-4.5% |
||
|
Central Valley |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Fresno |
$446,390 |
$440,000 |
|
$434,940 |
|
1.5% |
2.6% |
-7.4% |
0.4% |
||
|
Glenn |
$350,000 |
$375,000 |
|
$325,000 |
|
-6.7% |
7.7% |
11.8% |
26.7% |
||
|
Kern |
$415,000 |
$390,000 |
|
$399,500 |
|
6.4% |
3.9% |
-3.3% |
4.6% |
||
|
Kings |
$380,000 |
$365,000 |
|
$380,000 |
|
4.1% |
0.0% |
1.0% |
36.1% |
||
|
Madera |
$445,000 |
$445,000 |
|
$430,750 |
|
0.0% |
3.3% |
-11.0% |
-7.9% |
||
|
Merced |
$418,500 |
$440,000 |
|
$415,000 |
|
-4.9% |
0.8% |
3.7% |
6.3% |
||
|
Placer |
$675,000 |
$687,480 |
|
$675,000 |
|
-1.8% |
0.0% |
-12.8% |
-12.0% |
||
|
Sacramento |
$550,000 |
$559,500 |
|
$559,000 |
|
-1.7% |
-1.6% |
-8.8% |
-5.4% |
||
|
San Benito |
$742,500 |
$799,900 |
|
$812,500 |
|
-7.2% |
-8.6% |
8.6% |
11.8% |
||
|
San Joaquin |
$535,000 |
$530,000 |
|
$560,000 |
|
0.9% |
-4.5% |
-2.0% |
-13.1% |
||
|
Stanislaus |
$499,720 |
$475,000 |
|
$475,000 |
|
5.2% |
5.2% |
1.8% |
0.0% |
||
|
Tulare |
$378,700 |
$382,990 |
|
$380,000 |
|
-1.1% |
-0.3% |
-17.7% |
-4.8% |
||
|
Far North |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Butte |
$468,000 |
$456,500 |
|
$458,000 |
|
2.5% |
2.2% |
-24.6% |
-12.8% |
||
|
Lassen |
$221,000 |
$311,000 |
|
$236,000 |
|
-28.9% |
-6.4% |
22.2% |
46.7% |
||
|
Plumas |
$480,000 |
$434,500 |
|
$547,420 |
|
10.5% |
-12.3% |
63.3% |
22.5% |
||
|
Shasta |
$368,000 |
$380,000 |
|
$383,300 |
|
-3.2% |
-4.0% |
-7.0% |
6.5% |
||
|
Siskiyou |
$300,000 |
$365,000 |
|
$305,500 |
|
-17.8% |
-1.8% |
13.9% |
10.8% |
||
|
Tehama |
$335,000 |
$370,000 |
|
$380,000 |
|
-9.5% |
-11.8% |
-32.1% |
-24.0% |
||
|
Trinity |
$310,000 |
$240,500 |
|
$280,000 |
|
28.9% |
10.7% |
-12.5% |
0.0% |
||
|
Other Calif. Counties |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Amador |
$469,500 |
$415,000 |
|
$431,000 |
|
13.1% |
8.9% |
0.0% |
-8.3% |
||
|
Calaveras |
$540,000 |
$456,750 |
|
$505,000 |
|
18.2% |
6.9% |
-16.2% |
-31.3% |
||
|
Del Norte |
$352,500 |
$369,000 |
|
$450,000 |
|
-4.5% |
-21.7% |
6.7% |
6.7% |
||
|
El Dorado |
$679,500 |
$717,500 |
|
$650,000 |
|
-5.3% |
4.5% |
3.6% |
-3.4% |
||
|
Humboldt |
$422,500 |
$450,000 |
|
$434,500 |
|
-6.1% |
-2.8% |
-11.7% |
-5.4% |
||
|
Lake |
$355,000 |
$364,500 |
|
$329,950 |
|
-2.6% |
7.6% |
39.6% |
8.1% |
||
|
Mariposa |
$415,000 |
$450,000 |
|
$410,000 |
|
-7.8% |
1.2% |
-13.0% |
81.8% |
||
|
Mendocino |
$469,500 |
$467,000 |
|
$567,500 |
|
0.5% |
-17.3% |
27.3% |
3.7% |
||
|
Mono |
$1,175,000 |
$1,064,000 |
|
$1,160,000 |
|
10.4% |
1.3% |
0.0% |
11.1% |
||
|
Nevada |
$560,000 |
$549,500 |
|
$560,000 |
|
1.9% |
0.0% |
-4.5% |
8.2% |
||
|
Sutter |
$435,000 |
$460,000 |
|
$416,500 |
|
-5.4% |
4.4% |
8.5% |
0.0% |
||
|
Tuolumne |
$435,000 |
$455,000 |
|
$420,950 |
|
-4.4% |
3.3% |
-9.5% |
-4.3% |
||
|
Yolo |
$599,450 |
$635,000 |
|
$620,960 |
|
-5.6% |
-3.5% |
0.0% |
-1.7% |
||
|
Yuba |
$440,000 |
$440,000 |
|
$448,000 |
|
0.0% |
-1.8% |
-22.5% |
-35.3% |
||
r = revised
NA = not available
August 2025 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
|
August 2025 |
Unsold Inventory Index |
Median Time on Market |
||||||||
|
State/Region/County |
August 2025 |
July 2025 |
|
August 2024 |
|
August 2025 |
July 2025 |
|
August 2024 |
|
|
Calif. Single-family home |
3.9 |
3.7 |
|
3.2 |
|
31.0 |
28.0 |
|
22.0 |
|
|
Calif. Condo/Townhome |
4.4 |
4.5 |
|
3.2 |
|
37.0 |
34.0 |
|
25.0 |
|
|
Los Angeles Metro Area |
4.1 |
3.9 |
|
3.3 |
|
33.0 |
30.0 |
|
24.0 |
|
|
Central Coast |
3.8 |
3.9 |
|
3.5 |
|
26.0 |
22.0 |
|
21.0 |
|
|
Central Valley |
3.8 |
3.6 |
|
3.0 |
|
31.0 |
27.0 |
|
22.0 |
|
|
Far North |
5.5 |
5.2 |
|
4.8 |
|
32.0 |
32.0 |
|
31.0 |
|
|
Inland Empire |
4.6 |
4.5 |
|
3.8 |
|
42.0 |
38.0 |
|
29.0 |
|
|
San Francisco Bay Area |
2.9 |
2.7 |
|
2.5 |
|
25.0 |
24.0 |
|
20.0 |
|
|
Southern California |
4.0 |
3.8 |
|
3.2 |
|
32.0 |
29.0 |
|
22.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
San Francisco Bay Area |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alameda |
2.6 |
2.4 |
|
2.4 |
|
16.0 |
16.0 |
|
14.0 |
|
|
Contra Costa |
3.1 |
3.1 |
|
2.4 |
|
21.0 |
18.0 |
|
16.0 |
|
|
Marin |
4.2 |
2.8 |
|
3.5 |
|
77.5 |
62.0 |
|
52.0 |
|
|
Napa |
8.4 |
7.0 |
|
6.4 |
|
82.0 |
56.0 |
|
61.5 |
|
|
San Francisco |
2.3 |
1.5 |
|
2.5 |
|
37.0 |
36.0 |
|
41.5 |
|
|
San Mateo |
2.2 |
1.8 |
|
2.1 |
|
13.0 |
13.0 |
|
12.0 |
|
|
Santa Clara |
1.9 |
1.9 |
|
1.7 |
|
13.0 |
13.0 |
|
10.0 |
|
|
Solano |
4.2 |
3.6 |
|
2.9 |
|
47.0 |
49.0 |
|
39.5 |
|
|
Sonoma |
3.7 |
3.7 |
|
3.4 |
|
67.0 |
63.0 |
|
54.5 |
|
|
Southern California |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Imperial |
3.3 |
2.3 |
|
3.0 |
|
24.0 |
25.0 |
|
8.0 |
|
|
Los Angeles |
4.3 |
3.7 |
|
3.1 |
|
28.0 |
27.0 |
|
21.0 |
|
|
Orange |
3.2 |
3.3 |
|
2.7 |
|
32.5 |
28.0 |
|
22.0 |
|
|
Riverside |
4.3 |
4.2 |
|
3.4 |
r |
46.0 |
40.0 |
|
30.0 |
r |
|
San Bernardino |
5.1 |
5.2 |
|
4.6 |
r |
34.0 |
35.0 |
|
28.0 |
r |
|
San Diego |
3.3 |
3.5 |
|
2.8 |
|
27.0 |
24.0 |
|
17.0 |
|
|
Ventura |
3.6 |
3.5 |
|
3.3 |
|
41.5 |
41.0 |
|
32.0 |
|
|
Central Coast |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Monterey |
4.2 |
4.2 |
|
4.1 |
|
21.0 |
22.5 |
|
18.0 |
|
|
San Luis Obispo |
3.6 |
3.7 |
|
3.2 |
|
32.5 |
32.0 |
|
27.0 |
|
|
Santa Barbara |
3.6 |
3.6 |
|
3.4 |
|
20.5 |
20.0 |
|
19.5 |
|
|
Santa Cruz |
4.1 |
4.0 |
|
3.3 |
|
23.5 |
16.0 |
|
18.0 |
|
|
Central Valley |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fresno |
3.8 |
3.5 |
|
3.3 |
|
27.0 |
17.0 |
|
21.0 |
|
|
Glenn |
2.9 |
3.1 |
|
2.8 |
|
39.0 |
40.0 |
|
24.0 |
|
|
Kern |
3.3 |
3.2 |
|
2.9 |
|
26.0 |
28.0 |
|
15.0 |
|
|
Kings |
3.1 |
3.2 |
|
2.2 |
|
33.5 |
35.0 |
|
28.0 |
|
|
Madera |
6.6 |
6.1 |
|
5.7 |
|
55.0 |
38.5 |
|
28.0 |
|
|
Merced |
3.4 |
3.8 |
|
3.3 |
|
33.0 |
27.0 |
|
33.0 |
|
|
Placer |
3.9 |
3.5 |
|
2.9 |
|
34.5 |
30.0 |
|
28.0 |
|
|
Sacramento |
3.2 |
3.0 |
|
2.5 |
|
28.0 |
27.0 |
|
21.0 |
|
|
San Benito |
4.3 |
4.5 |
|
4.5 |
|
43.0 |
20.0 |
|
31.5 |
|
|
San Joaquin |
4.5 |
4.5 |
|
3.0 |
|
39.0 |
31.0 |
|
24.0 |
|
|
Stanislaus |
3.7 |
3.9 |
|
3.2 |
|
25.5 |
25.0 |
|
16.5 |
|
|
Tulare |
4.3 |
3.3 |
|
3.0 |
|
32.0 |
33.0 |
|
24.0 |
|
|
Far North |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Butte |
4.5 |
3.2 |
|
3.1 |
|
26.0 |
30.0 |
|
20.0 |
|
|
Lassen |
6.3 |
8.2 |
|
8.5 |
|
46.5 |
33.0 |
|
64.0 |
|
|
Plumas |
5.1 |
8.8 |
|
5.4 |
|
32.0 |
44.5 |
|
24.0 |
|
|
Shasta |
4.9 |
4.6 |
|
4.3 |
|
35.0 |
28.0 |
|
34.0 |
|
|
Siskiyou |
7.7 |
8.8 |
|
7.4 |
|
38.0 |
30.5 |
|
40.0 |
|
|
Tehama |
7.8 |
5.0 |
|
6.2 |
|
42.0 |
54.5 |
|
42.0 |
|
|
Trinity |
18.1 |
15.6 |
|
14.9 |
|
45.0 |
34.0 |
|
65.0 |
|
|
Other Calif. Counties |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Amador |
7.3 |
7.6 |
|
6.3 |
|
49.0 |
58.0 |
|
30.0 |
|
|
Calaveras |
7.3 |
6.3 |
|
4.8 |
|
39.0 |
46.5 |
|
34.0 |
|
|
Del Norte |
6.6 |
7.6 |
|
7.7 |
|
49.5 |
61.0 |
|
29.0 |
|
|
El Dorado |
4.9 |
5.5 |
|
4.3 |
|
33.5 |
36.0 |
|
29.5 |
|
|
Humboldt |
6.0 |
5.6 |
|
5.2 |
|
39.5 |
29.5 |
|
36.5 |
|
|
Lake |
8.0 |
11.2 |
|
7.2 |
|
63.0 |
60.0 |
|
44.0 |
|
|
Mariposa |
7.3 |
6.5 |
|
10.6 |
|
56.0 |
24.0 |
|
27.0 |
|
|
Mendocino |
8.4 |
10.8 |
|
7.1 |
|
93.5 |
95.0 |
|
68.5 |
|
|
Mono |
3.4 |
4.3 |
|
4.1 |
|
37.0 |
12.0 |
|
38.0 |
|
|
Nevada |
5.1 |
5.2 |
|
5.3 |
|
59.0 |
40.0 |
|
36.0 |
|
|
Sutter |
4.2 |
4.6 |
|
3.2 |
|
44.0 |
30.0 |
|
22.0 |
|
|
Tuolumne |
7.7 |
7.6 |
|
6.0 |
|
35.0 |
53.5 |
|
23.0 |
|
|
Yolo |
3.2 |
3.8 |
|
2.7 |
|
29.0 |
33.5 |
|
19.0 |
|
|
Yuba |
6.3 |
5.0 |
|
3.5 |
|
36.0 |
32.0 |
|
26.0 |
|
r = revised
NA = not available
Article belongs to CAR.ORG
What you need to know: Governor Newsom today signed into law legislation to allow homeowners who receive insurance payments for lost or damaged property to receive the interest accrued rather than lenders.
The Ventura County Agri-Tech Fair will take place on September 23 from 8:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. at the Courtyard by Marriott Oxnard Ventura located at 600 East Esplanade Drive, Oxnard, CA. The event is free, but registrations are required. Registration is now available online.
Speakers include:
September 17, 2025
C.A.R. releases its 2026 California Housing Market Forecast
California home sales and median price are projected to inch up as housing affordability improves slightly.
LOS ANGELES (Sept. 17) – Following an essentially flat housing market in 2025, California home sales are forecast to inch up in 2026, with the median home price expected to reach a new projected record of $905,000, according to a housing and economic forecast released today by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.).
The baseline scenario of C.A.R.'s "2026 California Housing Market Forecast" sees an increase in existing single-family home sales of 2 percent next year to reach 274,400 units, up from the projected 2025 annual sales figure of 269,000. The projected 2025 figure is 0.1 percent lower compared with the pace of 269,200 homes sold in 2024.
The California median home price is forecast to rise 3.6 percent to $905,000 in 2026, following a projected 1 percent increase to $873,900 in 2025 from $865,400 in 2024. Despite softening home prices in recent months, lower interest rates and a slightly improved housing affordability environment will give room for prices to move up in the coming year.
"Home prices in California are expected to rise in 2026, but the growth pace will remain mild when compared to rates we've seen in past years," said C.A.R. President Heather Ozur, a Palm Springs REALTOR®. "For would-be buyers who sat out the competitive market during the past couple of years, that means more opportunities as inventory increases moderately and lending conditions become more favorable. Seller confidence will also improve as home prices stabilize and demand begins to rise again next year after a slow 2025."
C.A.R.'s 2026 forecast predicts U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate to slow 1 percent in 2026, after a projected increase of 1.3 percent in 2025. With California's 2026 nonfarm job growth rising by 0.3 percent after climbing a projected 0.4 percent in 2025, the state's unemployment rate will increase to 5.8 percent in 2026 from 2025's projected rate of 5.6 percent and 5.3 percent in 2024.
Inflation will likely pick up in the next 12 months, but the annual average Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 2025 will dip slightly to 2.8 percent, before bouncing back up to an average of 3.0 percent next year. The average 30-year, fixed mortgage interest rate will moderate slightly to 6.6 percent in 2025 but will decline more solidly to 6.0 percent in 2026. While next year's projected average for the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate will still be higher than the levels observed in the few years prior to the pandemic, it will be lower than the long-run average of nearly 8% in the past 50 years.
Housing supply in 2026 will continue to improve and will remain near pre-pandemic levels, with active listings up nearly 10% as market conditions and the lending environment continue to improve.
"As economic uncertainty begins to clear up in the next 12 months and mortgage rates start declining more consistently in the upcoming quarters, housing sentiment will see some improvement in 2026," said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. "However, mounting headwinds such as the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and its trading partners, the home insurance crisis, and a potential stock market bubble will remain challenges for the housing market in upcoming year," Levine continued.
2026 CALIFORNIA HOUSING FORECAST
|
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025p |
2026f |
|
|
SFH Resales (000s) |
398 |
411.9 |
444.5 |
343 |
257.9 |
269.2 |
269 |
274.4 |
|
% Change |
-1.20% |
3.50% |
7.90% |
-22.80% |
-24.80% |
4.40% |
-0.10% |
2.00% |
|
Median Price ($000s) |
$592.40 |
$659.40 |
$784.80 |
$819.40 |
$814.30 |
$865.40 |
$873.90 |
$905.00 |
|
% Change |
4.00% |
11.30% |
19.00% |
4.40% |
-0.60% |
6.30% |
1.00% |
3.60% |
|
Housing Affordability Index* |
31% |
32% |
26% |
19% |
17% |
16% |
17% |
18% |
|
30-Yr FRM |
3.90% |
3.10% |
3.00% |
5.30% |
6.80% |
6.70% |
6.60% |
6.00% |
p = projected
f = forecast
* = % of households who can afford to purchase a median-priced home
Leading the way ...® in California real estate for 120 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States, with more than 185,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.
# # #
Article belongs to CAR.org