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December
19
19
THE DIETARY GUIDELINES AND CALIFORNIA AVOCADOS
December
19
19
November home sales and price report
December 16, 2022
Rapid interest rate increases continue to depress California home sales and prices in November, C.A.R. reports
- Existing, single-family home sales totaled 237,740 in November on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 13.2 percent from October and down 47.7 percent from November 2021.
- November's statewide median home price was $777,500, down 3.0 percent from October and down 0.6 percent from November 2021.
- Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 21.2 percent in November.
LOS ANGELES (Dec. 16) – Housing demand in California continued to fall as rising interest rates further dampened the state's housing market in November as home sales registered the lowest annualized pace since October 2007 and the largest year-over-year sales drop in at least the past four decades, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.
Infographic: https://www.car.org/Global/Infographics/2022-11-Sales-and-Price
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 237,740 in November, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2022 if sales maintained the November pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales. November's sales pace was down 13.2 percent on a monthly basis from 274,040 in October and down 47.7 percent from a year ago, when 454,450 homes were sold on an annualized basis. The year-to-year sales decline was the biggest since 1980.
Home sales have been on a downward trend for 17 straight months on a year-over-year basis. It was the fourth time in the last five months that sales dropped more than 30 percent from the year-ago level. The monthly 13.2 percent sales decline was worse than the long-run average of -0.5 percent change recorded between an October and a November in the past 43 years. Sales in all price segments dropped more than 40 percent year-over-year, with the $2 million plus price segment falling the most at 47.7percent. The most affordable market (sub-$300,000) experienced the smallest sales drop at 41.4 percent.
"While interest rates are higher than year-ago levels, they have been declining since early November from the recent peak of over 7 percent," said C.A.R. President Jennifer Branchini, a Bay Area REALTOR®. "With home prices cooling and market competition easing in recent months, some qualified buyers who missed out on the hurried market of the last two years are taking advantage of the shift and finding sellers more willing to negotiate than they have been up to this point."
California's median home price declined for the third straight month, dropping 3.0 percent in November to $777,500 from the $801,190 recorded in October. November's price was 0.6 percent lower than the $782,480 recorded last November and marked the first year-over-year price decline in 30 months. The November 2022 price was also the lowest since February 2022.
"As expected, higher borrowing costs, lower demand, and rising uncertainty finally caused prices to moderate for the first time in more than a decade while home sales dropped further," said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. "With mortgage rates rising at the fastest pace in years, sales and price growth will likely remain on a downward trend in the short term. However, pending sales suggest that the pace of declines should moderate in the coming months."
Other key points from C.A.R.'s November 2022 resale housing report include:
- At the regional level, all regions except the Far North recorded year-over-year sales drops of more than 40%, with Southern California dipping the most at -46.9 percent, followed by Central Coast (-43.5 percent), the San Francisco Bay Area (-43.0 percent) and Central Valley (-42.3 percent). Southern California saw the biggest year-over-year sales drop again as all six counties within the region marked sales declines of more than 44 percent in November. The Far North region experienced the smallest annual sales decline at 37.7 percent.
- Of all the counties that C.A.R. tracks, only Mendocino experienced a year-over-year sales growth (+4.5 percent) in November, while the other 50 counties all registered sales declines from last year by more than 10 percent. In fact, home sales plummeted by more than 40 percent from last November in 28 counties. San Benito had the biggest drop in home sales at -68.9 percent, followed by Mariposa (-60.0 percent), Amador (-58.3 percent) and Lassen (-58.3 percent). Other counties with sales cut in half or more from last year include San Bernardino (-55.1 percent), San Joaquin (-53.3 percent), San Ventura (-53.2 percent), Solano (-51.2 percent) and El Dorado (-50 percent).
- Sharp declines in housing demand continued to apply downward pressure on home prices as median prices in three of the five major regions dropped mildly from a year ago. San Francisco Bay Area experienced the biggest price decline from last year at -5.8 percent, followed by the Far North (-3.7 percent) and the Central Valley (-1.3 percent). Central Coast (0.1 percent) and Southern California's (0.0 percent) median prices were virtually unchanged or flat on a year-over-year basis, despite having the largest sales drops among all regions in November.
- More counties began to experience negative price growth in November as 33 counties registered median prices declines in November, a jump from 22 counties in the prior month.Mariposa (-27.2 percent) had the biggest price drop of all counties, followed by San Francisco (-21.1 percent) and Lassen (-20.6 percent). Prices were up from last year in 16 counties in November, with three counties gaining by double-digits. Napa posted the biggest price increase of all counties with a 29.4 percent yearly growth, followed by San Luis Obispo (14.8 percent) and Siskiyou (14.4 percent).
- Housing inventory in California continued to rise both month-to-month and year-to-year as the market entered its holiday season and home sellers remained on the sideline. The statewide unsold inventory index (UII) was unchanged from the prior month at 3.3 months in November, but it was more than doubled the level of 1.6 months recorded in the same month of last year. All price ranges posted an increase in their UII from a year ago by 88 percent or more, with unsold inventory in the $1 million+ price range rising the most (128.6 percent), followed by the $500,000-$749,000 price range (113.3 percent), the $750,000- $999,000 (113.3 percent) and the sub-$500,000 (88.9 percent) ranges.
- The significant pullback in housing demand continued to push up inventory as 45 of the 51 counties tracked by C.A.R. registered an increase in active listings from last November.Fourteen counties recorded a triple-digit year-over-year gain in November with Yolo topping the list once again with a yearly growth of 158.5 percent, followed by Sutter (148.0 percent) and Yuba (141.3 percent). Despite an overall improvement in housing supply conditions, six counties registered a contraction in active listings from the same month of last year. Del Norte continued to have the largest decline in November with a drop of 35.6 percent year-over-year, followed by Mono (-33.3 percent) and Glenn (-10.0 percent).
- The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 24 days in November and 11 days in November 2021.
- C.A.R.'s statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio* was 96.7 percent in November 2022 and 101.4 percent in November 2021.
- The statewide average price per square foot** for an existing single-family home was $392, down from $393 in November a year ago.
- The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 6.81 percent in November, up from 3.07 percent in November 2021, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate averaged 6.01 percent, compared to 2.51 percent in November 2021.
Note: The County MLS median price and sales data in the tables are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS® throughout the state and represent statistics of existing single-family detached homes only. County sales data is not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as changes in the cost of a standard home. The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical than average prices, which are skewed by a relatively small share of transactions at either the lower end or the upper end. Median prices can be influenced by changes in cost, as well as changes in the characteristics and the size of homes sold. The change in median prices should not be construed as actual price changes in specific homes.
*Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.
**Price per square foot is a measure commonly used by real estate agents and brokers to determine how much a square foot of space a buyer will pay for a property. It is calculated as the sale price of the home divided by the number of finished square feet. C.A.R. currently tracks price-per-square foot statistics for 50 counties.
Leading the way…® in California real estate for more than 110 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with more than 217,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.
November 2022 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
|
November 2022 |
Median Sold Price of Existing Single-Family Homes |
Sales |
|||||||
|
State/Region/County |
Nov. 2022 |
Oct. 2022 |
|
Nov. 2021 |
|
Price MTM% Chg |
Price YTY% Chg |
Sales MTM% Chg |
Sales YTY% Chg |
|
Calif. Single-family home |
$777,500 |
$801,190 |
|
$782,480 |
|
-3.0% |
-0.6% |
-13.2% |
-47.7% |
|
Calif. Condo/Townhome |
$612,000 |
$625,000 |
r |
$620,000 |
|
-2.1% |
2.7% |
-13.8% |
-46.0% |
|
Los Angeles Metro Area |
$720,000 |
$742,000 |
r |
$720,000 |
|
-3.0% |
2.4% |
-16.7% |
-47.5% |
|
Central Coast |
$900,000 |
$937,500 |
|
$899,000 |
|
-4.0% |
0.1% |
-13.2% |
-43.5% |
|
Central Valley |
$445,990 |
$450,000 |
|
$452,000 |
|
-0.9% |
-1.3% |
-14.4% |
-42.3% |
|
Far North |
$366,000 |
$394,000 |
|
$380,000 |
|
-7.1% |
-3.7% |
-19.9% |
-37.7% |
|
Inland Empire |
$540,000 |
$550,000 |
|
$529,000 |
|
-1.8% |
2.1% |
-14.3% |
-50.6% |
|
San Francisco Bay Area |
$1,225,000 |
$1,250,000 |
|
$1,300,000 |
|
-2.0% |
-5.8% |
-13.4% |
-43.0% |
|
Southern California |
$750,000 |
$770,000 |
r |
$750,000 |
|
-2.6% |
0.0% |
-15.7% |
-46.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
San Francisco Bay Area |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alameda |
$1,175,000 |
$1,250,000 |
|
$1,300,000 |
|
-6.0% |
-9.6% |
-10.8% |
-40.1% |
|
Contra Costa |
$890,000 |
$867,000 |
|
$876,000 |
|
2.7% |
1.6% |
-13.4% |
-46.3% |
|
Marin |
$1,535,000 |
$1,662,500 |
|
$1,535,000 |
|
-7.7% |
0.0% |
-14.4% |
-21.9% |
|
Napa |
$1,050,000 |
$975,000 |
|
$811,600 |
|
7.7% |
29.4% |
26.4% |
-30.9% |
|
San Francisco |
$1,500,000 |
$1,692,500 |
|
$1,900,000 |
|
-11.4% |
-21.1% |
-3.7% |
-35.1% |
|
San Mateo |
$1,782,500 |
$1,900,000 |
|
$2,222,500 |
|
-6.2% |
-19.8% |
-12.1% |
-45.4% |
|
Santa Clara |
$1,600,000 |
$1,625,000 |
|
$1,692,500 |
|
-1.5% |
-5.5% |
-19.9% |
-47.0% |
|
Solano |
$560,000 |
$565,000 |
|
$593,000 |
|
-0.9% |
-5.6% |
-23.3% |
-51.2% |
|
Sonoma |
$834,580 |
$797,570 |
|
$775,000 |
|
4.6% |
7.7% |
-12.2% |
-40.3% |
|
Southern California |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Los Angeles |
$836,630 |
$854,560 |
r |
$847,790 |
r |
-2.1% |
-1.3% |
-16.3% |
-44.5% |
|
Orange |
$1,100,000 |
$1,165,000 |
|
$1,150,000 |
|
-5.6% |
-4.3% |
-19.0% |
-46.1% |
|
Riverside |
$580,000 |
$599,990 |
|
$586,900 |
|
-3.3% |
-1.2% |
-12.0% |
-47.5% |
|
San Bernardino |
$437,500 |
$465,000 |
|
$440,000 |
|
-5.9% |
-0.6% |
-18.1% |
-55.1% |
|
San Diego |
$865,000 |
$860,000 |
|
$847,750 |
|
0.6% |
2.0% |
-11.4% |
-44.1% |
|
Ventura |
$860,000 |
$855,000 |
|
$858,500 |
|
0.6% |
0.2% |
-27.2% |
-53.2% |
|
Central Coast |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Monterey |
$819,500 |
$865,000 |
|
$830,000 |
|
-5.3% |
-1.3% |
-19.2% |
-47.2% |
|
San Luis Obispo |
$890,000 |
$815,000 |
|
$775,060 |
|
9.2% |
14.8% |
-14.8% |
-49.3% |
|
Santa Barbara |
$800,000 |
$1,115,000 |
|
$1,003,000 |
|
-28.3% |
-20.2% |
-5.2% |
-29.5% |
|
Santa Cruz |
$1,245,000 |
$1,362,000 |
|
$1,260,000 |
|
-8.6% |
-1.2% |
-14.0% |
-45.9% |
|
Central Valley |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fresno |
$393,000 |
$400,000 |
|
$385,000 |
|
-1.8% |
2.1% |
-6.0% |
-34.7% |
|
Glenn |
$309,000 |
$310,000 |
|
$360,000 |
|
-0.3% |
-14.2% |
27.3% |
-12.5% |
|
Kern |
$370,000 |
$379,980 |
|
$336,940 |
|
-2.6% |
9.8% |
-19.6% |
-45.9% |
|
Kings |
$325,000 |
$328,000 |
|
$333,500 |
|
-0.9% |
-2.5% |
-15.6% |
-39.8% |
|
Madera |
$413,000 |
$400,000 |
|
$392,500 |
|
3.3% |
5.2% |
-13.1% |
-37.7% |
|
Merced |
$367,750 |
$380,000 |
|
$375,000 |
|
-3.2% |
-1.9% |
-11.6% |
-40.6% |
|
Placer |
$620,000 |
$645,000 |
|
$650,000 |
|
-3.9% |
-4.6% |
-16.5% |
-36.8% |
|
Sacramento |
$510,000 |
$512,500 |
|
$515,000 |
|
-0.5% |
-1.0% |
-12.9% |
-44.8% |
|
San Benito |
$667,390 |
$761,000 |
|
$800,000 |
|
-12.3% |
-16.6% |
-48.6% |
-68.9% |
|
San Joaquin |
$506,000 |
$497,890 |
|
$495,000 |
|
1.6% |
2.2% |
-19.9% |
-53.3% |
|
Stanislaus |
$430,000 |
$430,000 |
|
$435,000 |
|
0.0% |
-1.1% |
-17.4% |
-36.0% |
|
Tulare |
$361,990 |
$369,000 |
|
$335,000 |
|
-1.9% |
8.1% |
-11.1% |
-40.8% |
|
Far North |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Butte |
$435,000 |
$438,750 |
|
$435,000 |
|
-0.9% |
0.0% |
-10.0% |
-26.7% |
|
Lassen |
$210,250 |
$290,500 |
|
$264,750 |
|
-27.6% |
-20.6% |
-33.3% |
-58.3% |
|
Plumas |
$375,000 |
$442,500 |
|
$380,000 |
|
-15.3% |
-1.3% |
-14.7% |
-34.1% |
|
Shasta |
$350,000 |
$382,250 |
|
$375,000 |
|
-8.4% |
-6.7% |
-27.8% |
-44.8% |
|
Siskiyou |
$342,000 |
$326,750 |
|
$299,000 |
|
4.7% |
14.4% |
-15.8% |
-31.9% |
|
Tehama |
$302,000 |
$272,500 |
|
$325,000 |
|
10.8% |
-7.1% |
-7.1% |
-25.7% |
|
Other Calif. Counties |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Amador |
$402,500 |
$365,000 |
|
$432,500 |
|
10.3% |
-6.9% |
-33.3% |
-58.3% |
|
Calaveras |
$444,000 |
$414,500 |
|
$465,320 |
|
7.1% |
-4.6% |
-1.6% |
-40.0% |
|
Del Norte |
$367,500 |
$389,900 |
|
$384,380 |
|
-5.7% |
-4.4% |
-15.8% |
-48.4% |
|
El Dorado |
$612,500 |
$684,000 |
|
$665,000 |
|
-10.5% |
-7.9% |
-21.0% |
-50.0% |
|
Humboldt |
$449,000 |
$439,500 |
|
$450,750 |
|
2.2% |
-0.4% |
-23.1% |
-25.9% |
|
Lake |
$336,000 |
$353,000 |
|
$335,000 |
|
-4.8% |
0.3% |
-9.5% |
-19.7% |
|
Mariposa |
$363,500 |
$399,000 |
|
$499,500 |
|
-8.9% |
-27.2% |
-50.0% |
-60.0% |
|
Mendocino |
$540,000 |
$530,000 |
|
$522,500 |
|
1.9% |
3.3% |
12.2% |
4.5% |
|
Mono |
$870,000 |
$960,000 |
|
$840,000 |
|
-9.4% |
3.6% |
-18.2% |
-30.8% |
|
Nevada |
$526,000 |
$532,500 |
|
$561,250 |
|
-1.2% |
-6.3% |
-12.6% |
-30.8% |
|
Sutter |
$409,000 |
$412,500 |
|
$425,000 |
|
-0.8% |
-3.8% |
10.0% |
-41.3% |
|
Tuolumne |
$385,000 |
$368,260 |
|
$399,000 |
|
4.5% |
-3.5% |
-28.2% |
-20.0% |
|
Yolo |
$620,000 |
$595,000 |
|
$585,000 |
|
4.2% |
6.0% |
-22.7% |
-38.0% |
|
Yuba |
$399,450 |
$405,000 |
|
$415,000 |
|
-1.4% |
-3.7% |
-21.6% |
-37.6% |
r = revised
November 2022 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)
|
November 2022 |
Unsold Inventory Index |
Median Time on Market |
||||||||
|
State/Region/County |
Nov. 2022 |
Oct. 2022 |
|
Nov. 2021 |
|
Nov. 2022 |
Oct. 2022 |
|
Nov. 2021 |
|
|
Calif. Single-family home |
3.3 |
3.2 |
r |
1.6 |
|
24.0 |
23.0 |
|
11.0 |
|
|
Calif. Condo/Townhome |
2.8 |
2.8 |
|
1.4 |
|
23.0 |
21.0 |
|
11.0 |
|
|
Los Angeles Metro Area |
3.7 |
3.5 |
r |
1.7 |
|
26.0 |
24.0 |
|
12.0 |
|
|
Central Coast |
3.1 |
3.0 |
|
1.6 |
|
23.0 |
20.0 |
|
10.0 |
|
|
Central Valley |
3.3 |
3.2 |
|
1.6 |
|
23.0 |
21.0 |
|
9.0 |
|
|
Far North |
4.7 |
4.2 |
|
2.7 |
|
35.0 |
35.0 |
|
17.0 |
|
|
Inland Empire |
4.3 |
3.9 |
|
1.9 |
|
30.0 |
27.0 |
|
14.0 |
|
|
San Francisco Bay Area |
2.2 |
2.4 |
|
1.0 |
|
21.0 |
20.0 |
|
12.0 |
|
|
Southern California |
3.6 |
3.4 |
r |
1.7 |
|
24.0 |
23.0 |
r |
11.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
San Francisco Bay Area |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alameda |
1.8 |
2.1 |
|
0.9 |
|
16.0 |
16.0 |
|
11.0 |
|
|
Contra Costa |
2.3 |
2.5 |
|
1.0 |
|
19.0 |
23.0 |
|
9.0 |
|
|
Marin |
1.7 |
2.3 |
|
1.0 |
|
28.0 |
22.0 |
|
20.5 |
|
|
Napa |
3.3 |
5.4 |
|
2.2 |
|
42.0 |
35.0 |
|
40.0 |
|
|
San Francisco |
2.2 |
2.8 |
|
1.2 |
|
21.0 |
13.5 |
|
13.0 |
|
|
San Mateo |
2.2 |
2.3 |
|
1.0 |
|
14.0 |
13.0 |
|
9.0 |
|
|
Santa Clara |
1.8 |
1.8 |
|
0.9 |
|
14.0 |
13.0 |
|
8.0 |
|
|
Solano |
3.2 |
2.9 |
|
1.2 |
|
41.0 |
48.0 |
|
28.0 |
|
|
Sonoma |
2.6 |
2.8 |
|
1.4 |
|
35.0 |
36.0 |
|
38.0 |
|
|
Southern California |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Los Angeles |
3.6 |
3.6 |
r |
1.8 |
|
23.0 |
20.0 |
|
11.0 |
|
|
Orange |
3.1 |
2.8 |
|
1.3 |
|
21.0 |
25.0 |
|
8.0 |
|
|
Riverside |
4.2 |
3.9 |
|
1.8 |
|
29.0 |
28.0 |
|
14.0 |
|
|
San Bernardino |
4.4 |
4.0 |
|
2.0 |
|
32.0 |
27.0 |
|
13.0 |
|
|
San Diego |
2.9 |
3.0 |
|
1.3 |
|
18.0 |
18.0 |
|
9.0 |
|
|
Ventura |
3.0 |
2.4 |
|
1.4 |
|
30.0 |
33.5 |
|
23.0 |
|
|
Central Coast |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Monterey |
3.6 |
3.2 |
|
1.8 |
|
31.5 |
25.0 |
|
12.0 |
|
|
San Luis Obispo |
3.1 |
3.0 |
|
1.4 |
|
17.0 |
17.0 |
|
8.0 |
|
|
Santa Barbara |
2.5 |
2.8 |
|
1.8 |
|
22.5 |
18.0 |
|
9.0 |
|
|
Santa Cruz |
3.3 |
3.2 |
|
1.3 |
|
18.0 |
21.5 |
|
10.0 |
|
|
Central Valley |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fresno |
3.3 |
3.4 |
|
1.7 |
|
18.0 |
18.0 |
|
9.0 |
|
|
Glenn |
2.6 |
4.4 |
|
2.6 |
|
13.0 |
48.0 |
|
8.0 |
|
|
Kern |
3.4 |
3.1 |
|
1.5 |
|
22.0 |
21.0 |
|
10.0 |
|
|
Kings |
3.2 |
2.8 |
|
1.4 |
|
14.0 |
14.0 |
|
9.0 |
|
|
Madera |
5.8 |
5.3 |
|
2.9 |
|
21.0 |
23.0 |
|
16.5 |
|
|
Merced |
3.4 |
3.5 |
|
1.6 |
|
20.5 |
39.0 |
|
10.5 |
|
|
Placer |
3.2 |
3.1 |
|
1.5 |
|
26.0 |
22.0 |
|
8.0 |
|
|
Sacramento |
2.8 |
2.9 |
|
1.3 |
|
22.0 |
21.0 |
|
9.0 |
|
|
San Benito |
6.6 |
3.8 |
|
1.7 |
|
40.0 |
35.0 |
|
11.0 |
|
|
San Joaquin |
3.7 |
3.3 |
|
1.4 |
|
27.0 |
31.0 |
|
12.0 |
|
|
Stanislaus |
2.6 |
2.5 |
|
1.5 |
|
27.0 |
22.0 |
|
9.0 |
|
|
Tulare |
3.8 |
3.7 |
|
1.8 |
|
20.0 |
13.0 |
|
9.0 |
|
|
Far North |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Butte |
3.5 |
3.4 |
|
1.9 |
|
30.0 |
20.0 |
|
10.0 |
|
|
Lassen |
10.8 |
8.1 |
|
4.8 |
|
72.5 |
63.0 |
|
113.0 |
|
|
Plumas |
3.8 |
4.1 |
|
2.6 |
|
94.0 |
79.0 |
|
80.5 |
|
|
Shasta |
4.8 |
3.9 |
|
2.5 |
|
20.0 |
27.5 |
|
11.0 |
|
|
Siskiyou |
5.0 |
4.6 |
|
3.9 |
|
34.5 |
56.0 |
|
29.5 |
|
|
Tehama |
6.7 |
6.7 |
|
4.3 |
|
47.0 |
70.0 |
|
40.0 |
|
|
Other Calif. Counties |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Amador |
6.3 |
4.4 |
|
1.8 |
|
55.0 |
17.0 |
|
15.5 |
|
|
Calaveras |
4.2 |
4.6 |
|
2.5 |
|
55.0 |
59.0 |
|
58.0 |
|
|
Del Norte |
4.0 |
3.3 |
|
2.5 |
|
84.0 |
72.0 |
|
98.0 |
|
|
El Dorado |
3.6 |
3.5 |
|
1.7 |
|
41.0 |
34.0 |
|
18.5 |
|
|
Humboldt |
5.0 |
4.0 |
|
2.4 |
|
21.0 |
15.5 |
|
12.0 |
|
|
Lake |
6.3 |
6.0 |
|
4.7 |
|
47.0 |
37.0 |
|
27.0 |
|
|
Mariposa |
9.8 |
5.2 |
|
3.7 |
|
42.5 |
38.0 |
|
24.0 |
|
|
Mendocino |
5.8 |
7.1 |
|
5.0 |
|
57.0 |
55.0 |
|
45.5 |
|
|
Mono |
3.2 |
3.4 |
|
3.4 |
|
146.0 |
111.0 |
|
83.0 |
|
|
Nevada |
4.0 |
4.0 |
|
2.8 |
|
30.0 |
39.0 |
|
18.5 |
|
|
Sutter |
3.5 |
4.5 |
|
1.8 |
|
20.5 |
22.0 |
|
9.0 |
|
|
Tuolumne |
4.7 |
3.9 |
|
3.7 |
|
74.5 |
71.5 |
|
30.0 |
|
|
Yolo |
2.5 |
2.2 |
|
1.1 |
|
22.0 |
19.0 |
|
12.0 |
|
|
Yuba |
||||||||||
article belongs to CAR.ORG
December
7
7
California mortgage-making takes record 63% dive
California mortgage-making takes record 63% dive
Soaring interest rates made most loans unaffordable.
"Crash, correction or chill" looks at economic and real estate trends that offer hints about the depth of housing's troubles.
Buzz: California mortgage-making took a record tumble this summer as soaring interest rates made most loans unaffordable.
Source: My trusty spreadsheet analyzed third-quarter mortgage lending trends compiled by Attom. These stats, dating to 2000, look at loan-making in 210 metro areas nationwide – including 19 regions in California.
Topline
Californians in 19 metro areas took out 177,566 mortgages from July through September.
That's the second-slowest slowest three months of the century. It's also a stunning 63% nosedive from the year-ago period, making this the biggest 12-month drop on record.
Yes, this home-loan crater is deeper than anything we witnessed during the bubble-bursting housing meltdown of the mid-2000s.
How did this happen?
The Federal Reserve ballooned rates to battle surging inflation. In the past 12 months, the average 30-year loan jumped to 6.9% from 3.1%, according to Freddie Mac.
Skyrocketing rates slashed a house hunter's potential "borrowing" power by 35% in a year and topped the 33% decline of 1980, another high inflation era when rates went to 16.3% from 10.5%.
So this summer, mortgages made to buy a home fell by 53% from a year ago. And homeowners refinanced 82% fewer loans.
Strikingly, owners did take out 74% more home equity loans. This tactic has become the preferred way to pull cash from a house without losing the great rates on an older mortgage.
By the way, this is not some California-only trend. Every U.S. metro tracked by Attom saw fewer mortgage deals cut in the past year.
The nation, minus the California metros, had 1.8 million mortgages made this summer – a 44% drop over 12 months, also the largest decline on record. There were 30% fewer purchase loans, and 66% fewer refis but 45% more home equity loans.
Crash, correction or chill?
Crash: If you make mortgages for a living, this is a huge disaster. No loans. No paychecks.
Mortgage broker Jeff Lazerson, a Southern California News Group contributor, recently wrote he laid off two-thirds of his staff: "Business has all but stopped for mortgage lenders. And, yes, it's much worse than the mortgage volume collapse I remember from the Great Recession."
Correction: For the broad housing market, it's part of a return to normalcy from a boom fueled by the Fed's cheap money policies of the early pandemic era. This year's rate surge is designed to slow the overall economy as well as housing.
Chill: Speaking to the big picture, this dramatically slowed lending is a relatively minor annoyance.
The loss of home sales is an economic minus. But, remember, thanks to 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages, the Fed's gift to any owner who refinanced in recent years remains in place.
That extra cash from shrunken mortgage payments is still being spent. It's one slice of the overheated, inflation-filled economy. And the improved household cash flow can be a financial cushion against any significant downturn.
The unknown
Lenders have been very conservative about who gets mortgages in this cycle. So it's a reasonable bet the surge in home-equity lending is being done prudently. (Fingers crossed!)
But if the uptick in home-equity loans is due to the financial strain of borrowers, that's a worrisome pattern for the broad economic picture.
Details
How mortgage-making slows in some of California's largest housing markets, ranked by the size of the one-year drop in lending through the summer …
San Jose: 8,114 mortgages made in the third quarter, down 71% (the No. 1 dip among all U.S. metros). That came from 60% fewer purchase loans closed, 89% fewer refinance deals, but 46% more home-equity loans.
San Francisco: 22,048 mortgages, down 67% (No. 5 of the 210) – 56% fewer purchase loans, 86% less refis, but 35% more equity loans.
Ventura County: 4,212 mortgages, down 65% (No. 8) – 54% fewer purchase loans, 86% fewer refis, but 85% more equity loans.
San Diego: 16,835 mortgages, down 65% (No. 9) – 56% fewer purchase loans, 84% fewer refis, but 79% more equity loans.
Los Angeles-Orange County: 51,431 mortgages, down 64% (No. 12) – 55% fewer purchase loans, 83% fewer refis, but 82% more equity loans.
Sacramento: 15,422 mortgages, down 62% (No. 18) – 49% fewer purchase loans, 83% fewer refis, but 94% more equity loans.
Inland Empire: 28,247 mortgages, down 60% (No. 22) – 49% fewer purchase loans, 78% fewer refis, but 127% more equity loans.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
December
7
7
California Housing Market Report
California Housing Market Report
Housing Market California
October's latest housing stats show sales are declining significantly again across California.
Experts are forecasting declining prices yet that hasn't transpired to a great degree, given they're still up overall vs October 2021.
San Diego, Los Angeles and San Francisco counties are seeing price declines now after price growth had only slowed during the last 8 months. However in the cities, property prices actually increased. See more below.
Screenshot courtesy of CAR. November latest stats from California Association of Realtors.
Clearly, rising mortgage rates, now at 7% are scaring away home buyers and rental market investors. Mortgage and refinancing applications have plunged to all-time lows. Pending sales are down 50%, and closed sales dropped more than 10% vs September and are down 36.9% vs 12 months ago.
CAR's Realtor sentiment for period ending Nov 12th, reveals Reatlors show less listings and showings down, and those entering escrow well down. Their expectation of sales and listings down, and listings well down. It seems the stats of more listings isn't holding water.
Given the dire buying conditions, we could reasonably predict inventories will climb and sales drop faster throughout the winter.
And we might predict price declines will pick up pace given buyers have so many reasons to sit on the sidelines. More calls are coming in for a 20% drop in the housing market.
With the Fed having so much difficulty slowing inflation, the prediction is another sizable interest rate hike this year and more forecast for 2023. That would definitely hit all housing markets hard.
2023 C.A.R. President Jennifer Branchini believes the housing market bottom is in sight. "While October's sales and price results were weaker than what we've experienced in the past couple of years and could slow further in the upcoming off-season, the market bottom could be in sight."
Home Sales and Prices Regions. Screenshot courtesy of CAR.
Forecast for Next Year?
C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine said "High inflationary pressures will keep mortgage rates elevated, which will reduce homebuyers' purchasing power and depress housing affordability in the upcoming year. With borrowing costs remaining high in the next 12 months, a pull-back in sales and a downward adjustment in home prices are expected in 2023."
Levine added, "Home prices will also moderate further over the next several months as interest rates remain elevated in the near term and seasonal factors come into play."
CAR in its 2023 California Housing Market Forecast report, predicts a 7.2% drop existing single-family home sales in 2023. It will fall to reach 333,450 sold unit units, down from their projected sales volume of 359,220 units this year, which is predicted to be 19.2% less than the 444,520 homes sold in 2021.
The median home price outlook is for a decline of 8.8% to $758,600 next year following a projected 5.7% growth this year to $831,460.
California Realtors Housing Forecast to 2023. Screenshot courtesy of California Association of Realtors.
Yet another rate hike in November has sent mortgage applications to record lows and sales down.
Home sales California October 2022. Screenshot courtesy of California Association of Realtors
Home Prices by price segment. Screenshot courtesy of California Association of Realtors
The rental market however appears to be a different story from the home resales market. Rental property investors have a completely different opportunity to recover their costs (with well selected properties).
CAR Realtors Survey November
California Realtors polled in November are bleak about their prospects. They report activity down, buyers seriously getting cold feet and optimism waning.
Realtors Survey Sentiment. Screenshot courtesy of California Association of Realtors
California Housing Consumer Sentiment Index
CAR's housing consumer index fell 5 points to hit 65, with 85% of respondents saying it's not a good time to buy. 96% have no intention to buy in the next 12 months which projects tougher selling conditions for sellers. Only 35% believe economic conditions will improve and 76% don't believe interest rates will fall next year.
October Home Sales and Prices in California
The main October Sales/Price chart from CAR reflects a deepening trend. It was the 16th month in a row where sales dipped year over year. House prices fell 2.5% while condo prices actually rose .2%.
The Los Angeles metro region saw house prices fall 1% in October after a 2% drop in September. In the Bay Area, prices fell slightly by .5% (-6,500) and in San Diego fell 4.3% (-$39,000).
Active Inventory Rising
Active listings remained steady. 47 of 51 CA counties saw an increase in active listings (YoY) again in October. 5 northern counties saw inventory increases over 100%, yet prices were not all down in those counties.
California Home Inventory. Screenshot courtesy of California Association of Realtors
Home Prices
Home prices have been trending downward for many months and fell 2.1% in September.
Home prices reclined strongest in Tehama (-9.8%), Los Angeles (-4.2), Santa Clara (-4.4%), Marin (-4.2), San Diego (-4.3), and Mono (-13.1).
Home Prices rose most in Mariposa (+16.6%), Santa Barbara (+23.2%), Monterey (+5.2%), Santa Cruz (+11.09%), and Lassen (+8%).
California Home Median Prices. Screenshot courtesy of California Association of Realtors
Despite market conditions, sellers are increasingly demanding a higher price, while closing prices fall.
Hottest Cities in California
Those cities with the highest price growth reported by Redfin:
Cities with highest price growth. Screenshot courtesy of Redfin.
Californians Looking Elsewhere
California has the highest percentage of people looking to buy elsewhere. California, New York, District of Columbia, Massachusetts, and Illinois were the top 5 states homebuyers searched to move from. The top 5 states homebuyers searched to move to were Florida, Texas, Arizona, Maryland, and South Carolina.
The combination of housing market downturn risk, rising interest rates, and inflation are making more Californian homeowners consider selling their property this fall. That selling intention is lessened by desires to get a comfortable price, having to make extreme relocation choices, and entering into a new, more expensive mortgage.
It's perhaps the most difficult time for sellers to be able to sell their home.
Buyers in many states are still walking away from deals at a faster pace too given they can now walk away if they can't get the right financing, don't like inspection reports, and other reasons. The desperate bidding war environment where they waived inspections, etc. has ended. According to Redfin, nationwide, buyers walked away from 15% of deals in August.
As layoffs in the corporate sector grow against fast rising mortgage rates, August and September's housing market decline may worsen the October and December outlook.
California Condo/Townhouse Prices Rise
Condo prices rose surprisingly by $1000 vs last month although sales did decline by1 2%. Year over year, prices are up 2.7% even though sales have plummeted by 40%.
Prices in SF rose 2.% while still being down 30.3% year over year. Southern California saw prices drop 1.7% and are down a steep 37.9%. It has answered the much asked question in the past ten years about will prices drop.
Screenshot courtesy of CAR. Condo prices and sales October 2022.
The forecast for landlords and the rental sector is a little better. Those rental managers who use a next generation property management software are most likely to generate the best profitability in 2023. See more on the rental market forecast. Find the best rental properties in California.
Mortgage Rates
Mortgages did experience a reduction in growth rate, however with more Fed rate hikes expected, it should dampen enthusiasm and qualification for home loans for more buyers.
September Housing Stats for Major Metros
The Los Angeles Metro Area in September suffered a 1% drop in price or $7,430 on average on the sale of a single family houses to $742,570. Sales in Metro LA fell 12.% from September and are down 40.8% from 12 months ago.
The Central Coast region saw its average price rise 1.9% or $17,500 while sales fell 22% vs September and were down 38.8% from 12 months ago.
The San Francisco Bay Area saw prices rise .5% to $1,250,500 while sales declined 3.4% vs September — down 26% year over year.
In San Francisco itself, home prices rose $42,500 or .2.6% vs September while sales increased 7.4%.
Orange County saw house prices fall $35,000 or 3.1% to$1,165,000, which is up 4% from one year ago. San Bernardino County saw house prices fall 3.1% or $15,000 to a new median of $480,000. Riverside home prices stayed even at about $600,000 while sales declined 19.2% vs last month.
In San Diego County, homes prices rose $4,000 to $899,000, a 1.6% jump while sales fell 15.6% in October.
In Sacramento County, existing home prices fell 1.4% or ($7,500) in October, while sales grew 4.7% fell 19.2%.
California Exodus Pushing Prices up Elsewhere?
California is being blamed for fast rising housing prices in other states such as Utah and Idaho. An exodus of people and businesses might sound threatening but it may be that this state's housing market is invincible. People want to live or rent in California.
There's always buyers for California properties in any of its cities. If high taxes, regulations, fires, floods, inflation and high prices can't scare buyers away, what could?
Looking for the best cities to buy a rental property and need to learn more about property management services? Get more insight and tips on the rental market on the ManageCasa Blog.
Calls for an economic recession and flat 2023 sales year would have most experts seeing reduced sales and prices in California which is seeing businesses and residents flee to more tax and cost friendly states such as Texas and Florida.
Inflation came in at 8.2% in September. If energy prices rise this fall, it's easy to predict stronger Fed rate hikes to slow inflation further so they can meet their 2% inflation rate goals. Some are hoping the Fed will capitulate and pivot to avoid further hikes.
California Rent Prices
11 California cities ranked as most expensive for renters out of top 70 in the US according to a new report from Zumper. Here are the mid July California rent price stats provided by Zumper.com.
| 1 Bedroom | 2 Bedrooms | ||||||
| Rank | City | Price | M/M% | Y/Y% | Price | M/M% | Y/Y% |
| 2 | San Francisco, CA | $3,000 | 3.4% | 7.5% | $3,950 | -1.3% | 7.0% |
| 3 | San Jose, CA | $2,570 | 3.6% | 19.0% | $3,130 | 2.0% | 15.9% |
| 6 | Los Angeles, CA | $2,360 | 0.0% | 18.0% | $3,200 | 0.6% | 16.4% |
| 7 | San Diego, CA | $2,320 | -6.1% | 20.8% | $2,910 | -6.1% | 14.6% |
| 9 | Santa Ana, CA | $2,110 | 3.4% | 24.1% | $2,770 | -3.5% | 23.7% |
| 10 | Oakland, CA | $2,100 | 2.4% | 5.0% | $2,800 | 1.1% | 10.7% |
| 14 | Anaheim, CA | $1,860 | -2.6% | 12.0% | $2,470 | -6.1% | 22.3% |
| 18 | Long Beach, CA | $1,710 | -1.7% | 6.2% | $2,280 | -5.0% | 7.5% |
| 24 | Sacramento, CA | $1,600 | 0.0% | 8.8% | $1,980 | 1.0% | 7.6% |
| 31 | Fresno, CA | $1,520 | 6.3% | 25.6% | $1,680 | 5.0% | 15.1% |
| 69 | Bakersfield, CA | $1,060 | -1.9% | 9.3% | $1,380 | 0.7% | 15.0% |
CAR stats show lower income Californians were hurt by the pandemic and aren't participating in the recovery as yet. See more on the 2022 rental market forecast and the US rental market report.
California Rent Prices
Most CA city's rent prices declined during the month, although not as fast as other US cities. California cities took 6 out of the top 10 rankings for top prices in the US. Given housing prices are so high, buyers are into the rental market firmly now.
| 1 Bedroom | 2 Bedrooms | |||||
| City | Price | M/M% | Y/Y% | Price | M/M% | Y/Y% |
| San Francisco, CA | $3,020 | -2.6% | 7.9% | $4,060 | -2.6% | 5.2% |
| San Jose, CA | $2,600 | -6.1% | 12.6% | $3,230 | -2.1% | 13.3% |
| San Diego, CA | $2,500 | -4.6% | 21.4% | $3,210 | -6.1% | 17.6% |
| Los Angeles, CA | $2,410 | -2.4% | 12.6% | $3,300 | -0.9% | 11.9% |
| Oakland, CA | $2,200 | 0.0% | 10.0% | $2,770 | -3.1% | 4.5% |
| Santa Ana, CA | $2,150 | -0.5% | 20.8% | $2,770 | -4.5% | 9.1% |
| Anaheim, CA | $1,950 | -2.5% | 4.8% | $2,530 | -3.8% | 12.4% |
| Long Beach, CA | $1,800 | 0.0% | 11.8% | $2,420 | -3.2% | 12.6% |
| Fresno, CA | $1,420 | -4.1% | 16.4% | $1,620 | -5.8% | 2.5% |
Sales growth normally recedes in the fall months, but this fall season, the decline could be much steeper. Pending sales have been dropping even in the luxury home market. Pending sales of condos and townhomes have continued to drop.
California real estate is always a hot topic. Find out more about rental property investment is wise and how property management software is providing the foundation for profitable rental portfolios.
Read more on the San Francisco Market, San Diego market, and Los Angeles market.
Please note that CAR designates the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area as a 5- region that includes Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside , San Bernardino , and Ventura. The Bay Area includes: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma. And the Inland Empire includes Riverside and San Bernardino counties.
Is it a Good Time to Buy a Home in California?
According to C.A.R.'s monthly Consumer Housing Sentiment Index, in April, 59% of consumers said it was a good time to sell, up from 55% the previous. Only about 25% feel it is a good time to buy a home, unchanged from last year.
Certainly, the vaccinations will free up many older California residents perhaps to sell their homes at record prices. However, homeowners may be very cautious about relinquishing their valuable property when moving is difficult and costly, and homes are very hard to find. Without certain places to go, listings don't grow as expected.
It's absolutely the biggest seller's market ever across California. And perhaps more so for the pandemic destination cities within the state.
The top challenge to the housing market in CA now as the coming end of pandemic stimulus payments to homeowners, renters, and small businesses. The end of the eviction moratorium could throw a large number of homes onto the market as owners can't meet their mortgage obligations. The state's unemployment rate improved to 7.9% in May but remains one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation.
Relocating to New Cities for Safety, Room and Improved Lifestyle
CAR's forecast report shows the reasons people are relocating and buying, See some of that info below.
Sales and especially prices for condos in NAPA have rocketed (condo prices, see below, shot up almost 30% and sales rose 33% over February number). Condo prices in Shasta were up 81% over February and in Monterrey, were up 48%.
Although apartment rent prices are heading downward in the Bay Area as vacancy rates climb, other housing markets in the state are thriving. The demand is for single-family houses. It may be that when the pandemic is over, both the big cities and the rural regions will have evolved considerably.
Home listings continue to plummet which means price pressures could be intense as stimulus money arrives and the recovery begins. New funds would certainly help save landlords and the rental market, and support suburban housing markets around San Diego, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. See more on the Bay Area rental market.
Will California's Home Prices Continue to Rise into 2022?
A lot of buyers are asking whether home prices will rise or fall? Renters are wondering if rent prices will fall? High demand, low mortgage rates, and low inventory will likely skew homes and condo prices higher. The trend is here and the return of buyers is here. A number of factors are contributing to California's positive sales stats:
- desire to live away from the city in suburbs and rural regions and willingness top pay top dollar for homes
- record-low mortgage rates
- moving to regions (pandemic destination) that offer more room perhaps with an office or garden
- wealthy buyers have the funds ready
"Low rates and tight housing inventory are contributing factors to the statewide median price setting a new record high three months in a row from June to August. A change in the mix of sales is another variable that keeps pushing median prices higher, as sales growth of higher-priced properties continued to outpace their more affordable counterparts," said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young.
California Realtor's Survey
The latest survey of Realtors shows fewer are withdrawing offer, more are listing new properties, and are not optimistic about sales or prices.
California Housing Market Forecast
C.A.R. Predicted More Home Sales and Higher Prices for 2021: Leslie Appleton-Young delivered her updated California housing market forecast for 2021. She expected sales to continue to improve through 2021. The prediction is based on growing buyer demand that's pushed California's median price above $700,000 and low inventories that will cause price increases. As know now, sales have declined.
California's weekly showings index rose to 182.3% higher than it was in September of 2019. Mortgage rates have dropped back down and purchase applications rose 24.2% on an annual basis last week.
Screenshot courtesy of CAR.org and their 2021 Market Forecast.
California Economic Forecast
Car predicts a J-shaped economic recovery extending over the next 12 months. Of course this trend will affect home prices in the coming 6 months.
Infographic courtesy of CAR.org.
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This updated report covers important sats including home prices, sales, and recent home sales trends from CAR, NAR, DOT, St Louis Fed, NAHB, Statista, Zillow and more. For national home price tends see the US housing market.
The key story with Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, Santa Clara, San Diego, Orange County, Riverside, San Bernardino, etc. is the lack of listings.
See more on the US housing market, UK housing market, and Hawaii real estate market. Find the best property management company near you.
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